Venezuela and the dangerous Nicaraguan model

They are about to put Juan Guaidó in prison. Nicolás Maduro and the Cuban services have him. The arrest of Edgar Zambrano, first vice president of the National Assembly, is a dress rehearsal of President Guaidó's arrest. They are trying the ground. Maduro and Raul Castro came to the conclusion that it was not possible to control power with another home of authority released in Venezuela. I do not mention the Cuban "president" Miguel Díaz-Canel, because he is the one who does the shopping.

They propose to totally destroy the National Assembly by accusing it of "treason against the fatherland". Madness does not care that no one believes it. The game consists of developing parallel alibis to "explain" the disaster. There is hyperinflation because of Venezuela today, a web page managed by "the enemies of the fatherland". There is a shortage of food and medicine due to the US embargo. There are power cuts and lack of clean water because John Bolton decided and personally headed the mess. Venezuelans escape from paradise, disturbed by the siren song of capitalist opponents. The truth does not matter. Only the story.

The Cuban regime is desperate, but is developing its strategy to stay afloat. Raúl fears street riots resulting from shortages. He needs the Venezuelan grant, Dracula needing the blood dose of his victims. The "apparatus" of Havana's intelligence services believes, at this point, that Donald Trump is a barking dog, but not a biting dog. That's why they treat him with silk gloves and reserve the thickest batteries against Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Elliot Abrams. The hard core that supports Guaidó. These are the enemies who must attach. They are the "teeth", although they lack the strength to use the weight of American weapons.

The conclusion drawn by Cuban intelligence regarding Trump is based on some logic. If you want to withdraw from the Middle East, what would be the point of sending troops to Venezuela? S & he is able to weaken NATO or the European Union, because he is convinced that his country pays the lion's share and derives no benefit from it why would Latin America play the role of "leader of the free world" when are Latin Americans the most affected? If the chubby North Korea is sometimes the rocket man and others, a reliable boy, why fear the tenant of the White House? You know that they are in front of a salesman who says no matter what and threat, but does not use the stick.

However, Nicolás Maduro feels the past. That Cuba understands it. He came to power smuggling. In early 2013, upon the death of Hugo Chávez, the Cuban regime chose him not for his virtues, but for his weaknesses. He "played" at Diosdado Cabello, but he was a rogue too independent who did not follow the orders of anyone. Maduro, on the other hand, was obedient and would maintain the only thing that would interest Havana: the supply of oil and money. not sancto the nomenclatures of the two dictatorships were distributed, along with this glorious "enterprise" by means of which a Cuban "enterprise" leased PDVSA a million dollars a day to an oil rig from Maracaibo Lake. The current bill was half a million dollars every day from God, but by triangulating the costs of Havana, they magically doubled.

Maduro must leave the game to save Cuban interests. Maduro accepts. Everyone already knows that the new man in Cuba is General Vladimir Padrino López, leader of the armed forces, who aborted the coup d'etat of April 30 and deceived the enemy intelligence services.. But how to make the change? One possibility is to convince the Lima group, the United States and the opposition itself of the need to resolve the crisis through the "Nicaraguan model".

What is it? In 1990, the Sandinista dictatorship held elections in the hope of winning them, as almost all polls have indicated, including those ordered by Washington. But the unthinkable happened: Dona Violeta Chamorro carried it off by far, as Oscar Arias had predicted after seeing Borge y Asociados' poll, a modest undertaking that perfectly guessed it.

At that time, the Sandinistas had against the majority of the population and against the United States, but they kept the military apparatus. So they made an unseemly proposition that everyone ended up agreeing to get out of this nest. The Sandinistas would admit defeat at the polls in exchange for remaining at the helm of the armed forces without the new government being able to control them. Before taking office, they would eliminate the worst opponents. It was then that they murdered dozens of "Contra" heads.

Havana thinks that Maduro's exit may occur in the same way with a variant: impeccable elections in which Chavismo would surely be defeated, but Padrino López would be at the head of the armed forces. and the petroleum agreement for doctors, vital for Cuba, would be respectedand the return to the mild climate that prevailed between the two countries of the Obama era, under pain of letting go in the United States another Camarioca, another Mariel, another "balserazo", because the island is full of supposed emigrants eager to reach the United States. United and the economic crisis worsens every turn of the Helms-Burton law.

Hopefully that will not happen and the Venezuelan Democrats will not admit it. It is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. Thirty years after the 1990 elections, Daniel Ortega and Sandinismo continue to gravitate towards Nicaragua, while 21st century socialism is maintained in this country, in Venezuela and Bolivia, orchestrated by Havana. Padrino is not only the head of the armed forces, just like General Humberto Ortega in Nicaragua. He is the protector of a narco-state ally of the Middle East terrorists. EThe problem is not solved with patches, but with drastic measures. It's time for the iron surgeons, not for the bandages.