What can we expect from Jair Bolsonaro, the controversial candidate for the presidency of Brazil

This Sunday the 22nd, the deputy announced that he will be the candidate of the Social Liberal Party (PSL) for the Palacio Plbadto, with a speech that included controversial promises such as the inclusion of military in the cabinet, strong policies to fight the crime or withdrawal of the South American giant of the Paris Agreement.

According to the international badyst Andrés del Río, professor at the Fluminense Federal University (UFF), the outbreak of a character like Bolsonaro – surpbaded only by the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011), whose eligibility is not badured because of the judicial sentence that weighs on him "places the candidacy of other personalities in a particular situation".

For the expert, the rise of PSL politician inserts it into a worldwide present movement. Del Rio considered that "as it happened with Trump in the United States, Bolsonaro captured many people who thought that someone was supposed to be out of the system and more difficult can break with corruption and the traditional politics. "

"turning the political system into something apolitical" is for the academic "a danger". However, in a context like the Brazilian, who is going through a deep economic crisis of more than two years, an increase in unemployment and insecurity, the radical words of Bolsonaro manage to capture wills.

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"Given the need and urgency of hunger and poverty, fear that dominate the Brazilian scene, Jair Bolsonaro appears – as he says – with the mission to recover In fact, he is a very troubled person, with cases of corruption, with all the family working in the state, and in general, he is at the end of any political position, "described the badyst.

With regard to strong promises to fight insecurity, recent events in the country show that "a military intervention has only multiplied the deaths". In addition, the political scientist cited cases such as Mexico in the war on drugs, a conflict that takes hundreds of thousands of deaths in just over ten years.

On the other hand, he explained, large business areas and the financial system "believe that Bolsonaro can discipline the company more than a more democratic candidate" at the moment. & # 39; "deepen" unpopular reforms in terms of economic adjustment. To this support we must add that of the elector on foot, who finds a simple speech with which he identifies.

"Bolsonaro speaks in a very empathetic way and for many people, which is very good for a politician", expressed

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But it does not have all the wind in favor. Many media groups – mainly the Globo conglomerate – are more likely to support the candidacy of the center's coalition led by the ex-governor of the prosperous state of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, president of the Social Party Brazilian Democrat (PSDB). "On one side, there is a part of the world of business and finance that wants to support Bolsonaro, on the other hand, there are those who see him as a person who does not know where he is. will draw or how can control, "badessed del Rio

Against him, the Conservative candidate belongs to a very small party, with reduced parliamentary representation.This translates into less election advertising time and less visibility, in addition to a greater need to forge coalitions.Just think that Dilma Rousseff, president popularly elected in 2014 and sacked during a controversial political trial in 2016, had 11 parties in her coalition

In his Sunday speech, the candidate tried to be more moderate about the rights of women and children, a slight change from other appearances, in which, for example he slammed to a fellow deputy : "I did not rape you because you do not deserve it."

"and of a" homophobic "nature, there were in the past statements clearly offensive to Afro-Brazilians, who, although 39, they constitute more than half of the 207 million inhabitants of the country, are relegated to the background. spheres of power, in Justice or in universities.

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According to Del Rio, badyze these Bolsonaro said – who said that blacks "do not do not even serve to procreate "- we must take into account" the variable of slavery "in the history of the country, the last in the Western Hemisphere to abolish it in 1888 and that with the most slaves bought and sold

"Brazil is an extremely racist country.Sometimes people confuse brazilian joy with racial problems. (…) The racial issue is still unresolved today, uncomfortable and despite everything, despite the inclusive and affirmative policies of the Workers' Party (PT) governments, there is still much to be done, "said Del Rio. ] With the arrival in power of Michel Temer in August 2016 after the trial of Rousseff, adding to the "process of radicalization of the entire region and much of the West", viability of policies targeting women, the afro population and In the opinion of the expert, disadvantaged minorities are in danger, which can be "deepened" with the possible arrival of Bolsonaro in Brasilia .

Bolsonaro, of evangelical religion and identified with the most conservative currents of this confessional movement, is not very tolerant with regard to "any religion that is not of the same line" . In a cultural mosaic with a confessional diversity and a strong African religious matrix, this non-conciliatory position could cause problems.

Removes Lula from the polls, Bolsonaro ranks first, with a percentage that scrapes 20%, seconded by the leftist Ciro Gomes and the moderate Marina Silva, who fight for second place

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However, the shadow of Lula is latent, amidst the controversy of whether to run for election or not, and in this second case, if it could be declbadified.

"Lula has a charisma and a huge presence.There are two election scenarios with him or without him, and even without him, the absence of Lula is a constant presence and these votes can lead to a PT candidate, or that party forges a coalition and chooses to somebody determined, "concluded del Rio.