What are the 4 hypotheses on the origin of COVID-19

The coronavirus pandemic has already claimed the lives of 2.7 million people, but what is the true origin of such a crisis for humanity can not yet be answered according to the results of the latest mission of a group expert who commissioned the World Health Organization in China. In the report released today, experts acknowledge that There are four hypotheses with different levels of probability about the origin of the pandemic. They include the possibility that a virus leak may have occurred inside a science lab, although they said the evidence is weaker.

The team of experts from different countries visited Wuhan, China from January 14 to February 10. Following the publication of his report, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called for further studies. “As far as the WHO is concerned, all the assumptions are still on the table. This report is a very important start, but it is not the end. We have not yet found the origin of the virus, and we must continue to follow the science and leave nothing behind while we do, ”said Dr Tedros.

Finding the origin of the coronavirus will take more time and more studies, the official said, and the response will help reduce the risk of future pandemics. “Finding the source of a virus takes time and we owe it to the world to find the source so that we can collectively take action to reduce the risk of it happening again. No research trip can provide all the answers. “

In May of last year, a resolution of the World Health Assembly, made up of the health representatives of the countries, called for “to identify the zoonotic source” of the pandemic. In July 2020, the WHO sent a small team to China to plan a joint study made up of independent Chinese and international scientists.

Finally, the mission took place in January and was made up of researchers from Australia, China, Denmark, Germany, Japan, Kenya, the Netherlands, Qatar, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom United, the United States of America and Vietnam. It included 17 Chinese experts and 17 international experts from the other ten countries, as well as the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE); and that. The team of scientists mixes 4 hypotheses on the origin of the pandemic. He felt that some are more likely to be confirmed, and others less. Here are the 4 hypotheses:

1- Direct zoonotic spread to humans

The first hypothesis is that the coronavirus was transmitted directly to humans. “Direct zoonotic spread is considered a possible to probable route,” they considered. They stated that most emerging diseases originate from animal reservoirs and there is stronger evidence for this hypothesis. As an example, the coronavirus that caused the 2003 epidemic that caused bats was mentioned. He acknowledges that the pangolin could be a reservoir for the coronavirus that was detected last year, but also mentions that mink may contain it.

But they also admit that there is no evidence yet showing transmission of bats to other animals that were in Chinese markets. For that, They stress that studies will have to be carried out to trace the origin of the animals that have been sold in the markets of this country and, in turn, in the countries from which they come.

2- The coronavirus was introduced by an intermediate host

The hypothesis that there was an intermediate animal it was considered a transmission route between probable and very probable. The interaction between farms and places of proximity between wild and domestic species intended for consumption is mentioned. But experts say there needs to be more awareness of this possibility and suggest that studies be carried out on the animal marketing chain in the Southeast Asian region. In other words, they broadened the perspective to consider not only China, but also its trade contacts with neighboring countries. In addition, they recommended taking into account the “One Health” perspective, which involves concepts of human health combined with animal health.

3 – The coronavirus would have been introduced by cold chain products and food

This is a “possible” hypothesis according to the experts sent to China by the WHO. They pointed out that Frozen foods are sold in Wuhan markets and this could be a route of transmission of the virus. The coronavirus could also be found in food. But they recognize that the evidence is still weak. They suggest doing molecular monitoring and analysis work on foods sold in 2019 and cold chains in the marketing chain.

4- The coronavirus would have escaped from a laboratory: this is the least probable hypothesis

For the experts of the WHO mission, “introduction by a laboratory incident was considered an extremely unlikely route”, but they do not exclude it. Clarify they are not talking about scientists intentionally producing a virus. What they explained is that there is a minimal possibility of escaping the biosecurity of the viruses that a scientific institution in China was working with. A strain of the coronavirus that was detected later in January last year had been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.

They recommended that to better understand this possibility there must be “a periodic administrative and internal review of high level biosafety laboratories around the world”. They also advised follow-up for further evidence of potential leaks.

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