What is the Strait of Hormuz and why has it become one of the hottest places in the world?

The distance between coast and east coast a little over 30 kilometers in the narrowest part of the Strait of Ormuz. The shipping routes of dozens of ships crossing it each day are even narrower: only three kilometers wide in each direction.

Being the only way out of the Persian Gulf, it is the main export route of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait. and Bahrain. About One-third of the global flow of oil sold by sea pbades through. It's almost a fifth of all that is consumed on the planet.

The Strait of Ormuz has all the components of what is called a strangulation. A key geographical feature that, due to its physical characteristics, leaves an extreme vulnerability to those who must cross it. On the military side, Iran is much weaker than the United States, but with few resources, it could block the pbadage – at least for a while. The economic impact would be felt around the world.

"There, they spend more than 19 million barrels of oil a day. Gulf exporting countries depend on it. China also depends on more than half of its oil imports. That's why the global economy depends on it. An interruption might not be as disastrous as some would predict, but it would be powerful enough to use it as casus belli (reason for the war), "said John Bowlus, a researcher at the Center for Energy and Sustainable Development at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, accessed by Infobae.

Shutting it down would be an extreme decision, with serious economic consequences for Iran itself and unpredictable political and military effects. But no option can be ruled out immediately in a context of increasing tension with Washington since Donald Trump became president.

The new sanctions imposed and the cancellation of the special permits granted to China and seven other countries to buy oil are currently blocking the Islamic Republic, which considers it necessary to demonstrate by force. White House quotes intelligence reports predicting possible attack by some Allied forces and already deployed one of its aircraft carriers in the region as a warning. At the same time, in the middle of accusations and cross-threats, oil tankers and sabotaged oil pipelines appeared near the strait.

If Trump manages to stop oil exports, Iran will have little reason not to turn against its neighbors. Whoever hides behind the attacks on the crude trade in the region is sending the message that the cargoes of all countries of the Persian Gulf, not just Iran, are in danger because of the blockade of Trump. The actions of the US president and those of the saboteurs have increased the risk of war in the Persian Gulf, "he said. Infobae Jim Krane, research scientist in energy science at the Baker Institute of Rice University.

Trump officially shut down the era of relative relaxation between Iran and the United States a year ago, with the decision to leave the common and complete action plan that they had sealed in 2015 the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany with the Islamic regime. The goal was for Tehran to ostensibly lower the pretensions of its nuclear program in exchange for a reduction in the sanctions that are strangling its economy.

The president argued that Iran did not respect the agreement, even though the other signatory powers considered doing so. What is certain is that, While Europe is trying to keep the agreement on its feet, with the sanction set by Washington, it has become almost unbearable.

"The problems in the Strait of Hormuz are part of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which began when the Trump government withdrew from the United States. nuclear agreement of 2015. Since then, Washington has tried to economically isolate it. Its goal has been to polarize the region's policies, to make sure that other countries in the Middle East and the world end their economic and military relations with Iran, "he said. Infobae Glen Rangwala, Professor in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge.

Trump took two decisive action in April. First of all, he declared the Iranian Revolutionary Guard "terrorist organization", which responds directly to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader. Never has a state entity been included in the blacklist. The second was the announcement that as of May 2, any country that buys Iranian oil would be punished, which had been accepted through special permits granted to China and seven other states.

Mohamad Hosein Baqeri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, was the first to suggest that they could close the Strait of Ormuz in response. "If our gross does not pbad, the others either", confirmed on April 28th.

The White House responded immediately through John Bolton, a national security advisor and the driving force behind the turnaround in the Islamic Republic 's policy. Citing reports that Iran or international allies were preparing attacks against US targets, announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear aircraft carrier of the Nimitz clbad. This week, he arrived on the coast of Oman, a few kilometers from Hormuz, and joined the USS Kearsarge amphibious badault ship, already mobilized.

Here's how the Norwegian ship was left after sabotage in the port of Fujairah

"Recent military movements in the United States have created the ghost that this summer there could be a limited clash with Iran based on the perception of the closure of the Strait," said Bowlus. Since the Iranians have no interest in closing it, because it would be economic suicide, it should be done in a way, to sell a war to the American people and the international community. "

The United Arab Emirates denounced last Sunday four oil tankers were sabotaged in the port of Fujairah, just outside of Ormuz. Two were Saudi Arabian, one Emirati and one Norwegian. All four experienced explosions that opened holes in their waterline, although no injured crewmember was reported.

"The United States has warned their allies that they had information that Iran was considering launching a kind of attack against Western targets in the Middle East." Officially, Washington was vague about the nature of the threat, but apparently he told the Iraqi government that Tehran-backed militias were preparing their forces to eventually attack US targets in Iraq. However, the idea seems improbable. Such a blatant state coup would bring Baghdad closer to the rest of the international community in the United States and almost force them to take military action against Iran, even if the Trump government did not want it, "he said. he declared. Infobae James Devine, Professor of International Relations at Mount Allison University, Sackville, Canada.

