what measures should be taken to minimize the impact

“The increase in cases in AMBA, although slow, is sustained over time and there is no event or change in behavior that could explain it. The most plausible conclusion is that we are in the second wave of coronavirus. “While the epidemiological data are solid, Rodrigo Quiroga it becomes categorical.

They are as follows: “By comparing the last 7 days with the scenario of 20 days ago, we see a 48% increase in new cases of Covid in the metropolitan area ”. Quiroga is observing the pandemic from Cordoba. He is a chemist, researcher at Conicet-UNC and specializes in molecular biology and bioinformatics.

This Friday, coronavirus cases soared, with the highest number since January 14: 12,936 across the country. This Saturday, as usual on weekends, the Nation’s Ministry of Health reported a slight drop: 10,338 positives.

The second wave, Quiroga pointed out, is not a future scenario but a current one, but we are in time to redirect it. This diagnosis was shared by two other experts who spoke with Bugle: Javier Farina, doctor in infectious diseases from the Argentinian Society of Infectology (SADI) and careful follower of the curves of the pandemic, and Diego Pereyra, medical coordinator of the intensive care unit of Sanatorio Güemes, one of the two private health centers in Buenos Aires which (together with the Italian hospital) more Covid patients have received during this long year.

For Pereyra, so much so that we are in the second wave, that they are waiting for the greatest tension (Peak) for in about four or five weeks. He does not say it but a prediction system that they use in Güemes, a gift from the engineer Fredi Vivas, entrepreneur of the company Rockindata.

“The algorithm, based on what he has learned from the curves throughout the year and the various restrictions put in place that we are informing him of, expects late April or early May a situation similar to June or July of last year, when we had the peak of income, ”Pereyra warned.

The radiography shared by the three experts contains a few central elements. The first are the figures of the last few weeks, which are on the rise slowly but steadily since early March, and which were well summed up this Thursday when nearly 1,400 newly infected were reported for CABA, and for the province of Buenos Aires, more than 3,700.

There are those who instead of “second wave” prefer to say “third”, Given the steep curve a few weeks after the December vacation. But Farina said that “it was growth 15 days after the holidays, which at that time was self-limiting.” This can be seen in the charts: December’s rise is dropping sharply, but this curve, which is starting to rise, looks like a real second wave, a “mountain” wider in time.

Social behavior

What matters (and this is the other central point) is that experience has shown that the further increase in cases will not be limited like this because there is no specific event related to the rise of the curve.

The effects, on the other hand, can be bad or directly very bad, depending on how everything has been approached. AND It doesn’t depend on luck but on social behavior.

Although the greatest number of infections are occurring (like last year) in the most populous districts of the country (according to Farina, “it does not make sense, again, to speak of a national wave, but rather regionally “), provinces What Salta, Tucumán, Santiago del Estero, San Juan, Mendoza, Santa Fe and Tierra del Fuego They are also experiencing slow increases that are less noticeable because they are smaller populations, Quiroga explained.

The national scenario is that since a) there is a ‘plateau’ of Covid cases in most of the country, b) risky activities are open and c) social mobility is free, infections will increase sooner or later everywhere. Unless something is done about it.

The image is that of who is in front of a path that forks, suggested the three experts.

“The impact of this second wave will depend on individual behavior, restrictions and measures taken by leaders and the increase in the percentage of vaccinated,” Farina said.

The latter is not minor, because “if the vaccination will not influence the number of infections, it could have a positive impact on a decrease in mortality“.

These are key times. According to Quiroga, “in AMBA, the increase in cases is of sufficient concern to cancel high-risk activities, inside. We cannot have cinemas, bars or restaurants open, gymnasiums or churches. They have to operate outside ”.

Now, he admitted, “these are the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic”, but – he analyzed – “unfortunately, any economic cost will be less than the cost of a total closure in the future. “.

Possible measures

The gesture at this point should be directed towards a plan of “specific restrictive measures, in order to avoid more serious ones later ”. The minutes go by. According to Quiroga, “Limited measures only make sense if they are taken in time. Otherwise, they will not have a significant impact. “

If he could decide, Pereyra would implement as soon as possible “quarantines by sector, by zones. It would make it possible to detect the origin of the cases, to assess the vaccinated population in this sector and to determine the partial closures by neighborhood. “

In addition, “would implement hourly closures, especially at night to avoid clandestine parties and reckless gatherings. Would leave that the bars pass the tables in the streets and that would change the vaccination strategy: it would not be aimed exclusively at the elderly, but would give priority to adults, in general, with co-morbidities ”.

What about schools? It is an embarrassing debate. For Quiroga, at the national level, there are nearly “5 or 6 infected for each confirmed Covid“.

But at CABA (one of the jurisdictions where the most tests are done) the math is different: “There are plus or minus 3 infected for every positive adult. But in the Boys, which are mostly asymptomatic, would be between 8 and 10 infections that we don’t see for every positive“.

However, the expert clarified the matter: the problem is not in the mixed attendance of the school but in the fact that the closures were not adopted in other risky activities, such as “to compensate“.

What action would he take? “Night restrictions and limit meetings to a maximum of 10 people. Computer models say this is one of the most effective measures. As long as it is accomplished, henceforth. Here, a very important cultural factor is at play ”.

Eventually the individual factor and the official cunning are brought into play. For Pereyra, “the second wave will surely have the same impact as last year, but we are more prepared and calmer.” The point is, “Medical staff are vaccinated. In 2020 we had to fly a plane blind.”

AS