Victory of moderation – Infobae

The mbadive voter turnout (of nearly 74%), with seven points higher than in 2016, is one of the relevant data from these elections. This is very good news, because after the reform of the LOREG (organic law of the general electoral system) last October, more than 100,000 people with intellectual disabilities were able to exercise their right to vote for the first time . Another relevant fact is the extraordinary number of postal votes with a total of 1,241,728 Spaniards who decided to exercise their right to vote by correspondence. All this democratic vitality continues to have its weak point in some difficulties that Spaniards still have to exercise their right to vote abroad..

In any case, the Spanish citizens have spoken clearly, mbadively and we have some conclusions:

1 The socialist victory is very strong. It has almost doubled seats PP. The election result would strengthen the leadership of Pedro Sánchez and the decision to call elections before it is impossible to approve the general budgets. Sánchez, in just ten months of government, increases his parliamentary representation by more than 40 seats, destroys his main rival (PP) and has two majorities of government possible with can and another with The citizens. But despite the huge antiVox mobilization, the PSOE has not exceeded 30%.

2 Pablo Casado, the popular leader, faces three open crises: leadership (internal), project (not to summarize to have an alternative majority left) and hegemony in the block of three rights (with very close citizens, a few seats away and with the entry of Vox the scene bluntly ). Married has failed in strategy and performance.

3. The citizens had an important success. The collapse of the PP and the good result of the formation of Albert Rivera it allows him, even, to be a government alternative with the PSOE. The pressure of establishment international and national so that the coalition of the center (PSOE and citizens) is the government's stable option will be very strong. Sánchez and Rivera have been particularly tough in the debates, with strong personal accusations … but pragmatism can open scenarios that were not predictable until a few hours ago.

4. We may have had a better result than predicted by the surveys. The good performance of Pablo Iglesias in both debates is part of this success, as well as the strategic complementarity between Podemos and PSOE. The violets have understood that the virtuous competition between the two formations is better than the rivalry of sorpbado long waited – it's only been a few years – and it seems nowadays more far than ever.

5. Vox burst, but does not change the majorities and does not cause an electoral turnaround, as some polls, many rumors and not a few. false news they claimed in the last few hours. Your success is important but not successful. He led the PP into more reactionary positions … but failed to add or mobilize other votes beyond the right block. Vox broke out but, finally, he stimulated the sociological left with mbadive participation.

6. The independents will not, it seems, have the key … but they have shown that nothing is solved without them. They grow up in Catalonia and in the Pays Basque. Historical participation in both communities and only Catalan separatists occupy almost the same seats as Vox throughout the state.

Finally, in the Spanish democratic system, and contrary to the motion of censure with which Pedro Sánchez was elected president last year, the nomination motion does not require 176 votes. They are more Yes it is What it is not in the second round of the inaugural session. Therefore, the sum of the yes (PSOE + UP), relative to the sum of the no (PP + Cs + VOX), and the rest abstaining (the separatists); Sánchez could be president at the end of May and perhaps before the municipal elections.

Sánchez will be president. Iglesias will have ministers. Rivera hopes to be the alternative to the leftwing government while devouring the PP. Married has serious problems. Vox rubs his hands while waiting to bite. And the nationalists and the independenceists have gained time for the negotiations to end with a strong government and not threatened by the right. Moderation has won.