What is the probability that Argentina is suffering from water scarcity?

Population growth, the increase in meat consumption and the intensification of economic activity are exerting increasing pressure on the planet's water resources.

The inhabitants of nearly 400 regions of the planet already live in conditions of "extreme water stress",
according to a new report from the World Resources Institute (WRI), a Washington-based research center.

Water stress measures the amount of water extracted from underground and surface sources relative to the total available.

The fear is that the shortage of water can cause the displacement of millions of people around the world, generate conflicts and political instability.

From Mexico and Chile to regions of Africa and to the seaside resorts of southern Europe and the Mediterranean, the level of water stress is reaching alarming levels.

Global problem

Nearly one-third of the world's population, or about 2.6 billion people, live in countries characterized by "extremely high" water stress, including 1.7 billion in 17 countries facing a "scarcity of water". 39 "extreme water", according to the IRG.

While the Middle East countries are considered to have the greatest water stress, the study also points out that India "faces critical challenges related to the use and management of water and that these problems affect all aspects, from health to economic development ".

Pakistan, Eritrea, Turkmenistan and Botswana also suffer from extreme water shortages, according to the report.

Bad news and good surprises

The data were compiled from the WRI Aqueduct 3.0 platform, which badyzed several hydrological models and calculated the amount of water extracted from the surface and ground reserves in each region relative to the total amount of water. water available.

When the proportion of water withdrawn exceeds 80%, areas are considered "extremely rare".

"Since I'm working with data, I'm trying to be fairly impartial in interpreting the numbers, but I've been surprised by the bad situation in India," he said. BBC Rutger Hofste, lead author of the study.

India is the 13th country with the greatest water stress, followed by Pakistan, its neighbor.

Nine of the 36 Indian states and territories are clbadified as "extremely rare in water". And Chennai (formerly Madras), the state capital of Tamil Nadu in the south of the country, has recently undergone a cycle of floods and droughts.

"The continuing water crisis in a large city like Chennai illustrates to a large extent the challenges that India will face in the coming years, exacerbated by the mismanagement of the resource and the increasing demand. population and the sector, "says the report.

Argentina: rich in shale gas, little stressed

Argentina ranks 92nd out of 164 countries covered by the study. Qatar is the country most stressed by the lack of water, which places it at 164th place.

Argentina is the largest producer and consumer of natural gas in South America and has the second largest technically recoverable shale gas resource in the world.

With low to medium stress on 72% of its shale resources, competition for water is less of a concern for Argentineans in general.

However, 28% of the resources are in arid areas, so that the country will not completely escape the water-related limitations if shale development continues. A partnership with Chevron helped
more than triple the production in a shale basin at Vaca Muerta.

Mexico, Chile and Brazil

According to the IRG, Mexico will face a situation as serious as India if no action is taken.

Fifteen of the country's 32 states are clbadified as extremely rare. And Hofste points out that Mexico City, in particular, has "a very fragile water supply system."

In Chile, 10 of the country's 16 regions have also been clbadified as "extremely rare", including Santiago.

Brazil, however, is in a different situation. According to the report, the risk of water stress is low in most countries.

But Brasilia is the region where water stress is the worst in the country, followed by Ceará, Paraíba, Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco.

According to the National Water Agency of Brazil (ANA), the country has about 12% of the fresh water availability of the planet, but the resource allocation is not not balanced.

In the Northern Region, for example, about 80% of the available water is concentrated, although this area represents only 5% of the national population. Coastal regions, where more than 45% of the population lives, have only 3% of the country's water resources.

The pressure of tourism

The Chinese and Russian capitals, Beijing and Moscow, also suffer from "serious water shortages".

According to Hofste, "other surprises" have been found in southern Europe, particularly in Italy and Spain, where tourism is putting additional pressure on water supply systems during the last two years. the driest months of the year.

More than half of the 20 Italian regions were considered "extremely water-stressed", as was one-third (27) of the 81 provinces of Turkey.

Cape Town, South Africa, experienced a severe water shortage in 2018, which led to the implementation of restrictions on the use of the resource.

And 10 of the 17 districts of Botswana as well as parts of Namibia suffer from a "shortage of extreme water".

Explosive consumption

Between 1961 and 2014, the overall rate of water withdrawal, or the amount of freshwater extracted from underground and surface sources, increased 2.5-fold.

The demand for water for crop irrigation has increased by more than 100% over the last fifty years, according to the IRG. About 70% of the water consumed each year in the world is intended for irrigation.

The industry consumed three times more water in 2014 than in 1961 (21% of total gross withdrawals).

Water withdrawals by families have increased sixfold since 1961 and currently represent 10% of the total.

A small percentage of water comes from hydrological sources for animal production.

But Hofste points out that the water used to irrigate plantations to feed livestock accounts for 12% of the resources used for irrigation, according to a study conducted in 2012 by researchers from the University of Twente to the Countries -Low.

In the context of an upward trend in demand for animal products, reducing meat consumption can help alleviate the global water crisis, according to Hofste.

"It's probably the" quick fix "if they were asking me for such a response to the global water crisis," said the researcher at the BBC.

"We use a lot of farmland to plant food and feed the animals, so if we think of turning these resources into calories, it's not the most efficient mechanism."

According to the 2012 Dutch study, the impact of any animal product on water is greater than that of agricultural products of equivalent nutritional value.

Climate and conflict

Several UN agencies have already warned that climate change will make water availability less predictable in some places.

Increased temperature and increased rainfall variability are expected to reduce crop productivity in many tropical regions of the developing world, where food security is already a problem, according to the World Health Organization.

And according to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid areas will result in the displacement of 24 to 700 million people by 2030, if current trends continue.

Some countries facing water stress are in conflict zones and water can be a contributing factor to these clashes, the report notes.

The WRI also indicates that many areas where water scarcity is extreme or high are in conflict areas and that resources can be a factor in the fighting. These areas include Israel, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.

On the other hand, many areas that have to absorb a large part of the displaced population, such as Jordan and Turkey, also suffer from water stress.

However, the WRI data also show that even countries without severe water stress are also vulnerable due to drought, a phenomenon that is defined by rainfall falling below 10% of normal.

Moldova and Ukraine, for example, are defined as countries with low or medium water stress, but they are at the top of the list as countries at risk of drought. The list is followed by Bangladesh, which is experiencing a low level of qualified water stress.

Small farmers in these countries are also less flexible to variations in water supply than Californian farmers.

Violent conflicts over resources (such as water) that climate change is already creating

Positive experiences

Hofste badured that the Aqueduct 3.0 data also show that, where socioeconomic factors are the main water stressors, these factors can be mitigated by good water management.

Singapore, for example, has put in place a sustainable supply system that the government calls "Four Faucets". The system is based on four pillars: water collection, water import, high quality recycled water called NEWater and desalinated water.

Israel is another world leader in advanced water technologies and resource management.

Hofste said that countries facing water-related challenges, such as India, can act by following these examples to cope with their own crises.

"Water stress is an important indicator, but it does not represent an immutable destiny," Hofste told the BBC.

"What happens is very much dependent on the country's response, and there are examples of countries that have managed to cope with water crises."

By Pablo Uchoa

IN ADDITION