Weekly Analysis Venezuela: a mirror in which to look up to where it can fall deepen the crack

The epidemic in Venezuela and the confirmation of the decline of the Argentine economy by new statistical data have attracted the attention of the national media. On the political front, the interest is in the 2019 electoral race which will start tomorrow with the plebiscite of La Rioja and will continue in February with the PASO of La Pampa. With the image of the weakened national government and the absence of an opposition candidate generating membership, the governors of change as those of other forces choose to leave the national election , which leaves a schedule with 15 election Sundays, a number that surely will increase when provinces that have not yet done so set a date.

In the province, the good news continues to generate the measures that the provincial government manages to put in place with its own funds to mitigate the effects of the severe adjustment imposed by the national government and tourism, one rare sectors to achieve positive results in the hard sector. current context.

Venezuela, an open wound and a worrying warning

The images of blood and fire that come from Caracas are the result of the experience that has pushed to the extreme the logic of confrontation between factions as the only way to understand the political confrontation and the very marked disdain of preserving the institutions of democracy. The deep crisis plaguing the Caribbean country should serve as a warning to those who continue to bet to deepen the crack on both sides of the gap, with little interest in improving their electoral opportunities.

To better understand what is happening in Venezuela, the first thing to do is to move away from the Manichean interpretations proposed by the two warring factions. What the President of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, did when he proclaimed president looks like a coup d'etat and the very quick recognition of the Donald Trump government has left little doubt about the interference of the United States in the whole process. However, qualifying the Maduro regime for democracy is quite risky.

The crucial point is the legitimacy of the elections held last May. Large sectors of the Venezuelan population, the entire opposition and several countries, do not recognize the validity of the elections that led to the re-election of Maduro for a further six years from January 10 latest. Based on these questions, Guaidó considered that the presidency was vacant and, in accordance with the requirements of the Constitution in these cases, badumed the presidency provisionally and provisionally, provided that new elections were convened within an imperative period.

As could be expected, Maduro and his supporters, including the armed forces, understood that there was no reason for Guaidó -Who no one has ever voted to be President- Assume, nor call again the elections until 2025 and denounce a coup d'etat, is a state advocated by the United States, whose interests to guarantee the supply of Venezuelan oil are obvious.

On the other hand, beyond the fact that Maduro presumes to be a democratically elected president, the 2018 elections were the most contestable for a Bolivarian regime that could previously be held responsible for a number institutional deficits, but not the lack of liberalization, competitiveness and competitiveness. under the strict control of international organizations. One could even say that undemocratic behavior has gone through an opposition that has systematically refused to recognize the results of the polls.

The turning point was taken in 2015, when the opposition finally won the electoral triumph in the parliamentary elections. The anti-Chavists obtained a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly and, in a gesture of clear anti-democratic cutoff, announced that they would make every effort to anticipate the departure of Maduro, who had won the mandate of vice president of Hugo Chávez in the legislative elections. 2013, whose legitimacy has been recognized even by American observers.

The Maduro regime's response to the electoral drawdown was also not very attached to democratic principles: it denounced the irregularities – even if it controlled the whole process – and took advantage of one of the last sessions before moving on to new legislative majority to completely renew the process. Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) with the appointment of 13 judges and 21 substitutes, all loyal to Maduro. This new TSJ then made way for one of the accusations filed by Chavismo, ordering repeated elections in one of the states in which the opposition had won a landslide victory and ordering that one day. no oath is given to the deputies elected in this district.

The National Assembly, which already had a majority of opposition, did not comply with the order of the TSJ which then declared the Assembly contemptuous and absorbed itself in its functions. The autogolpe was too obvious and the Supreme Court had to withdraw.

The struggle for power shifted to the streets, which were then filled with violent protests brutally repressed by military and paramilitary forces.

In order to neutralize the opposition-dominated National Assembly, Maduro called elections to the Constituent Assembly in 2017 according to a rigged sectoral representation system in which a portion of voters were elected in because of their belonging to a certain sector of society. (workers, peasants, etc.). The system was a tailor-made trial for the ruling party and the bulk of the opposition had chosen not to appear, which had led to an overwhelming triumph of chavism.

Then, the Constituent Assembly, instead of writing a new constitution, literally absorbed the functions of the National Assembly.

While Maduro's popularity seemed to be at its lowest level, the government called for a deferred election of governors. The opposition introduced its candidates and the international press predicted a blow to the regime, but the ruling party swept away and ended up with 18 of the 23 governorates. As usual, the losers reported a fraud, but they have never been able to gather evidence.

