US, Russia regain strained “strategic stability” after Biden-Putin summit

The United States and Russia have agreed to return to “strategic stability”. Neither of the two powers is interested in a new cold war. But they did not hide their deep differences and agree that there is still a long way to go to get closer. Light years from the last summit, in 2018, in Helsinki, when Donald Trump was very comfortable with Vladimir Putin and he assured him that he believed the Russian when he told him that his country had not interfered in the 2016 presidential elections despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Trump also did not question the Kremlin’s human rights violations. During this meeting between Joe Biden and Putin, yesterday in Geneva, progress was announced – return of ambassadors, nuclear weapons, climate change – but the tension between the two presidents was remarkable regarding Russian hacker cyber attacks against US companies and public organizations and the treatment of dissidents such as Alexei Navalny.

“You don’t have to believe someone to come to an agreement”, Biden said at the press conference that followed. And he said he gave himself “3 or 6 months” to “see how it goes” with his Russian counterpart. According to his version, “I told him very clearly that the consequences (of continuing cyberattacks) would be devastating for Russia”. Putin again denied that his country was behind the interference and assured that Navalny “asked for it” and that is why he was in jail. “If he dies in prison, it will be a very bad sign of what Russia is”replied the American. The answer came during the separate press conference given by the leaders. “America,” Putin said, “supports opposition groups in Russia to weaken the country, since he considers Russia as an adversary ”.

The summit was held at Villa La Grange, a magnificent 18th century mansion on the shores of Lake Geneva overlooking the Jet d’Eau, the sip of water which rises for several meters and which is the emblem of Geneva. At the time of the photo shaking hands, the first clash happened but not between the presidents but among Russian and American journalists who entered the shoving and punching to get a better location. It was a scandal that both Putin and Biden witnessed with frozen smiles. “Nothing can replace a face-to-face meeting,” said the American. The Russian nodded and complained about the Zooms. Bodyguards put an end to the press and photo brawl. Thus began the first dialogue session which lasted an hour and 33 minutes. They were accompanied by the Secretary of State and the Russian Chancellor, in addition to the translators. They took 20 minutes of rest and consultation. And they continued with a second session of 1h27. For Putin, it was something already known, he had met four other American presidents: Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama and Trump. Biden was on his first trip to meet with European leaders and lay the foundations for your international policy.

He was a return to the essence of Russian-American relations. A déjà vu of what the United States and the then Soviet Union defined in 1990 as a relationship of “strategic stability”, which consists in the absence of incentives for a country to launch a first nuclear attack. Since then, the geopolitical, technological and psychological landscape that made it possible to prevent war between the world’s nuclear powers has changed dramatically. At the era of uncertainty that we go through and the scientific and technological revolution which gives it a framework, it is very difficult to define long-term policies. While some basic fundamentals are maintained, such as how to prevent military confrontation; manage global competition between the United States, China and Russia, and regional rivalries involving countries like Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel or North Korea; “Exercise unilateral and parallel restraint in deployments and doctrines”; and “building trust and other conflict prevention mechanisms”.

Biden’s arrival at the White House put an end to 25 years of interruption of competition and confrontation between the great powers. Trump had left a power vacuum exploited by China and Russia. The American leadership was already undermined by the financial crisis of 2008. Then, from 2014, Russia challenged the world order with interventions in Ukraine and Syria. Washington was barely trying to contain a rising China. Now return to the world stage of the United States ready to face not only to China directly and specifically, but also to Putin’s Russia. Biden made this clear when asked what he found in the character of Putin. “It’s not personal, it’s strictly commercial” (nothing personal, just business), paraphrased Al Pacino in The Godfather.

Biden is a born negotiator. He has demonstrated this throughout all of his years in Congress and is famous for his mediation on the ties between Democrats and Republicans. He is also friendly and very comfortable when it comes to international relations. It is part of their “expertise”. And that’s what led to a more ostentatious but diplomatically correct Putin. “There was no hostility”, said the Russian. “On the contrary, our meeting took place in a constructive spirit. And Biden added, “The tone of the whole meeting was good, positive.” But there were tensions. And big disagreements. Also an underlying threat. A good first step after Trump’s Mamut diplomacy. “We’ll see what happens in three or six months,” the American repeated, until a CNN reporter asked him the explosive question: What makes you think that Putin is going to change in 3 or 6 months?