What impact will US sanctions on PDVSA have on Nicolás Maduro's regime?

In political terms, Maduro's only support is – until now – the support of the Armed Forces. And in economic terms, their only livelihood was oil. But with this measure announced by the White House, resources stop being put in place by a regime that has clung to power for years despite an internal and external rejection.

"These sanctions are what directly affects the only Venezuelan money entry for years"He explained to Infobae Miguel Velarde, who said the oil inflow accounted for "more than 96% of the country's income".

Although the United States has been denouncing human rights abuses for years and calling for Chavez to step down, the United States has refrained from implementing such a measure because of its possible consequences on the energy market and on the Venezuelan people.

The Venezuelan economist and political consultant pointed out, however, that as a result of the significant decline in PDVSA crude production, the impact today would be much less than in the past.

"The United States can live without Venezuelan oil, but it's hard to believe that Venezuela can survive", says Velarde. He added: "The United States had never done it because it was a radical and radical step, but they showed that they were determined to political change in Venezuela."

"These sanctions may result in a slight rise or fall in prices, but there are other actors who have much more impact on the price of oil ", he said, ensuring that the impact of Venezuelan crude oil production is declining.

"There may be some sort of reaction, but I do not think it's significant, the direct impact is here for Venezuela," he said.

The measure orders the blockade of 7,000 million USD of PDVSA badets in the United States. The US authorities have argued that, in turn, The oil company will suffer an additional loss of $ 11 billion over the next year.

"The political effect can be as important as the economic impact"

The sanctions imposed on PDVSA are a blow to the Chavez regime, which insists on remaining in power as millions of Venezuelans suffer daily from the worst crisis in the country's history. A crisis that already records an exodus of more than three million refugees.

"The only pillar of support left in Maduro is a part of the armed forces, and they are aware of Maduro's weakness "said the economist and political consultant.

Despite the importance and impact of these sanctions, Velarde said the transition process began several days ago with the proclamation of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela. But he recognized: "It speeds up the transition process and can bring change before."

"We are going through an almost irreversible transition process," he predicted.

Russia and China to the dictator's rescue?

Although Moscow and Beijing have supported Maduro after the swearing-in of Guaidó, which has received support from a large part of the international community, Velarde said it was unlikely that both countries would undertake a financial bailout to support the Chavista dictator.

Venezuela's debt with both countries s $ 31 billion student. Of this amount, 21 billion are due in Beijing and the remaining 10 billion in Moscow. In the absence of money, the scheme meets its commercial commitments by sending barrels of crude oil.

At the end of last year, Russia and China lobbied Venezuela for it to comply with these shipments. So much so Maduro went to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin and to calm the waters.

"The initial agreements provided for the shipment of 600,000 and 300,000 barrels of oil per day to Moscow and Beijing, respectively, but are currently delivering shipments to 300,000 and 150,000 barrels", detailed last December a source close to the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela.

In this sense, Velarde reminded that for years, Russia and China have decided to stop lending money to Venezuela: "They're not going to do that much now, because we feel the diet is weaker than ever."

Although Moscow is at the top of the list of countries supporting the dictator, "the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskovsaid Monday that there was no discussion within the government to increase the financial or military badistance necessary to keep Maduro in power, "said the US newspaper, referring to" funds limited "of Russia for" international campaigns ".

"Economically, the situation in Russia is not very good at the moment and another long-term burden would not be welcome," he said. Fyodor LukyanovChairman of a Kremlin Advisory Council on Foreign Policy and Defense.

The Republican Senator Marco Rubio, one of the North American leaders who pushed the most to pressure Chavez's dictatorship, shared the article on his Twitter account and claimed that "Russia will not save Maduro": " Putin and his oligarchic companies like Rosneft have already contributed about $ 20 billion in sales, loans and exploration licenses, and Maduro does not pay. "

"Putin may be mean, but he's not stupid"he concluded.