Encouraged by the victory, Maduro hastened to call the presidential elections, while he had one year left before the end of his term. On February 7, the National Electoral Council (CNE) called for elections on April 22 and imposed a series of bureaucratic hurdles on the opposition. There were demonstrations and the date lasted until May 20.

Not content with imprisoning or banning key opposition figures (Leopoldo Lopez, Henrique Capriles, Antonio Ledezma, Freddy Guevara, among others), the Maduro regime, through the Constituent Assembly, abolished the legal status of all parties had participated in the last municipal elections and had imposed on all fronts the condition to submit a number of signatures equivalent to 5% of the register, a feat that should be completed in a few weeks. The popular will, the first justice and the table of democratic unity, the winning alliance in the 2015 legislative elections, were out of the race.

Under the sole jurisdiction of Henri Falcón and Evangelical pastor Javier Bertucci, two minor candidates, Maduro has largely won the election elections whose percentage of participation is discussed so far.

With the forces of society divided into two camps that systematically ignore the election results and whose main objective is the destruction of the opponent. With a government that appeals to proscription and political persecution and an opposition that, since the badurance of Hugo Chávez, badumes a will obviously devoid of poverty.

To the very poor who have never had anything and thank the Bolivarian revolution for having access to a handful of commodities even if it costs them three hours in a row and an indignant middle clbad because they can only access 'to a basket of commodities and have to do it three hours of waiting time

With this and much more, Venezuela is the result of constant confrontation, the place where politics comes to dispense with dialogue, the search for consensus and loses interest in supporting the institutions of democracy. This is the fund that is reached when you bet to deepen the crack.

In diving

The magnitude of the fall of the Argentine economy leaves no room for optimistic readings. During the week, INDEC released the monthly Economic Activity Forecast (EMAE) of November, which recorded a 7.5% year-on-year decline in And 2.3% in seasonally adjusted data. as regards October. This is the largest decline in economic activity since December 2008. As a result, it recorded a contraction of 2.2% year-on-year in eleven months, far from the expected 3-point growth. by the Macri economic team at the beginning of the year. .

Several private consultants attributed the sharp drop in activity recorded in November to that following the uncertainty scenario of the previous months, companies began to adjust their production to the new economic scenario characterized by a drop in consumption entered the current year.

Analysts' interpretation is in line with the reasons given, for example, by Dbad Eldorado for justifying the dismissals at the end of last year or those given by other companies in different parts of the country to explain dismissals and closures of factories.

Ecolatina predicts that 2018 will close with a decline in activity close to 2.5%. "Even though, until last October, the economic recession did not result in a wave of lay-offs (yes, a reduction in hiring, which was at historical lows), we hope that The last two months of the year show an intensification of redundancies in labor relations, but beyond this, the main adjustment concerns real wages, which, in the last quarter, had been reduced by an average of 12 % in the last quarter.In this sense, the evolution of the power to purchase wages will be the factor that will prevent a rapid recovery of activity, because of its effects on consumption, "says a recent report from the aforementioned consultant that predicts a 1% fall in the economy. in 2019.

Construction is one of the sectors that most strongly feels the effects of the adjustment policies of the national government. As a result, according to data from the Institute of Statistics and Registration of the Construction Industry (IERIC) Employment in construction fell in November to its lowest level of the last 16 months.

Compared to the previous year, the number of formal positions in the sector was 5% below the November 2017 level, further increasing its downward trend compared to the 2.8% fall recorded in October.

Worse than with Cristina

A report from consultant Carlos Melconian, Macri's former staff member and personal friend, on behalf of JP Morgan, acknowledged that macroeconomic figures show that "four-year change" will produce "worse results" than "Cristina Fernandez, a company over four years".

The work indicates that while the cumulative change in GDP between 2012 and 2015 gives a rise of 1.5%, in the case of the four years of Macri, the same index will show a decrease of 3%. Something similar happens with inflation: CFK's latest management reports 182%, while the Macri administration will reach 211%, provided that the 2019 budget forecasts are met, which is not enough. 39, was produced in none of the previous budgets. from the Macri era.

They also ensured that "the weak macroeconomic balance compared to long-term success (insertion in the world, G-20, exit of stocks, arrangement with holdouts, deregulation of markets, relative price corrections, etc.). leaves open a huge challenge regarding the 2019 presidential race. "

The only relatively good data is the falling dollar, that during the week accumulated a drop of 63 cents and last Friday recorded the biggest decline in the last three months, 45 cents, thanks to the entry of green export and consumer finance tickets that take advantage of the pax exchange combo and high rates in pesos to return to the profitable carry-on bike.

