Votes Spain: the time of the emerging parties, with Vox as a possible key

As never before, the focus is not on the traditional PSOE and PP, but on the strengths that have emerged in recent years; Sánchez leaves as a favorite

MADRID.- Spanish politics is paying the price of today 's general elections. But as rarely as it can be, fragmentation makes it as important as knowing who stays with La Moncloa, who grows up and backs off as a citizen expression. In the traditional puja between right and left, the time is up to the emerging parties: citizens, Podemos and, most feared, Vox defy socialism (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP).

"I think that for the first time in our history, it is just as decisive as knowing who is the most voted, but who is second, third and fourth," he said.
THE NATION Francisco Camas, from the consulting firm Demoscopia.

This is why the performance of emerging parties generates as much attention as the traditions of the People's Party (PP), on the right, and the Official Party of Spanish Socialist Workers (PSOE), on the left.

Polls indicate that, with a bit of favorable wind, political mathematics could throw tonight that the Socialist Pedro Sanchez legitimizes, by a complex alliance, the presidency, arrived ten months ago for an unprecedented motion of censure.

But the Spanish radiography that emerges from the vote and its coexistence model is almost as significant as that. As one would expect, the country that eats today will not be the same as the one who wants to eat, after the opening of the ballot boxes and the establishment of. a new political map.

It will be the same for a fearful Europe before the development of extreme expressions in the rest of the bloc. Something that, until the arrival of Vox, Spain, its fourth economy, seemed on the sidelines. Maybe the left is ruling. But Vox is the big riddle. Will it be a wave or a tsunami? Nobody knows for sure. From what there is no doubt, it will move the waters as never before in the country panorama.

The most conservative polls give him 10% of the vote. This means a parliamentary group of 30 to 35 lawmakers in a congress of 350.

It would be fifth place in a five-year career. But with enough strength to be heard and impose conditions. A major breakthrough for a party that today has no headquarters and which until recently was the typical jester to which political humor programs were appealing to make people laugh.

The bolder probes give you double. Francisco Carrera, who has the merit of being the only sounder to have achieved his breakthrough in the Andalusian regional region last December, has allocated 70 deputies and the third rank, behind the PP and socialism. As on this occasion, no one today shares his criteria.

Nobody doubts, however, that their electorate is the most motivated. His calls, in which the charismatic pontifica of Santiago Abascal "still love Spain", were the envy of others, who had to call on the old resource of the bus rental for fill the stadiums.

One of the puzzles that will be unveiled tonight is whether filling stadiums, as Vox did, automatically results in the filling of ballot boxes.

The other mystery is the behavior of the right as a whole. "For the first time in history, it's the right that gets the most confused to the polls," said Narciso Michavila, of Gad3, one of the most respected and listened demographers from the country. He described it graphically: "The elector on the right gets up from Vox, he's from PP at noon and Citizens at dinner time."

The three forces are fighting each other in a brutal struggle for hegemony that, between insults and side pbades, blurs the end of the campaign and encourages the feeling of victory of the left.

Knowing who is in charge right will be one of the keys of the day.

Does the PP flow? Pablo Casado, the conservative replacement of former President Mariano Rajoy, is preparing for the worst bloodshed in decades. The 134 banks he owns could be reduced to 70. Some say even less.

Today can be one of the worst nights of Casado, the man who, by surprise, jumped to the bar of the traditional strength of the Spanish right, with the blessing of the former president José María Aznar.

Liberal citizens are also put to the test. His leader, Hyperkinetic Albert Rivera – the man who most interrupted the debate – is confident that he will double his 32 seats and that he will surpbad even the PP, for which he has lost respect. "We are very close," he said.

Both, PP and Citizens, fear Vox. Thanks to their own mistakes – in some cases corruption, and continuous changes of position, in others – those of Abascal eliminate their constituents. "Vox is transverse, but the essence of the catch comes from the right," says Michavila.

The right will be redeveloped tonight and the question is whether he will be able to establish a coexistence after the confusion and the naked internal struggle with which the campaign has ended.

Cohabitation on the left seems clearer. Sánchez's dream is to form a government with the radical left of Podemos, which has rebounded in the final stretch, and with the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV).

