What can happen in Afghanistan after the US leaves and the Taliban returns to power

Afghanistan is known to historians as the tomb of empires. Great Britain and the Soviet Union know this well. And now on the eve of Twentieth anniversary of the terrorist attacks of September 11, the country returned to the power of the Taliban after the departure of the American troops.

The world today seems worried about what is happening in Kabul and has more questions than answers on the future of a country trapped in its own past.

“For Afghans it is a time of pain and sorrow because there are fundamental premises and one of them is that the Taliban are a backward government“, said to TN.com.ar the Venezuelan academic Jairo Lugo-Ocando, Director of Executive and Graduate Education and Resident Professor at Northwestern University in Doha.

In their first press conferences, the Taliban tried to be open and respectful of human rights. But few believe them. his special interpretation of Sharia, the Islamic law on which they based their fierce fundamentalist regime between 1996 and 2001, unleashes the fear in the country and especially among its main victims, women.

Sunni militiamen seized Kabul without firing a single shot. Today, they hold political power again as they did twenty years ago, but they must seek to economic support abroad to stabilize the country. And for that, they must have one eye on their enemies and another on their potential allies led by Pakistan, Iran and Qatar.

“US now loses dominance over Afghanistan. And the only countries that are going to have influence – because they are the ones who could give money to activate the economy – are Qatar, Pakistan, which has always had a strong weight, and now Iran. , which has come to play an important role in this country, as it does in Iraq, ”Lugo-Ocando said.

Lugo-Ocando, a graduate in Media and Communication Studies from the University of Sussex and an MA in International Relations from Lancaster University, said that “the Taliban no longer needs allies in the world for political power. What they need is money to revive the economy, to reactivate the part of the society which needs to produce and to modernize economically ”the country, he underlined.

And he clarified: “The Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI), which is very powerful, has been very influential and once again has significant power” in Afghanistan. “Corn money will talk a lot here. And there, Pakistan can no longer contribute, quite simply because it does not have the resources to do so, ”he declared.

For this reason, continues Lugo-Ocando, “two powers will play a role, two regional countries: one will be Qatar, because he has the resources, and the other is of course Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards were very quick to position themselves to obtain elements of influence in Afghanistan, ”he said.

Terrorism and the Taliban Axis

One of the biggest questions facing the world after the Taliban’s return to power is whether Afghanistan will again be a breeding ground for terrorist groups, as it has been with the hosts in the past. al-Qaeda from Osama Bin Laden, which precipitated the American invasion after the attacks on the Twin Towers.

Lugo-Ocando’s response is overwhelming: “It has been, it is and I think it will continue to be.”

“First because the terrain facilitates the functioning of insurgent groups. Second, because among the Taliban there are factions that believe in the caliphate, in the universal Emirate, that is to say to extend this to the West, ”he stressed.

And he added: “There are fanatics out there who will want to do this and even within the government itself, there are radical fanatics. “” And third because these (terrorist) groups are already present. The Taliban are not going to take them out ”of the country, he said.

However, the analyst estimated that the Taliban they understood that they cannot make the same mistakes as in the past.

“I think it will be more difficult. I think one of the lessons they have learned is that until they serve as a sanctuary for certain groups attacking the West and give them an excuse to make further interventions, “they will be in. security, he said.

And he continued, “I think the Taliban are going to try to prevent this and focus on governing their country and building a closer relationship in the region, but I don’t necessarily think we’ll necessarily see again. terrorist groups grow in Afghanistan. “

” If this happens, they would practically commit political suicide because they would oblige the West to re-intervene in the future ”in the country, he affirmed.

The role of the United States

For Lugo-Ocando, the American experience in Afghanistan was “disastrous”.

“The war in Afghanistan can be called a great failure,” he said.

In this sense, he said that Al-Qaeda “just moved to another place” and that “the Islamic State was born after the invasion of Iraq, that is, the Terrorist elements have spread and recurred, and that the capture of Osama bin Laden took place in Pakistan, not Afghanistan, ”he said.

“The war has cost lives, especially civilians, has caused death and suffering, and I can only classify it as a great strategic failure of the United States and of the allies who supported this invasion, including the United Kingdom ”, affirmed.

What will happen now?

The future of Afghans, and in particular those Afghans who lived under subjugation during the previous Taliban era, is uncertain.

“For Afghans it is a time of pain and sorrow because there are fundamental premises and one of them is that the Taliban are a backward government which does not allow the education of girls, unless it is a religious education and which restricts freedom, ”he analyzed.

And he asserted: “The democratic experiment of liberal democracy that the United States tried to impose has failed and the country is now falling into a precarious situation, but I believe that there will be stability. It’s the only thing you think you can get out of it all. “

“There will be stability, the Taliban will once again be the dominant force in Afghanistan. However, it is still a very poor country. Normally, after these processes, internal conflicts are generated. the taliban, contrary to what we think, it is not a homogeneous force, not totally solid and there are dissensions. We will see what happens because one thing is to overthrow a government and expel an occupying force, and another is to stabilize and unify a country, “he concluded.