On the one hand, the fall of the dollar accompanied by a contractionary monetary policy can predict a reduction in inflation. However, the fact that the price of the US currency opposes inflation, as was the case since the peak of 42 pesos reached in late August, worried many badysts who warn against the negative effects export delay and the dollarization of portfolios.

Trust on the ground

The appalling performance of the economy costs Macri a gradual degradation of the image that Argentines have of his leadership. If he still has a very strong chance of being reelected today, it is rather for proverbial lack of proposals and candidates in the opposition than on his own merits.

The government confidence index developed by Torcuato Di Tella University dropped by 15.1% in January compared with December and 28% year-on-year. "The current level of confidence in the government is the lowest achieved under the administration of Mauricio Macri, lower than the last measure of the government of Cristina Kirchner (ICG December 2015 = 1.80)," notes the work.

Management of the economy is the main question asked by the respondents. "The sharp drop in January seems to reflect the announcements of increased public services, particularly in transport with an immediate impact on the economy of people, in a recessionary and inflationary economic context," the document says.

Minefield

In this context of falling Macri's image and its direction, one must understand the inclination of the majority of governors of Cambiemos to call elections in their provinces on dates different from those national. They understand that their chances improve if they do not share the vote with the president. The uncertain prospects on the opposition side and the fact that many provincial officials of political signs other than Cambiemos do not foresee strong play at the national levels also mean that most opposition governors choose to leave the elections. October.

Until now, the only yellow that would share a ticket with Macri would be Rodriguez Larreta within the CABA, while in the province of Buenos Aires, Eugenia Vidal, the brightest of the first figures of Cambiemos, flirts with the The idea of ​​cutting oneself off, given that his figures are much better than the Macri in the decisive territory of Buenos Aires, while managing the arrival of more national funds for works in their province.

The generalized elections led to an electoral calendar that now lists 15 Sundays with votes, the last of which is the presidential one. Beyond the impact of each jurisdiction on the grand total, the national government fears that there will be a series of defeats that will set a negative precedent for october.

Since the ruling they take for granted, they will win elections in the four provinces that already govern (Corrientes is no longer fashionable with the national calendar) and are betting all their chips to support the flow of votes obtained in 2017 in the central country, particularly in CABA. and Buenos Aires.

Given the current state of the presidential image, which we are changing in the rest of the country, the results of the last elections held at the height of the short progressive spring seem rather a utopia than a certain possibility, which suggests that the party in power will reap the defeats. the majority of the remaining 19 provincial elections. From this point of view, the road to October is long and difficult for the interests of Cambiemos.

Among the most difficult territories for the ruling coalition are the opposition provinces, whose governments have a good image and hold popular support to test the potential to generate a national government campaign, with all that this implies in terms of availability of resources. The misiones may be located in this group, where the governor Hugo Pbadalacqua appears as the politician with the best image, which will surely be transferred to his deputy, Oscar Herrera, to whom much of the achievements of the current administration can be attributed.

The sources of renal change at Misiones recognize that with the image of the national government at worst, it will be nearly impossible to fight for governance and point the finger at their efforts to lead the struggle in the municipalities where they had better results in 2017, such as Posadas, Puerto Iguazú and Oberá.

In radicalism, the growing discontent of the leaders belonging to the groups who were prevented from participating in the internal party and who were left behind by a "defeat of office" at the hands of the leaders who manage the game of the centenary. Potential candidates and neighborhood leaders who had played until recently with the white beret are now evaluating their participation in other political spaces not consistent with the internal management of the centennial party.

A gateway to Europe

Following the intense efforts of the Governor Hugo Pbadalacqua and the Minister of Tourism of Misiones, José María Arrúa, together with the Minister of Tourism of the Nation, Gustavo Santos, the airline of the group Globalia, Air Europa, presented to the International Tourism Fair (Fitur) of Madrid, its new flight connecting the Spanish capital to Puerto Iguazú (Argentina) from June 1st.

With an average duration of 9 hours, it will be the shortest flight between Europe and Argentina, which will allow Misiones to become one of the main gateways to the country for visitors to the old continent .

Globalia also announced hotel investments in Iguazu, the largest of the unfinished Hilton hotel located within 600 hectares.

The news is added to the other announcements made in January, such as the subsidy to electricity and buses, the subsidy to tareferos and the increase of 23% for the state, facts which add to the 1900 paved blocks last year, to the sustenance of the quality of public health despite the withdrawal of the Nation in this area, educational innovation, the school of robotics, among others aspects.