USD Breathing IMF, Corn and Threat Risk – 17/03/2019

In another week of ups and downs on Friday, he touched give in to the dollar wholesaler more than 2% and oscillate at $ 40. A reasonable low.

With this move, relief has reached the markets and Casa Rosada. The Minister Nicolás Dujovne He got off the plane that brought them from Washington on Friday and went straight to Olivos to tell the president Mauricio Macri the scope of permission from the IMF to Treasury has to sell $ 9,600 million in the market, buy pesos and, essentially, try to keep the dollar under control.

A big dollar below $ 40 speaks of a 4% drop from the price of end of September when he was at $ 41.25, the highest level of the period measured point to point.

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Dujovne also pointed out that a long convoy of trucks in front of the port of Ramallo was pushing for thousands of tons of corn to be shipped in what is considered the beginning of the stadium. strong entry dollars of harvest.

It is the export of corn that would give more box on the ground in the short term. So many things are not expected now from the soy. Exporters believe that producers could deliver the delivery product waiting for better prices.

that USD 9.6 billion from the IMF starting to return to the market at a rate of 60 million US dollars starting in April implies an increased supply of foreign currency in a context where the weights will be very rare, as announced by the head of the central bank, Guido Sandleris.

Sandleris's threat to inflation is that will dry the market so that in the absence of pesos, interest rates become strong and thus favor the reduction of stocks.

This logic, about primary, is favorable in that the rate pressure to be such that sellers choose to lower prices in the search for pesos to finance them or place them fixed term.

The context of this tactic against inflation has the double objective that the interest rate I beat inflation and help keep the dollar at bay. Recent experience has allowed Sandleris to declare Thursday that, if the rate rises, inflation of 3.8% in February would have been only 2.9%. An enormity

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While Dujovne badumes his responsibilities by refusing to make inflation forecasts, private badysts believe that the cost of living could finally resume growing in May. below 2%.

In the unusual Argentina after six months of virtually immobile dollars measured between points and validity of a very contracting inflation of monetary policy it does not converge to the 20% annual which has been the average of the last years.

Inflation makes 51.3% over the last year and targets, according to the expectations of private badysts, to reach 29% by the end of the year.

The bottom of all the measures of the last days repeats a clbadic short term from the Argentine economy: there is a foreign lender, there are the field dollars and a peso interest rate of the order of the 64% per year for banks, that allow financial gains for little, and a possible currency stability which becomes the main economic argument of the ruling party in the months leading up to the elections.

In this context, relegated the negative impact high rates on sales, corporate progress and even tax collection.

The recession hits hard (despite the fact that she's starting to talk about the economy "touched floor") and decrease in pension recovery in real terms, there is clearly talk of the problems of employment in industry and commerce. Over the weekend at the Central Bank, Economy and Casa Rosada, they thought they had overcome another shock of the exchange rate and turned to the long-awaited stability of the dollar.

At the same time, financial system operators also showed some relief from the rise in stocks and the recovery of bonds after weeks of laxity. "Today we ordered a pizza" A financial expert said Friday to celebrate that another storm would have been left behind.