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Two and a half years after the referendum in which the United Kingdom voted in favor of the abandonment of the
European Union
(EU) and a few weeks before the key date of 29 March, we still do not know what will happen to the
Brexit
.
The British government spent much of its time negotiating an exit agreement that the UK Parliament rejected on Tuesday, for the second time, by a large majority.
Brexit agreement, once again rejected by the British Parliament – Source: AFP
1:41
The proposal received 391 votes to 242 in the House of Commons, which resulted in a new vote on Wednesday, in which legislators must decide whether they want a vote.
Brexit
"difficult", ie an exit from the EU without any kind of negotiation between London and Brussels.
If the vote is again negative, they should then position themselves on the postponement of departure, scheduled for March 29, for an indefinite period.
And as the clock advances quickly to the specified date and all options appear to be on the table again.
But what is Brexit? How did you get there? What can happen now?
Here are seven fundamental questions to understand this process that obsesses and worries all British – and not a few Europeans – for two and a half years.
1. What is Brexit?
Brexit is an abbreviation of the English words Britain (Great Britain) and exit (exit). This is the term coined to refer to the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU).
The United Kingdom joined the continental bloc, currently composed of 28 countries, on January 1, 1973, but in June 2016, the British decided to leave the EU and end a relationship of more than four decades.
2. How did you get there?
Holding a referendum to decide whether or not the UK should stay in the EU was one of the campaign promises with which the Prime Minister of the day
David Cameron
He was re-elected in 2015.
And in the vote that took place on June 23, 2016, 48.1% of the British voted in favor of keeping in the bloc, but 51.8% voted in favor of leaving the EU.
Belonging to the European Union implies, among other things, the acceptance of what are known as the "four fundamental freedoms": the free movement of workers, goods, services and capital.
And the main argument of the exit campaign was that, with Brexit, the British would "take back control" of their own affairs, especially their borders, which would allow better control of migration.
3. When will Brexit be produced?
In principle, the United Kingdom leaves the European Union on 29 March 2019.
However, the deadline may be extended if the UK Government so requests and the other 27 EU members agree.
European Union
determined that the UK can definitely cancel its exit at any point in the process, so, at least in theory, this could never happen.
4. What has happened so far?
The decision to leave the European Union provoked a real political earthquake in the United Kingdom, forcing the resignation of
David Cameron
.
And the country has spent two and a half years trying to agree on the type of relationship it wants to maintain with the European Union, while the Prime Minister's government,
Theresa May
, negotiated the terms of the separation.
A first "divorce agreement" between London and Brussels was announced on November 25, 2018 and May's initial intention was to submit it to the British Parliament's vote on December 11.
But the British Prime Minister retreated at the last minute, when it became clear that she did not have the majority needed to approve the deal, promising to come back with a better one.
His decision, however, angered enough members of his party to impose a vote of no confidence that led to May's victory, but did not dispel doubts about the future of their deal.
Eventually, the agreement was rejected by an overwhelming majority of Parliament in a vote held on January 15th.
And on March 12, Parliament again rejected a new proposal presented by May after weeks of whereabouts in continental Europe.
5. What does the agreement say?
Among other things, the agreement establishes a transition period that aims to give the parties time to adjust and negotiate the terms of their new relationship.
This transition period would last until 31 December 2020 and no major changes would occur in relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
The agreement also sets the amount that the United Kingdom should pay to the European Union to honor the commitments made as a member of the bloc: about 39,000 million pounds sterling (nearly 50,000 million dollars Americans).
The agreement establishes a transition period, which
The parties also undertake to preserve the rights of UK citizens currently living and working in other EU countries and European citizens living and working in the UK.
The controversy, however, is aimed at a "safeguard" intended to prevent the installation of a physical boundary between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
This is the main point to renegotiate in May.
6. Why is the Irish border issue so controversial?
The absence of physical barriers between Ireland and Northern Ireland – one of the four countries that make up the United Kingdom – is one of the cornerstones of the peace agreement that puts an end to the years of violence of independence.
But if the United Kingdom ceases to belong to the customs union of the European Union, as May wishes, it may be necessary to remove these obstacles again, even if London and Brussels have committed to not doing it.
In view of this commitment, the exit agreement provides for a "guarantee" that, until alternative solutions are found, the United Kingdom would remain in a customs union with the European Union. , Northern Ireland being obliged to align with certain rules of the Union. European common market.
But this provision is unacceptable for the members of the Democratic Unionist Party, the key of the May government, as well as for many Conservative parliamentarians.
7. What can happen?
All options are back on the table.
The UK could end up leaving the EU on March 29 without an agreement that, according to the Bank of England forecasts, would have serious consequences for its economy.
But this possibility could also lead the government or parliament to decide to suspend or cancel Brexit.
And, in the meantime, the possibility of a substantive renegotiation of the agreement can not be ruled out, especially in case of change of government.
* This article was published in December 2018 and was updated after the second vote, in which the UK Parliament again rejected the agreement negotiated by Theresa May.
.
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