What is the price of the dollar expected by the government, according to the 2020 budget

Finance Minister Hernán Lacunza will present next Monday at noon the finance bill for 2020, which provides GDP growth of 1% and inflation around 34% on average, without reprogramming the debt that also requires the Congressional approval, sources reported today at the Palacio de Hacienda.

In addition, they indicated that the budget bill would come through the Chamber of Deputies and that same day it would be presented by Lacunza.

They added that this year should end with inflation close to 53% and a drop of about 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), which will leave a "negative drag effect" of 1% for next year. .

The 1% GDP growth forecast for next year is supported by an increase in exports and a 1.4% recovery in private consumption.

Although, for this year, the public accounts are closed with a deficit of about 0.5% of GDP, in the calculation of next year, "it is not yet closed", what will be the variation, that former Finance Minister Nicolás Dujovne had estimated a surplus of 1%.

The authorities recognize that the prospect of a 1% increase in GDP is "contrary" to all private forecasts, which place it with a decline of 1.1%.

Another chapter concerns the financing needs that the national state will need. President Mauricio Macri is seeking to reschedule the maturities of certain securities issued under local and foreign legislation, and for this he needs congressional approval.

Since this initiative is not yet closed, the finance bill does not contemplate this extension and the data of the current financial program will be taken into account.

In turn, The projected inflation for 2020 would be about 34% on average and 43% end-to-end, while the exchange rate estimates would be about 74 dollars from December 2020 and from 67 dollars on average, official sources said.

For this year, the balance of payments, which includes all financial movements and movements of goods and services abroad, will close with a deficit of about 0.9% of GDP, but a profit of 0 is expected for next year. 4%

This is largely due to the fact that the trade balance will close next year with a surplus of 17,500 million US dollars, more than the 16,100 US dollars expected this year.

For this, exports are expected to increase by 8.4% over the previous year and imports by 1.3%, due to increased internal activity.

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