Venezuela and its geopolitical council

The statements of the Venezuelan opposition and several US officials go in the direction of the media to prepare the Latin American and American public opinion for a possible intervention of Washington in Venezuela. It is widely accepted that the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro could take shape. What scenario could it look like?

In both Syria and Libya, the West and the Arab Gulf countries financed armed mercenaries who, under the pretext of forming Islamist forces, became the armed force on the ground that NATO did not have. Thus, while the United States, France and Britain were bombing Gaddafi 's army, the rebels took oil wells from eastern Libya to drown the government and shut down the government. seize the main wealth of the country. In Syria, something similar happened, but the American intervention arrived several years later and hardly attacked Al Assad. But the war of attrition against mercenary rebels left 300,000 dead. In Iraq, the scenario was a direct intervention from 2003.

None of this is waiting for Venezuela in the short term, if Donald Trump decides to act directly.

In March and April 2011, as the world closely followed the invasion of Libya, located several kilometers south of the Ivory Coast, France was supporting in the field the dissident armed forces of the candidate for the presidency, Albadane Ouattara, who was trying to take by force since 1993. The other candidate was President Laurent Gbagbo, former friend of the West, fallen out of favor with the rebel and French offensive. Both presidents declared themselves winners of the elections. Without any certainty about the winner, France supported the candidate who suited him to intervene directly in the field.

The humanitarian aid that the United States intends to enter Venezuela is the second phase for which they are trying to destabilize Nicolás Maduro's government. The first concerns economic sanctions added to the political and economic support of the opposition, through NGOs, as happened in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

Between the crates containing drugs and food, weapons for the dissident military could be added, despite the fact that since the time of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has brigades of armed civilians who "protect the Bolivarian revolution", a measure very dangerous that could lead to a civil war.

Cúcuta would be the crossing point of Colombia, chosen to enter Venezuela what they intend to introduce. Recall that Cúcuta is bordering the state of Táchira, one of the areas where the opposition is the strongest.

The same deserted soldiers would be responsible for distributing, in principle, boxes sent by Donald Trump.

The other points of entry would be the border with the Brazilian city of Roraima and the north via the Netherlands Antilles, from where NATO has observed Venezuela with drones for ten years. Despite the fact that bombings took place at the pbadage of the army, the helicopter attack against the Superior Court of Justice and a drone against President Nicolás Maduro, there is still no Armed opposition that can cope with military loyal to the government. As a result, it is very difficult to replicate the scenarios in the Middle East. But, it is clear that something is getting ready. It is very likely that there is a low-intensity war of attrition, but for this first time, the government must be totally drowned economically and the army must respond to the call to the rebellion of the president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó.

While Mexico, Uruguay and Bolivia are trying to bring the parties together and promote a new presidential election involving all sectors, President Maduro enjoys economic support from Russia and China., who do not try to lose what they have invested in the country, mainly in oil, minerals, millionaire loans and arms sales. Maduro and the opposition have repeatedly skipped the Constitution by taking measures contrary to the division of powers. Although the president has had constitutional anomalies, the most difficult dialogue is the solution, with international mediators. As, Venezuela is already forming a geopolitical network of confrontation of the United States and its Latin American satellites against Russia and China.

Never has a hidden foreign intervention of humanitarian and democratic aid brought peace or well-being to the population, on the contrary. There are many examples of recent tragedies.

* International badyst (@ Bruixland).