What happens after prince murder indictment: Biden recalibrates his delicate relationship with Saudi Arabia

Oil in exchange for protection. This is the pact that the American president sealed in early 1945. Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz bin Saud. It was signed aboard the USS Quincy, off Cairo, when the American was returning from the historic Yalta conference. Since then it has developed a “special relationship” between the two countries which have defined a good part of international relations around the Middle East for 70 years. With time and new technologies for the extraction of crude oil, such as fracking, Washington became much less dependent on Arab oil and therefore this friendship was no longer so strong.

Despite this, Donald Trump, through his son-in-law Jared Kushner, has forged close personal ties with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Two unpredictable men instead of the balanced ones who forged the initial pact. The first country Trump visited as president was precisely Saudi Arabia. Following this first meeting, Riyadh had a free hand to use US-supplied weapons in the Yemen war. The friendship was also used to try to hide the truth about the journalist’s murder Jamal Khashoggi, 59-year-old Saudi man and columnist for the Washington post. The incident happened at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2, 2018. The journalist was summoned to give him a visa when he was trapped inside the consular compound, tortured and killed by a team of agents linked to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MBS, the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Then they dismembered his body. His remains have never been found.

It was the decisive fact for President Joe Biden to now distance himself from the Middle East policy of his predecessor. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the new president intends to “Recalibrate” its relationship with Saudi Arabia. And that makes precisely discover the information that proves that Prince Mohammed was the one who ordered the assassination of Khashoggi. This was brought to the attention of the accused’s father, King Salman, aged and in poor health, but now Washington prefers to have it as an interlocutor until the succession is defined, which is also in question. Now, the State Department said in a statement, US policy must prioritize the rule of law and respect for human rights.

In order for the Saudi dynasty to maintain a strategic partnership with Washington and its long-term security “umbrella”, it must make major concessions. The first step has already been taken by re-establish relations with Qatar. Riyadh had imposed trade sanctions alongside Egypt, Bahrain and the other Gulf Emirates in 2017, knowing that the small, extraordinarily rich kingdom came too close to the interests of Iran and Turkey. It was an internal Muslim conflict between countries aligned with Sunism (the Saudis, who in turn profess a very strict branch called Wahhabism) and Shiism (the Iranians). The House of Saud was able to please Washington without major problems. It is in your best interests to keep this common Sunni front as strong as possible.

Ryad also resigned himself to the fact that he will no longer be able to use his full military potential, emanating from aid in cash and arms from Washington, in its regional war in Yemen against the Houthi rebels (backed by Iran). And he started to give in on the other point raised by Congress in Washington: that Free Saudi women’s rights activists. Most prominent activist Loujain Al-Hathloul was handed over to her family last week, albeit on their word. And now it’s coming “The most difficult toad to swallow”. Biden administration releases declassified intelligence report concluding Prince Mohammed bin Salman he instigated and approved the murder of journalist Khashoggi. A fact that could put him out of the race to succeed his father or, at least, in a very bad internal and external position to assume the throne.

After months of pressure from international human rights and freedom of expression organizations, Riyadh finally admitted that Khashoggi had been killed in a ‘rogue extradition’ operation has gone wrong, but denied any involvement of the crown prince. Five of the officers who participated in the incident surrendered and sentenced them to death, then their sentences were commuted to 20 years in prison after being pardoned by the Khashoggi family. Declassified report guarantees that the crown prince approved and probably ordered the murder of Khashoggi, who used his Washington Post column to criticize MBS policies.

Along with the intelligence report, the news channel CNN reported that the two planes used by the agents who assassinated Khashoggi to fly from Riyadh to Istanbul were from a company that had been shortly before seized by the Saudi crown, according to documents forming part of a civil lawsuit in Canadian courts. Sky Prime Aviation was incorporated into the Public Investment Fund, chaired by the Crown Prince, in 2017 and a year later its planes were used in Khashoggi’s murder.

So far, relations between the two countries have survived a series of deep crises: Washington’s support for Israel in the 1967 war that led to the 1973 oil embargo, the 1991 Gulf War and the attacks of 11 September 2001, where most of Al Qaeda’s suicide hijackers were Saudi nationals. And, of course, Washington’s constant aspiration to find a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. “A dynamic and effective peace process will help cement a strong relationship between the Prince and the President; a stuck and exhausted process will hurt their connection, ”said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst and member of the National Security Council.

Much will depend on whether MBS consolidates power in Riyadh. He is greatly appreciated by young Saudis for his advocacy for social reforms. He is barely 35 and has a great political cunning. His regency began with a coup d’état by deceiving many of the kingdom’s prominent men, locking them in a luxurious hotel and refuse to release them until they return a good chunk of their fortune obtained by the favors of the king. He also jailed the man who was Washington’s favorite to be the next king: former Home Secretary and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef, deposed by MBS in a secret coup in 2017.

Biden and his successors may have to face MBS beyond their liking. And they know that they are on a very fine line when it comes to dealing with the Muslim world. In 2005, then Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, denounced autocracy in the region and urged the Saudis to embrace democracy and hold free elections. Saudi leaders ended up allowing limited municipal elections. But it all ended in disaster with the resounding victory of the most conservative and anti-Western Islamist candidates. Any movement in this region must pave the way for a series of unforeseeable events. In this context, MBS could pass in a very short time from the status of “murderer” to that of “strategic ally”.

KEEP READING: