What Biden needs to win | The five states …

In the early hours of yesterday, Wednesday, Donald Trump declared himself the winner of these elections. I didn’t have what, but no one was surprised because it was the advanced strategy this Saturday in Page 12, to take advantage of the first meager accounts in his favor, to declare himself the winner and shout that there was fraud in turning the pancake. On Thursday he tweeted that he had to stop missing accounts to avoid fraud. In addition to the character’s notorious inability to accept reality when it does not suit him, there is a very hard and real game to preserve the power.

A few hours later, Joe Biden took the floor, in a much more responsible and institutional tone. He didn’t say he won, but that trends showed that at the end of the vote count he would become the new president. The Democrat was cunning, because the message implied that if he lost, he would accept the result, but believed he had not lost.

This fraud can lead to a political and legal swamp with a difficult prognosis and a high potential for violence. The first thing to keep in mind is that if Biden is indeed crowned and won both the electoral college and the total popular vote, the difference is less than ten percent. The country is effectively split in two and one of the halves includes all possible militias, right-wing trolls, a constellation of blameless groups and an arsenal.

Trump’s impeachment

Lawyers for the presidential campaign have filed several court cases implicating pending charges and calling for recounts in two states that have already closed and given voters Biden. The states already closed are Michigan and Wisconsin, traditionally Democratic ridings that Trump narrowly won in 2016. In both cases, the legal argument is that Republican election observers were unable to do their jobs freely, such as required by local law. In some cases he is accused of being told the count was suspended overnight, but when prosecutors withdrew, the count continued. In others, the charge is that prosecutors were kept ten meters from the counting tables so that they could not see the ballots. In both states, Biden’s advantage is very, very small.

The questions to the counts still in progress are more subtle and different. In Georgia, Trump wins just 46,000 votes and as of Argentine noon on Thursday, only 4% of the vote was due to be counted. But these votes mostly come from the urban area of ​​the capital, Atlanta, and should favor Democrats. As if to pave the way for legal action, Republicans presented a case challenging just 53 votes by mail, little but a precedent to challenge the election in the state, which can be set today.

Another operation in the works is in Nevada, a state with six voters that usually goes unnoticed but this time around may be key. Biden leads Trump with just eight thousand votes, but fourteen percent of the votes remain to be counted. The problem for Republicans is that those votes are in Las Vegas, by far the largest city in the state and a Hillary Clinton place won in 2016 by almost eleven points. The local Minister of Justice has already warned that he will reject any request to stop the counting of votes and any request for a recount.

What remains to say

Beyond legal chicanas, at present, the legal fight is defined by whoever wins these five states:

Arizona, which has eleven electoral votes and has already processed 86% of the votes. Trump has 48.1% and Biden has 50.5, 86,000 votes difference. If Democrats get half of the remaining fourteen percent to vote, they win the state.

North Carolina, which has fifteen electoral votes and has already processed 95 percent of the votes. Trump has 50.1% and Biden 48.7, a difference of 77,000 votes. The Democrat is expected to win 60% of the votes that remain to be compiled, but local law makes these postal votes wait until Thursday, November 12.

Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes and has already handled 95 percent of the votes. Trump has 49.6% and Biden 49.2, a technical tie with just 19,000 votes difference. The Democratic advantage is that the remaining 60,000 votes are postcards and mostly come from blue areas.

Nevada, which has six electoral votes and has already processed 86 percent of the votes. Biden has 49.5% and Trump 48.5%, a difference of just 8,000 votes. What remains to be counted are the postal votes, again from the Democratic-leaning Las Vegas metropolitan area.

Pennsylvania, which has twenty electoral votes and has already processed 89% of the votes. Trump has 50.7% and Biden 48.1, a difference of 142,000 votes. The trend here is so complex that Trump has already declared himself the winner beforehand. There are still votes from the capital city area, Philadelphia, which Biden wins with 60%. But also more rural counties which give Republicans an advantage.

As we can see the benefits are minimal but in three of these states Trump is ahead, who keeps shouting that he is already the re-elected president, although he would need to win another one. to succeed. A Biden is enough to confirm that Arizona and Nevada are reaching the 270 voters they need.