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The fine print of restrictions on the arrival of aircraft from overseas speaks of a frank fear of a further escalation of coronavirus infections, which to everyone’s liking would ultimately be called third or fourth wave. Who are at risk for the Delta variant in Argentina and why is it essential to immunize (with a full two-dose schedule) more people?
Before moving forward, it should be remembered that the pandemic is dynamic and capricious. Its progress is predictable to some extent because variants can be shown in due time. That’s the feeling about Delta.
Why so much ball in this fourth VOC (Variants of Concern)? Here is the response from Pablo Bonvehi, head of infectious diseases at Cemic, member of the Fundación Vacunar and one of the doctors who advise the government on the pandemic: “All the variants end up circulating in the world and It seems indisputable that the Delta variant will arrive in the country”.
Likewise, it would be irresponsible to claim that this variant is linked to a higher rate of hospitalizations (this has been said in many media, but, Bonvehí noted, “this is not proven”), it would be naive avoid that “it is surely not possible to prevent it from arriving and circulating”, beyond the fact that “Travel restriction would help the entry to be later, which will allow vaccinate more people with two doses and counteract the effects, especially in those over 60 ”.
Having said that, two or three certainties on the qualities of Delta and on the way in which it could “strike” in Argentina.
New scenario at Ezeiza airport, to try to stop the entry of the Delta variant Photo: Luciano Thieberger
Consensus
Passing on the information of various newspapers published this Monday, the main thing seems to be that …
1) Delta is a variant much more contagious, apparently, more than the Gamma variant (“Ex Manaus”), and this is because (the virologist synthesized Jorge quarleri, principal investigator of INBIRS-Conicet), “the virus has a greater capacity to enter human cells, has a greater capacity to replicate inside cells (which generates a higher viral load). in the body) and also has an easier time going from cell to cell. “
2) No one is claiming that this is a more virulent variant, which in practice amounts to saying that the images would be very bad in some cases (like so far) and soft in many others (like until now). At this point, the central thing – Bonvehí recalled – is that “The higher the infection rate, the more infections and therefore more hospitalizations.”
There is one more point, 4), which is capital, beyond the fact that there is no consensus among the experts: it is that Delta could be particularlyat clever at evading the immunity that many people have raised today. This includes several groups with a significant number of “susceptible” in Argentina: the unvaccinated, those vaccinated with a single dose and those recovered who were infected with “old” variants of Covid, such as those derived from Wuhan.
Swabbing in a city park. Photo: EFE
Quarleri paraphrased the technical details of a recent article (a prepublication, in fact), titled “SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2: Delta variant Emerging and Vaccine Breakthrough”, by experts from the UK, India and South Africa. , which clarifies these questions.
“The Delta variant struck epidemiologically because it has the ability to reinfection and increased transmissibility. The capacity for reinfection is attributed to the fact that the antibodies generated by people infected with the virus in 2020 (from Wuhan) have a capacity of up to six times less neutralize Delta. Remember that these anti-Wuhan variant antibodies were only twice as effective in neutralizing the Alpha variant, ”he compared.
What is the effectiveness (against Delta) of the neutralizing antibodies generated by the Gamma variant, which is the “VOC” which circulates the most in Argentina? So far, this question has not been answered.
Regarding vaccines, conclusions about their interaction with Delta are mixed.
A bad one comes from these authors, who – explained Quarler – assure that “the variant showed less susceptibility to the action of antibodies generated by vaccines, which they proved after testing the plasma of people vaccinated with AstraZeneca and Pfizer. Then they saw that the neutralizing capacity of 6 to 3 times less effective against Delta”.
A vial of the AstraZeneca vaccine, one of the most widely used in the country. Photo: Reuters
To qualify this bad news, there is another prepublication (“Rapid displacement of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant by B.1.617 and P.1 in the United States), from the American genomic watch group Helix.
It should be noted that the “Delta” problem in this country is not minor, Quarleri recalled, referring to a “displacement of variants”: “In May, Delta was at the origin of approximately 2.7% of the cases of Covid. 19, but by June 5 it had increased at nearly 10% and, as of June 23, figures from the GISAID database showed that was 24.4% of coronavirus cases analyzed ”.
Could this happen in Argentina, that Delta is moving Gamma?
Surely yes. In any case, the important thing is that the graphs published in the Helix study show that although Delta is much more transmissible than others like “it would be more sensitive to vaccine protection. In other words, the P.1 variant would have a lower transmissibility than Delta, but a greater ability to escape the antibodies generated by the vaccine, ”Quarleri summarized.
United States
Anyone who thinks of the worst weeks of May (with 30,000 to 40,000 new cases per day) will easily find that feeling that Covid was there all the time. It’s hard to imagine what the worst-case scenario would look like, especially if, as Adam Kucharski, mathematician at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said, Delta is 50% to 100% more contagious than the Alpha variant.
Thinking of Argentina, with a vaccination campaign that is only progressing steadily, it becomes essential to understand how useful (vs Delta) it will be to have only one dose of vaccine, considering that while 35% of the population has already been vaccinated, less than 9% have the full regimen.
At this point, Bonvehí noted that “most vaccines retain their ability against serious illnesses, although they may be less effective against common or mild illnesses. There is still little information”.
“The WHO says that when it comes to serious illness there is little or no loss of effectiveness with two doses. With a dose, AstraZeneca covers 32.9% against the diseaseI’m not talking about the serious illness caused by Delta. Pfizer, 33%, “he added.
Quarleri, on the other hand, closed on information he had already shared with Bugle: “A recent study showed that out of 20,000 people infected in Scotland, 93% were attributed to Delta. Of this mass of people, 70% were not vaccinated. The remaining 30% had received only one dose. “
“Hence the strong insistence that began to circulate comprehensive vaccination plans“, he summed up, and concluded:” Something similar is being observed in other countries. Vaccination with a single dose, in schedules which require two, would be insufficient against Delta ”.
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