USA – China and a war that goes beyond the commercial

That is why Beijing has decided to mitigate the shock of a game that loses, at least in the short term, the adoption of "good will" measures: the reduction of customs duties on imported vehicles, the resumption of the purchase of soybeans, do not devalue the yuan, or the introduction of a bill banning the forced transfer of technology, are among the most important. The ace in the sleeve will be for later and only in case it would be necessary to use it: China is the main holder of US bonds, which means that it can mobilize Wall Street. and the rest of the world markets with simple premeditated buying / selling movements.

However, Trump is betting on some economic data, as he was condemned by his predecessor Clinton, to bolster his tariff betting. According to him, the upward trend in GDP (+ 2.9% in 2018), the lowest unemployment rate in decades (3.8%), appropriate inflation levels (2.4% ) and the stability of macroeconomic fundamentals, among others, they are largely due to their aggressive protectionism policies. Although there is some truth in his declamation, whose outlines are of course more varied and more complex, his words are a powerful tool to retain the electorate in the run up to presidential elections next year.

With three specific discursive lines, he holds a& # 39; enemy & # 39;for a society that, for the most part, fervently accepts the dichotomous struggle between good and evil. The $ 500,000 million trade deficit per year, the& # 39; Flight & # 39;intellectual property, or subsidy to state-owned enterprises are factual facts that can not be discussed with Trump. In addition,& # 39; Demonization & # 39;China is the real value-added: the trade deficit is synonymous with lack of work and poverty in the United States, technological flight confers on China a differential in a potential future war, and the government's control policies are synonymous with crushing communism.

For its part, critics of neoliberals, who claim, among other things, that American consumers will end up paying more expensive products, Trump does not know: Washington says that the movements would have a"Short-term pain"but the situation will change positively in the future. BREXIT is an example: the great fright that has fostered European leadership and markets, with the support of mainstream media, has not prevented an orderly transition so far. History has shown that countries do not go bankrupt, that economies are accommodating (the UK is already entering into trade and financial agreements with third parties) and that what is really important is the technical and moral soundness of government institutions.

Why, for example, do not you expect, for example, to find other suppliers or other markets in Southeast Asia, where you can outsource production and trade lost with the China? It is reasonable that there are always costs; even more than the process of adaptation takes time. But this is nothing that can not be solved. Meanwhile and to counter this potential scenario, Xi promised the"Abolition of regulations, subsidies and unjustified practices that alter competition and markets".Those who kissed from China created the"Market socialism"in the 1980s and ended up securing them in 2001 when, with their membership, they agreed to comply with the regulations imposed by the World Trade Organization.

It is clear that Xi's naivety is pure speculation: he only hopes, calmly and completely, that a multi-pronged storm will subside (like the extradition requested by the United States for Huawei's director at Canada, or even friction with the United States Navy in the South China Sea), then, when the political bureau deems it appropriate, to resume the initiative and pursue its plans for growth and development, until it becomes the main economic, political and military power of the world.

(*) Economist and Doctor in International Relations. Author of the book "The Anesthetized Society." The World Economic System from the Citizens' Point of View.