What kind of mysterious virus is causing health disaster in India

The disconcerting speed with which the coronavirus overwhelmed India’s health systems, jumped the global alarm for virus variant which arose in the subcontinent.

Some blame the variant B.1.6.1.7 of the wave of infections in India, which only reported on Monday more than 350,000 confirmed cases, a world record for a country in one day. Health experts believe the real figure may be much higher.

What is the “double mutant” strain in India and why it could be the most dangerous in the world

However, scientists have asked don’t jump to conclusions on the extent to which the variant is solely responsible for the skyrocketing increase in cases in recent weeks, which caused Monday 2800 deaths confirmed in India.

Unusual: India will have to pay more expensive vaccines even though it is the world’s largest producer

They said there was little strong evidence for the virulence and transmissibility of the variant and report other possible factors.

“Despite the alarming increase in the number of new cases seen in India’s second wave, it is simply not enough evidence to blame the variant“said Nancy Jaser, infectious disease analyst at GlobalData, an analytics company that tracks mutations.

When did B.1.6.1.7 appear and what is its scope?

The B.1.6.1.7 variant was registered for the first time in a global database of viral genomes. beginning of October, just two weeks after the initial detection of variant B.1.1.7 in the UK.

Variant B.1.6.1.7 has circulated in India since then and has spread throughout the world. About 20 countries have reported cases, mainly in travelers from India.

The problem is that, relative to the size of its population, India has very little whole genome sequencing, which is the only reliable way to track the evolution of variants.

Therefore, the degree of involvement of the variant is unknown B.1.617 in the Indian epidemic, although it accounts for about two-thirds of the genomes reported by the country in the global GISAID database.

Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomic Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, noted that in India there are several variants, including one from Great Britain.

Variant B.1.1.7, which scientists concluded to be more transmissible, was dominant in the Covid-19 wave in the UK at the end of 2020, and then spread to mainland Europe.

“There is evidence that several epidemics overlap in India, rather than a monolithic epidemic, “Barrett said.” Which makes sense because it’s a huge and heterogeneous country.

Is B.1.6.1.7 particularly virulent or transmissible?

The original variant of B.1.6.1.7 a 13 genetic mutations that cause changes in the virus. Among them, two spicular proteins associated with other variants (such as those identified in South Africa and Brazil) that increased transmissibility and the ability to ignore immunity conferred by vaccination or previous infection.

However, there is not enough evidence, from epidemiological studies or laboratory experiments, to confirm that this is also the case for B.1.6.1.7.

“You have to look at these things without panicking”Barrett said.

“The fact that [la variante originada en la India] has not spread yet [ampliamente] in the UK, although it has been off the UK coast since February, this indicates that it is unlikely to be as transmissible as B.1.1.7 “.

What increases the uncertainty is that B.1.6.1.7 itself “evolves over time,” according to Sharon Peacock, director of the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium.

Scientists have already detected three descendants -called B.1.6.17.1, B.1.6.1.7.2 and B.1.6.1.7.3- with slightly different mutations. The practical implications of these strains are unknown.

Lack of oxygen and open-air cremations, the doomsday scenario in India due to coronavirus

References in the media and on the Internet to “double mutations” of variant B.1.6.1.7 are “inaccurate, have no specific meaning and should be avoided,” Peacock added.

Do vaccines lose their efficacy against B.1.6.1.7 compared to other variants?

Again, It’s not clear. Vaccines developed to fight the original coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan in 2019 appear to work just as well against the B.1.1.7 variant that emerged in the UK, although appear to be less effective against strains originating in South Africa and Brazil.

“It is not yet clear whether they will remain effective against new variants emerging in India, but they are likely to have at least some effectiveness.”said Peter English, a retired UK consultant specializing in communicable disease control.

Since only vaccinated 10% of the Indian population, “The variants are not yet under great pressure from vaccine immunity, so there is not great pressure for mutations to emerge that escape the vaccine,” he added.

What could be at the origin of the health crisis in India?

The evolution of the coronavirus crisis in India was also driven by other factors, such as its low vaccination rate and limited hospital capacity. Decisions taken by leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the tolerance for large gatherings political and religious.

“Much attention has been paid to variant B.1.6.1.7,” said Michael Head, global health researcher at the University of Southampton, UK. “But this is the mix of susceptible populations which ultimately results in the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases. “

I mention the massive gatherings in India in March and April associated with political campaigns, international cricket matches between India and England “with full stadiums and few with chin straps”, and several major religious festivals, such as the Kumbh Mela, an event in which millions of people participated. people.

Traduccin: Mariana Oriolo