What is behind the war (and the momentary truce) in the Jordanian royal family

Jordan is in what it threatens to become its worst political crisis in 50 years. King Abdullah seems confident in his duties, but his stepbrother challenges him and the country faces significant socioeconomic challenges exacerbated by the pandemic. More than a dozen people were arrested over the weekend and the former crown prince Hamzah bin Hussein he is under house arrest. This is unprecedented unrest in the ruling family, and there are credible accusations of foreign interference.

And although before nightfall on Monday the situation appeared to have calmed down with a letter Hamzah allegedly signed of loyalty to the throne, all indications are that it was just a temporary exit of the royal family’s plot. “The national interest must remain above all, and We must all support His Majesty the King in their efforts to safeguard Jordan and its national interests, ”the letter said. “In the light of the events of the last two days, I place myself at the disposal of His Majesty the King, and reaffirm that I will always remain attached to the alliance of the ancestors, faithful to their heritage, following in their footsteps, devoted to their mission of the way, and His Majesty the King ”.

It is obviously a dictated letter from the royal palace. Hamzah signed it after receiving “visits” from his uncle, Prince Hassan, and Malik Dahlan, a professional mediator and friend of the royal family. “This regrettable incident was the result of the awkward actions of a senior security official and the false statement of a government official. It should have remained a family affair, ”Dahlan said in a statement.

Hours earlier, Prince Hamzah had said in a voicemail that he would disobey military orders not to communicate with the outside. “Sure that I won’t obey when they tell me I can’t go out or tweet or to put you in touch with people, and when they only allow me to see family, ”he said in the recording, which he circulated among friends and contacts. In a video he sent to BBC Hamzah’s lawyer on Saturday, the prince accused Jordanian leaders of corruption.

Rumors of a plot to overthrow King Abdullah have been circulating in Jordan for months and say Saudi Arabia is supporting the coup. Among the detainees is Sharif Hassan bin Zaid, a former envoy to Saudi Arabia and brother of a senior Jordanian intelligence official assassinated in 2009 by an al-Qaeda double agent in Afghanistan. Also in the suicide bombing five CIA officers died. Former cabinet member Bassam AwadallahA longtime supporter of political reform, he is another prominent figure among those arrested. He has always been seen as close to the Saudi government. The director of Hamzah’s advisory office was also arrested.

Former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, 41 – the eldest son of the late King Hussein and his fourth wife, Queen Nur- he is under arrest in his palace. Official media say he is not being held, but in a long video in English and a short video in Arabic, he himself denounced that they cut the phone lines and that he cannot communicate normally with the outside world. In the videos it is very critical of the government for its corruption and incompetencebut he does not speak of the king by name; yes it refers to a bully who runs the country. The government said his wife, Princess Basmah, was in contact with a foreign intelligence officer to leave the country.

King Hussein named Hamzah crown prince in 1999, but five years later his successor, Abdullah, dismissed him and appointed his own son, Hussein bin Abdullah, in his stead, who is now 26 years old. The event is unprecedented in the country’s history. Previous changes in the line of succession were consensual within the palace walls.

Hamzah is popular especially among the tribal establishment and is known to attend meetings where others voice criticism of the king. The chiefs of the tribes are those who hold the territorial power and since 1997 they hold a significant share of the seats in the Parliament. Most of them expresses its sympathy for the organization of the Muslim Brotherhood which acts in several Arab countries, considered by some essayists as the germ of jihadism and terrorist organizations.

The government says it thwarted what would be a coup with foreign support. AND They target Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Saudi Arabia is not popular with most Jordanians, and MBS is particularly vilified for her role in the Yemen war and her flirtation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A coup plot involving MBS would meet massive opposition from the military and the general population.

All this while Jordan suffers from serious economic and structural problems. The country lacks natural resources, water is scarce and the population has grown to over 10 million. Unemployment is high, especially among women. Waves of refugees have arrived from Iraq and Syria. The pandemic has added to the difficulties and made everything worse. Tourism, the key to the economy, has stopped. Corruption is rampant.

Jordan is at the heart of the Middle East, surrounded by Israel, the West Bank, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and just across the Gulf of Aqaba is Egypt. During the first 20 years of Hussein’s reign, the country was ravaged by coup plots, assassination attempts, foreign interference and ultimately civil war. Since 1970, the country has maintained its stability without major shocks. The greatest threat was and continues to be Al Qaeda and Islamic State terrorism. The wars in Iraq and Syria and the intifadas in Palestine did not provoke riots in Jordan. AND the “Arab Spring” barely brought any demonstrations, but they never became massive like in Egypt or ended in military uprisings like in Libya. In June 2018, there were protests against a sharp increase in taxes and the terms of a loan that the International Monetary Fund was giving at the time. Everything calmed down after the resignation of the Prime Minister.

And here again appears the challenge of Prince Hamzah. Little is known about his actions and political alliances. It’s a conundrum in many ways. For this reason, the expert on Jordanian politics, Bruce riedel, in his analysis of the situation he made for the Brookings Institution he’s asking himself: Is there a real plot to destabilize the country? Or is Hamzah just complaining about the sad state of the government and the economy? What seems clearer is that Prince Hamzah by no means ended his personal battle to regain his position as heir to the throne.

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