USA o China: who will win the great war?

The trade war between the United States and China grow despite the promises of
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping that their countries will eventually reach an agreement. And while the United States and China are playing the battle of tariffs, the world is suffering. International organizations and specialists warn that the trade war is already slowing global growth and that it could, in the coming years, neutralize any progress.

The rivalry between Washington and Beijing is, however, much more than economic or commercial, it's an open struggle for world domination, so big and unprecedented that in the State Department, it's even bigger than the Cold War. In this case, he faces not two governments but two civilizations.

Will the United States succeed in imposing itself on China as it did in the Soviet Union? Or will the unparalleled cargo of China allow it to be what it has wanted so many times in its history: the great hegemonic power of the world? Who will win?

The answer is neither simple nor clear nor precise and, according to the hypothesis of conflicts opposed by the two governments, does not exclude the possibility of an increased confrontation, an open war that would put the world in check, even from Argentina. Today, this confrontation develops and feeds on the axes that determine the partial and temporary triumph of one or the other power.

Global influence

Ni Xi or
Trump hide their global ambitions; Moreover, nationalists and populists are almost alike and see this struggle for world influence as a means of baderting their inner power. The two countries could not be more different in what they offer to the world and in the way they seek to conquer it. Throughout the twentieth century, the United States became the great guardian of liberal democracy, a model that prevailed in the West but is starting to weaken today.

With Xi, in this century, China is the model of the authoritarian and vigilant state of the semi-open economy, a paradigm that Beijing does not hesitate to encourage in other countries using methods less ostentatious than those used by the United States.

The spread of these models is directly related to the economic power of both. The diplomacy of the dollar is essential for both powers and relies on the strength of the two economies, the first of the major axes of enmity.

Economic weight

"What is the best? 6.2 or 2.1? Let everyone draw their conclusions," said the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman about the current growth rate of the Chinese and foreign economy in front of a room filled with local and foreign journalists. North American At first glance, the Chinese rate seems the healthiest, but it is not necessarily the case.

China has several troubling challenges, both political and economic. Although the country's historical economy may outpace that of North America in a decade, the trade war is now causing it more damage than that of the United States. This is in addition to the absence of structural reforms and a huge debt burden involving the Chinese and their companies. China must continue to grow with the dizziness of recent decades to strengthen its middle clbad and convert the model of a labor-intensive market into a technology-intensive market.

Persecuted closely by its enemy, the US economy is experiencing its largest period of expansion in recent history. And President Trump seeks to capitalize on the moment of prosperity to dissociate the US economy from China, exploit this advantage and perpetuate it. It's not just an economic issue, it's a national security issue due to the presence of tech giants in the North American market.

Military power

Military power is one of the major axes of the war for world domination, because it is in it that deterrence or the ability to shoot before possible attacks. Neither Beijing nor Washington hide their military ambitions, so the experts are talking about a new arms race.

Today, his biggest contention hypothesis is no longer terrorism, as in the first decade of the century, but confrontation with another great power. As in the Cold War, the United States is now facing global influence with China and, to a lesser extent, with Russia, particularly in Europe.

Washington's military power has no comparison, but the US government knows that Beijing is following closely. The US release of the nuclear arms treaty is a challenge to Russia, but especially to China. Today, the US nuclear arsenal is much larger than the Chinese (6000 nuclear warheads against about 300), but the impressive leap in the quantity and quality of the arsenal and deployment Beijing military increasingly worries Washington and pushes him to consider confrontational scenarios. war in Asia, where a series of conflicts begins to worsen.

Technological development

Although many governments are wondering about its methods (especially espionage), China is increasingly bridging the technological gap in trying to move from the labor-intensive to the high-tech economy. technology intensity to compete at all levels and USA This offensive goes from race to space to cyber espionage and is particularly aggressive in terms of artificial intelligence; in this sector, it involves not only the government but also Chinese universities and enterprises.

Where is Argentina?

The war of low intensity between the two superpowers is so great that their blows reach all regions. While Asia is the main scenario of confrontation and tension, Latin America is not spared from this impact, which is for the moment commercial and economic.

Argentina has very similar trade relations with China and the United States; in contrast, North American investment is larger, but the Chinese are growing faster. With a still-weak economy and low global integration, the country can not afford to align with this or that capital, as Beijing and Washington are increasingly looking for.

Argentina's political and economic diplomacy is confronted with the challenge of permanent acrobatics to feed the relationship with the two superpowers who will define the near future of the world.