Weapons in dissent in Oslo | After the attempt to …

From Caracas

Machine guns approaching in Oslo and lack of agreement. The situation has changed in one month in Venezuela. On April 30, at dawn, the attempted military coup led publicly by Juan Guaidó, the fugitive Leopoldo López, was accompanied by several deputies of the National Assembly. For several days, the scene has shifted to the Norwegian capital, where Chavismo and an opposition sector held dialogues.

There is a direct relationship between the two moments. The politico-military incapacity of April 30 forced the right to initiate public recognition of the opponent in a space of dialogue. This morning's plan did not work. What was it? Free Lopez through the front door, place him next to Guaidó at the head of an uprising where they had to bend barracks, high commandments of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb), institutional sectors, and release a popular mbad like a wave of respect for the palace of Miraflores.

In fact, only López, Guaidó, deputies and leaders, about forty armed men, the head of the intelligence services, five thousand people in the streets, followed escapes in several embbadies.

From there, speculations multiplied. One of them was that it was a trap set up by those who, according to Elliott Abrams – the US special agent for the Venezuelan case – had engaged. Abrams then said that the commander of the Fanb, the president of the Supreme Court of Justice and the chief of the presidential guard of honor were part of the scheme. There was, he said, a fifteen-point deal that had never been released, nor confirmed, nor the supposed involvement of those who reported. On the contrary, they appeared in their respective roles and alongside Maduro.

The media, together with the attempted overthrow of President Nicolás Maduro, openly questioned the April 30th operation. They questioned not only the Venezuelan right, but also the Donald Trump administration actors and the internal tensions: the US president would be in favor of an exit with dialogue, while the axis John Bolton and Mike Pompeo would be willing to advance in a military escalation.

The speculations, still present, have been modified by the information on the first approach in Norway, transcended informally until they are recognized on May 17th. Guaidó was accused in his ranks of being accused of leading the trip to Oslo without informing the other opposition sectors and, therefore, to have taken into consideration the possibility of change the order of the promised steps from the beginning. day: cessation of the usurpation, transitional government, free elections.

On May 28, the second rapprochement took place in Oslo. The self-styled president maintained his speech with an ultimatum tone, reinforced by men from his popular will party, like the one sent to the United States, Carlos Vecchio, a fugitive from justice, who said: "All options go through the Maduro exit ". There would be nothing to negotiate except the form and fate of Maduro's departure.

On November 29, the Norwegian Foreign Ministry – which demanded the utmost caution when booking the results – informed in a statement that the meeting had addressed economic, political and electoral issues.

The resolution would go in part through elections. What instance, what time and under what conditions? This is part of the debate without agreement. The other central dimension is the economy: Venezuela is an economy blocked by the United States that seeks to generate suffocation. "It's like in Star Wars, when Darth Vader suspends someone, that's what we do economically with the regime," said US Security Advisor Bolton. The goal now is to reach the epicenter of the government's food plan to cope with high prices: imported food for local supply and production committees.

The national political situation of the government gives it a stronger position for dialogue, while the economic situation shows it with greater weakness. The data published by the Central Bank of Venezuela reflect the difficulties encountered: the contraction of GDP since the third quarter of 2013 in September 2018 was 52.3%, inflation in 2015 of 180.9%, 274 , 4% in 2016, 862.6% in 2017, 130,060.2% in 2018. What are the margins that the government has with these figures, an international economic and financial blockade and an oil production that still shows no figures in terms of productive recovery?

Guaidó announced that he had not reached an agreement in Norway and received a call from US Vice President Mike Pence to support him. The Government, through Jorge Rodríguez, Minister of Communication who attended both meetings in Oslo, said that he would continue his efforts for "peace, harmony, democracy and democracy". the defense of the Constitution ", in the continuity of the engagement of dialogue. The Chavismo Maduro explained: "It is expensive to go to Norway, several months of secret talks." The president also added, "Be brave, tell the truth to your people," referring to Oslo.

If the right wing that went to Norway, subordinated to North American guidelines, abandons the nascent dialogue, will it return to machine guns or an escalating escalation of violence? His speech locked him in a maxim position: only Maduro's exit will be accepted. The problem is that the negotiation gives way, among others.