But if that does not happen to him, the juggling will begin. There are all kinds. Including a flirtation with the liberals of the citizens.

On the right side, the sum would be between PP, Citizens and Vox. But today, it seems difficult to reach 176% of the majority.

At 22:30 (17:30, our country's time) begin to unveil the unknown, and with him, the new map of the Spanish society.

Pablo Iglesias, the voice of the indignant who lost their momentum

Origin: Madrid

Age: 40 years

Family: married, two children

Leader of Podemos, the radical leftist party that imposed itself as the institutional voice of the "outraged" movement three years ago was an undeniable emerging figure. Today, he is fighting to keep training in fourth place after a major crisis in his party and his own mistakes. Among them, he moved to a big house in a closed neighborhood after having censored the politicians who live like this and feel the problems of ordinary people. "During the last legislature, he faced strong internal tensions that have come to an end even with the departure of the leaders of some of the most prominent figures and his companions during the founding of the group.Iglesias argues that they are "the only guarantee" of a leftist government in Spain and insists that the ruling party, the PSOE, will eventually "accept the right of Ciudadanos".

Pedro Sánchez, the challenge of being president, this time with votes

Origin: Madrid

Age: 47

Family: married, two children

He is the first president to come to power in Spain with a motion of censure. Now, seek to be revalidated in the position. His story is one of the "second chances". He was defended by the direction of socialism and was able to return. Now, in the presidency, he has had to call a general election, in which he seeks to win. He managed to cut with the traditional party line: he does not enjoy the sympathy of former President Felipe González nor much of his environment. Underestimated both inside and outside of his party, the Madrilenian economist was astonished in revealing himself to be a tough guy, an image that uses his election poster, a Black and white photo in which he looks serious, with a cinematic look. It tries to transmit the security and the force before the crucial moment that lives Spain. His motto was "put a cordon sanitaire" on the right.

Albert Rivera, the moderate who is betrayed by his nerves

Origin: Barcelona

Age: 39 years old

Family: divorced, a girl

President and founder of Citizens, born in 2006 in Barcelona, ​​of liberal roots and whose slogan was "common sense". He was the voice of moderation, although in this campaign he turned more to the right, in the competition with Vox. A clever and dialectical speaker, he was the winner of the first of two presidential debates, but his constant tension and nervousness played against him during the second and last part of the campaign. The expectations and popularity of his party, an emerging force for those seeking new colors in Parliament, are largely due to his charisma. However, its success is not unambiguous and although some people appreciate it, others call it populist. His proposal is to defeat the People's Party (PP) and become the reference of the right.

Pablo Casado, a young face for a worn match

Origin: Palencia

Age: 38 years old

Family: married, two children

Last July, he was elected to head the PP. He decided to print a right turn, like the former president José María Aznar, and was separated from his predecessor, the former president Mariano Rajoy. The arrival of Casado was perceived as the step forward of a new generation of politicians within the party, generating internal antipathies by displacing traditional personalities. Before his arrival at the leadership of the party, July 21, 2018 – through internal elections, during which the former vice president Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría was imposed – the PP had already become a important competitor for the center, Ciudadanos. it defied his hegemony. But the surprise emergence of Vox, right, makes fear a setback. His campaign motto was the need to "reunite the right" under the direction of the PP. Something that is now in doubt.

Santiago Abascal, the surprise that claims traditionalism

Origin: Bilbao

Age: 43

Family: married, four children

He comes from the PP and was an adviser to the Basque Country when, with the active ETA terrorist band, it earned him a white potential. In November 2013, he announced that he was giving up the PP, alleging irreconcilable discrepancies with his address. He expressed his disagreement with the results obtained by the party in the corruption cases that are being extended there, with the anti-terrorist policy against Rajoy ETA and the Basque Country's PP and with the anti-terrorist policy. Basque and Catalan nationalism. He declares himself an uncompromising politician who embodies "the true causes" of Spain – and the radical right. It connects emotionally with the public, justifies the "traditional" of Spain, as hunting and bullfighting and its imperial past. He despises gender movements and feminism. It does not have a strong government program. His main speech is criticism of the traditional "corrupt and cowardly" politics.