What does the disbursement of the IMF depend on and what happens if it does not arrive in time

The delicate situation that crosses the Argentina Made the sending of the $ 5400 million, corresponding to what would be the sixth disbursement of International Monetary Fund (IMF), become the key to closing the 2019 financial program. In other words: the government depends on this money to avoid the default, a qualification which would put in serious difficulty the president who badumes the 10 of December.

The fragility of the Argentine economy was revealed after the August 11 STEP elections. Not only has the dollar gone up, but the renewal of Letes and other short-term debt has been complicated. Markets have read political uncertainty and have reacted badly.

It is estimated that without the disbursement of the Fund, the government would $ 1.5 billion in order to close the 2019 financial program, which could worsen the situation of the unpaid debt that began after reperfilation. And the situation reserves BCRA does not help: Monday, they closed at 50.642 million dollars, which implies a bleeding more than 15.667 million from the OSP.

Now, what does it take to the "Council" of the multilateral credit agency to decide to send this money? Technically, Argentina has achieved the objectives agreed with the IMF: the budget deficit has been reduced and the monetary base tends to 0. This last point is perhaps the most questionable, after a violation of the July-August targets, but both at the Central Bank and the Treasury, they hope this can be compensated.

The president of the BCRA, Guido Sandleris, said a few days ago that "we are negotiating with the Fund to redefine goals" and added: "In August, we were very close to the original goal. The mandatory compliance objectives are quarterly, so it does not affect the agreement with the IMF ".

Once the technical and formal issue has been settled (or nearly so), the remaining question is why there are doubts about the disbursement made. Some claim that the last disbursement was due this week and that the IMF has decided to postpone the review of the situation in which the country was after the elections. The latest devaluation and the problems faced by the country in dealing with the payment of its debts – to the point of having to "close" the short-term maturities – have lit a first red light. But also, the possible change of political color at Casa Rosada is worrying abroad.

Sources close to the IMF badured this media that there is still no news regarding the sending of money. "Contacts with the Argentine authorities are close and the latest measures announced by the government are being badyzed. As has been said, the Fund is still with Argentina in these difficult times, "they said.

On the other hand, since the Monetary Fund will announce who will be its new director on 4 October – it is presumed that it would be the Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva- PROFILE He asked if this change of mandate could have an influence. The answer was direct: "The revision (that of the Argentine program or any other country) is not conditioned to the arrival of a new director ".

"Selective actions": the Sandleris meeting with the bank owners is over

These days, the version has circulated that Hernán Lacunza He will take advantage of his trip to the United States to meet the IMF. However, according to Treasury sources, this means that "there is still nothing confirmed regarding a meeting with the Fund".

The directory While the Argentine authorities are betting on their good relations with the United States To carry out the money transfer, the board of directors of the agency is composed of different countries shareholders and one of them is Germany. There are days, Steffen Seibert, head of the information and press office of the government of this country and spokesman for the chancellor Angela Merkel, referring to the situation: "We welcome the close cooperation between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund, which aims to strengthen the resilience of the Argentine economy and to fully restore market confidence. We also welcome the announcement by the IMF that it will continue to support Argentina in these very difficult times. ".

In addition, Seibert added: "Argentina has embarked on important economic reforms and Germany has always supported this reform process. The partnership with Argentina has always been very good and narrow, not only bilaterally, but also in multilateral fora and the Minister of Foreign Affairs has twice visited the country during last two years. "

From Misiones, Cristina reactivated the campaign: "Nobody doubts that IMF money has come in, but where is it?"

Meanwhile, a source at the embbady of another country member of the board of directors said that before deciding on their vote, the board members were expected to receive the report of the technical examination. But As the IMF has not yet decided when the technical mission will take place, the countries do not have the necessary material to badyze whether they support it or not.

Before everyone. The possible victory of Alberto Fernandez In October, it was not one of the best news for the IMF. Beyond relations with Argentina at the time of Kirchnerism, the Peronist candidate strongly criticized the body after meeting with its representatives. But this in no way closes the door to an agreement with a prospective government commanded by Alberto. In fact, the agency plays a lot in our country, since it has awarded him the greatest credit in its history.

The last thing Alberto Fernández said, when he was asked what he would do with the debt, was: "What we can, do not ask us to pay at the expense of the suffering of the Argentinians." "

Then? According to some economic badysts, the disbursement could be made after a possible change of government, so that the next administration can decide on the use of funds, because repayment of the loan should not delay. In addition, when the future president said that he did not agree with the way this loan had been spent so far.

JPA / MC

The collaboration: Leandro Dario