Wave of explicit kirchnerism covers Guzmán’s orthodox turn

HThere are two political assumptions about the contradictions exposed by the ruling coalition. The first is that Argentina is faced with a government in dispute, in which different factions are trying to give direction to the administration. The second is that it is a classic strategy of Peronism, with which it monopolizes the role of the ruling party and the opposition. However, the result ends up being the same: the country is steeped in economic uncertainty.

Martín Guzmán attempted a turn towards economic orthodoxy when President Alberto Fernández summoned him to stop the rise of the dollar. The minister ordered to lower the level of the monetary issue – excessive this year due to the pandemic -; he projected a 2021 budget without the extraordinary expenses of ATP and IFE; and approved the new formula for calculating pensions which, by ignoring the inflation index, will alleviate the depletion of public funds.

The Minister of the Economy ordered the issuance of dollarized bonds -a 20 years, with a very expensive rate of 17 percent-, an instrument with which he succeeded in lowering the price of the “blue” dollar at the time where he was about to receive Buenos Aires. Aires to the mission of the Monetary Fund. On the political front, Vice-President Cristina Kirchner agreed to a surprise meeting with Martín Redrado, from whom she had been separated for years, to which Guzmán appears to have responded with a photo with Miguel Pesce of the Central Bank.

As soon as the summer exchange rate erupted and the government estimated that the parallel dollar would not cross the 200 peso “destitution line”, the political nature of Kirchnerism returned to the scene. Guzmán himself suffered from this in the last session of the Senate, as he came to celebrate the approval of the 2021 budget, but he found an unusual “technical error” which ended with the return of ” law of laws “in the Chamber of Deputies.

DIFFERENCES WITH MASSA

During the session, chaired by Cristina, it was clear that Kirchnerism was not in line with the priorities that Guzmán had set for himself. “It is far from a federal budget,” warned Senator Oscar Parrilli de Neuquén. Apart from the fact that certain forms of public works planned for next year were misplaced, the return of the initiative to deputies seemed symbolic: the vice-president will not be on the photo approving the budget of “the” adjustment ”in the state.

He will also not receive, like Sergio Massa, IMF envoys to guarantee political support for the program Guzmán is negotiating. The head of the Chamber of Deputies criticized former President Mauricio Macri, who went to the Fund in the midst of the 2018 crisis, but in the end he was permeable to the line followed by Guzmán, with the endorsement of ‘Alberto. Fernandez. Cristina, for her part, asked her son Máximo to dust off the tax on large fortunes.

The followers of the Vice, including dozens of national deputies and senators, were already wondering if the “solidarity contribution” had been only a smoke bomb to keep big businessmen at bay. Some even saw the slowdown of the project as a betrayal of their political ideals. For this reason, the inclusion of the initiative on the agenda of the extraordinary session of the Lower House for next Tuesday relieved the Kirchnerist ranks of the Frente de Todos.

Despite the delay in processing the project, which has had an opinion in the lower house for two months, the head of the FdT bloc has not remained politically silent: his request to convene the extraordinary session was accompanied by Federal blocks, Among them are those referenced by Roberto Lavagna and the governor of Cordoba, Juan Schiaretti, who announces a vote in favor of the initiative around 135 affirmative votes.

MAXIMUM HOUR

In the Senate, meanwhile, the project would have a floor of 40 votes, but the subsequent collection of some 300 billion pesos – from some 10,000 large taxpayers, according to the ruling party – would go directly to judicialization. Even within the ruling party, there were sectors that demanded to be treated as part of a tax reform, to avoid “double taxation” or “confiscatory excess”. Experts in the field believe that the charge could be brought before the Supreme Court.

In addition, some technicians point out that the very heavy tax burden can produce the opposite effect from that sought. They point out that several large taxpayers have already established tax domicile in other countries, as happened years ago in France, and they cite the case of Sweden, which reduced the tax burden to attract or retain entrepreneurs and achieved significant results. More closely, several countries such as Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Peru have programs specially aimed at foreigners in order to attract investment and to offer facilities to those who can set up new businesses, taking the example of European countries.

At the same meeting on Tuesday, Máximo also demanded that his project to “protect ecosystems from accidental or intentional fires” be addressed with a ban on selling scorched land between periods ranging from 30 to 60 years. The FdT deputy leader argues that this will prevent such maneuvers to facilitate real estate businesses, while the opposition warns that the law will threaten the establishment of investments.

Despite his low profile, the son of the former president will be one of the protagonists of the week that begins. The Cámpora called for a demonstration in Congress on the day of the deputies’ session not only to support Máximo’s plans, but also to speculate on the possibility that President Fernández would send the abortion legalization project on that day. “This is the goal,” said a leader of the not-so-young leaders Kirchner organization yesterday.

Campers have political ambitions. For next year, they want to place the head of ANSES, Fernanda Raverta, at the top of the list of candidates for national deputies of the province of Buenos Aires. As it stands, they will depend on whether the new formula for calculating pensions will harm retirees. Otherwise, they will leave to the opposition – which is trying to rebuild on the territory of Buenos Aires – the questions served on a plate.

BETWEEN FERRARESI AND BELIZ

The appointment of Jorge Ferraresi to the Ministry of Housing to replace María Eugenia Bielsa has been interpreted as a request for reconciliation from President Fernández to Cristina, since they have not spoken since the vice published the famous letter in which he was referring to the “officials who do not work” on October 26. The mayor of Avellaneda – now in possession of a license – and second at Instituto Patria, just behind Parrilli, has always been Cristina’s favorite in the Conurbano.

Like Cristina and Máximo, Ferraresi does not like mass media microphones, but will have former Racing player Hugo Lamadrid as his spokesperson. Bielsa’s departure had been announced for weeks, but Rosario resisted until the end: an appeal from the Chief of Staff, Santiago Cafiero, and a subsequent appeal from the president confirmed that she would no longer be a minister. He must now answer Fernández if he agrees to replace the late Pino Solanas in front of UNESCO.

The list of possible changes in Cabinet remains long. Most “Albertists”

The list of possible changes in Cabinet remains long and has one characteristic: all appointed officials are considered “Albertists”. No one is telling the FdT that Pedro’s Kirchnerist Wado (Interior) or Massista Mario Meoni (Transport) should leave. But the name of Gustavo Beliz, the secretary who caught the coronavirus and forced the president to isolate himself, is on everyone’s lips: his influence on Fernández is followed with suspicion by Cristina.

The hug that Fernández and Beliz gave each other in La Quiaca, after saying goodbye to Evo Morales on his return to Bolivia, was a sign of the political and personal relationship that unites the president with the secretary for strategic affairs, close to the pontificate. of Pope Francis. Beliz was one of the promoters of the judicial reform, described as insufficient by the Vice, and also of the candidacy of judge Daniel Rafecas for the Public Prosecutor’s Office who – as we already know – not very enthusiastic about explicit Kirchnerism.