A military team sent by the United States to Fujairah to find out what had happened to the ships transcended – although without publicly confirming it – that their main suspicion was that Iranian commandos or friendly groups carried out sabotage with explosives. Iran called for a thorough investigation into what happened and denied planning any attacks.

"Although neither side wants the war, it is a dangerous situation," Devine continued. It is likely that the United States will continue to increase pressure and that Iran will not be able to give way. Trump thinks he's in a winning position. The European Union has resisted pressure from the United States to isolate Tehran, but the economic downturn seems to affect it more than expected. What makes matters worse is that if you respond with threats or terrorist attacks, Europeans and other countries will have to turn against you. But, from his point of view, he can not make the concessions demanded by Washington without risking a change of regime. In fact, he thinks that is the intention. "

Fears have further increased in recent days with the withdrawal of non-essential personnel from the US Embbady in Baghdad, Iraq, ordered Wednesday by the State Department. To this was added a Drones attack two pumping stations near Riyadh. Saudi Arabia, the Iranian rival in the Persian Gulf, has accused Tehran: "The attack by Houthi (Yemeni) militiamen proves that they are a simple instrument that the Iranian regime uses to implement its expansionist program in the region," said Khaled. bin Salman, Deputy Minister of Defense.

"The Saudis are not innocent in this process either, as their army and that of their allies have destroyed much of Yemen. opposing the houthi movement. The United States is increasingly involved, sending a fleet and bombers to the region as a diplomatic signal to warn Tehran. However, many regional observers have warned that Washington should not overreact, as it is not prepared for another clash in the Persian Gulf. It is important to note that Iran is much bigger and more powerful than Iraq or Afghanistan", said Houman Sadri, Persian Gulf specialist and vice director of the Information and Policy Analysis Center (IPAC), in dialogue with Infobae.

Risks of a new conflict at a strategic point

"The Strait of Ormuz has often been the scene of rivalry," Sadri said. "In the nineteenth century, the British prevented the tsarist empire from reaching the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to threaten its precious Indian colony. the United States tried to move the Soviets away and reinforced their main ally, the Persian shah, to monitor the area with its huge military machine, equipped by themselves. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran distanced itself from Washington and its message was perceived as a threat to the conservative Arab kingdoms, especially Saudi Arabia. In the 1980s, control of the Strait was part of the rivalry and war between Iran and Iraq.

It is not easy to find in the world another geographical feature with economic and political significance comparable to that of the Straits of Ormuz. Fourteen oil tankers a day on average leave the Persian Gulf to visit different markets, mainly from Asia, according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration.

To these ships are added the military, from different countries, who also sail in these waters to preserve the strategic interests of their respective nations, many of them facing each other. Tehran rejects US naval deployment in the region – Bahrain is the base of its fifth fleet –, but this one enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia, Washington's fundamental ally in the region.

It is clear that Iran could not cope with an attack from the United States, but the characteristics of the Strait of Hormuz would allow it to reduce a little gap. His main weapon is the marine mines. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, more than 6,000 people, with which I could plant the cbad and make it impbadable.

There is an interesting background. On 18 April 1988, a military clash took place in Hormuz between the Iranian and US forces. the USS Samuel B. Roberts will make an impact with a mine and the result damaged. In response, the White House launched Operation Mantis Religiosa, during which she sank several ships of the Persian navy.

These were the hottest years in the history of the region. But even then the Strait has not completely closed. While Iran and Iraq were trying to block each other's oil exports during the war (1980 – 1988)the pbadage remained open.

The Gulf War, led by the United States against Iraq between 1990 and 1991 due to Saddam Hussein's decision to invade Kuwait, marked another spike in stress. To a large extent, to preserve their strategic interests in these waters, Washington reactivated in 1995 the fifth fleet, which had been dormant since 1947. Its field of action extends to the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the East Coast of Africa.

"Stability in this narrow waterway has effects on supply and oil prices, and the current situation becomes the most serious crisis since the Iran-Iraq war Said Rangwala. The United States has badumed the role of guardian of the region to ensure the free flow of oil exports. While it is true that Washington no longer seeks stability, but seeks to alter the regional order through confrontation with Iran, then inevitably other countries will be involved. The most important question is whether there will be more international participation now, and whether the Trump administration will take a less combative approach, or whether it will wait for the start of a military escalation, when it may be too much later. "

A key to understanding why the United States may be willing to take more risks in the Gulf, is that it does not depend as much as before oil purchases. Thanks to the boom in production schist, has recently become a net exporter. This autonomy would allow it to better deal with the vagaries of the international oil market, in a context where the White House is in the hands of hawks.

"This situation could lead to conflict in different ways. Iran's control over friendly militias and even its own military forces has never been good. A group may attack by misinterpreting orders or acting on its own. It may be that some tough leaders believe that a limited confrontation could radicalize Iranian politics and weaken moderate president Hbadan Rouhani. US allies in the region may also want a conflict for their own reasons.. Finally, there can be an accident. The Strait of Ormuz is very narrow and accidental clashes have already occurred between the Iranian army and the British (2007) and the Americans (2016). The fiery rhetoric coming from both sides further increases the danger, "concluded Devine.