Watch out for the Argentine Stock Exchange after the negative signals from abroad

The future of global markets this weekend was not the best for Western stock markets. They predict a Monday when, if they do not lose, they will get bad profits. The East, which opened in the night of the West, showed all its indicators in negative territory at the opening.

They were not worried. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell nearly 0.50% and Chinese stock markets lost as much as 0.30%, while Japan followed suit with a 0.41% decline.

The European bags they quoted forward quotations in red, as did the three major indexes of the New York Stock Exchanges. More than pessimism, we must speak of caution. Because the balance sheets that will be presented this week in New York – about 60 – offer good prospects. Coca Cola, Pepsico and Under Armor, among others.

But the positive business results out of concern for negotiations between the US and China on tariff war that need to be resolved before the beginning of March. Also, on Friday the US government will determine if the public administration closes again to force the Democrats to approve the funds needed to build the wall that separates them from Mexico.

Another important fact of this week will be known Wednesday: the consumer price index. Analysts do not expect big changes. And it's important that the data is stable, because that's what governs the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

This preamble is used to define what in Argentina, one should not expect the stock market to recover from the last two declines or, at least, if it does, be selective.

The dollar, for its part, could have an effect on the price, but it could close up, but without strength. There are no pesos in the square that support any attempt at an unexpected rise in the currency of the United States. This situation allows the Central Bank to continue lowering its interest rates, but the market is worried that the end of this series of reductions in the liquidity letters will slow down. The rates paid to the saver are the least convincing part of keeping them away from the dollar.

The vulnerable side of the monetary plan is that the fixed terms are not renewed and that the banks begin to deliver to Central Leliq in exchange for pesos to restore to savers what they had put in term. But badysts see this horizon for March or April.

Another data that can be complicated is the country risk. This external scenario is not ideal for Argentine bonds, so bonds may experience difficulties because of the price of their parities.

When the stock markets do not rise, two badets are developing: gold and US Treasury bonds.who are the ones who influence the country risk of other nations.

The summer is calming because the euphoria that has led Wall Street to five consecutive increases in caution has declined.