What strategies experts are examining to prevent a third wave of COVID-19 in Argentina

The Delta variant New coronavirus it is spreading in the world and nothing is stopping it. A month ago, it was present in 50 countries and today it affects 92 nations around the world.

Although it was detected in Argentina, it did so in 3 isolated cases of passengers from other countries and does not configure the category of “local traffic”, as now do the Gamma (Brazil) and Alpha (UK) variants, which account for over 50% of daily infections in the country.

But this Delta variant, which infectologists warn it is 80% more contagious than the original virus and up to 40% more than other variants, is the one that really worries government authorities, experts in health and immunology, in the face of a dreaded third wave of COVID-19 in the country.

Appeared in India, the new strain generates a strong epidemiological impact in United Kingdom, Russia and United States, where it already represents more than 90% of new daily contaminations. Yes caused a change in the sanitary projection of the Casa Rosada. The pandemic is not yet over, despite the advances in the vaccination plan that the management of Alberto Fernández was able to show last month, with the arrival of millions of vaccines by different routes and the optimistic discourse of the ruling party on the early arrival of the new normal.

Thus, in the last Decree of Necessity and Emergency (DNU) the President decided to add restrictions on border control and restriction of passenger entry into the country. The quota, which was 2,000 people per day, has been reduced to 600, which It affects a large number of passengers in several countries with which Argentina has direct flights. In addition, it stipulated that those returning from abroad between July 1 and August 31 would be forced to isolate themselves in places determined by local governments for 10 days. Strain already affects Mexico, Peru, Chile, Brazil and Spain, while in the United States one in five cases of COVID-19 is the dreaded variant. From these countries, planes from Miami, Lima and Madrid are operational, while the rest of these countries have been canceled.

“Entry of the Delta variant could ruin an entire vaccination process”, today warned the head of the National Directorate of Migration, Florencia Carignano, who yesterday defended the measure aimed at limiting the return from abroad to 600 passengers per day, justifying it as a “health necessity” measure whose priority is to avoid the arrival of the Delta variant and a possible outbreak of coronavirus infections, which forces a more severe restriction of activities in the country. “It is better that those who are on vacation are delayed by a few days on their return to the country that, for example, there is an upsurge in cases and face-to-face courses must be suspended or the openings made in recent weeks cannot be maintained, “added the official, according to Telam.

Lautaro de Vedia, infectologist and former president of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI), said Infobae that “potentially” the arrival of the Delta variant in the country may happen. “Intensive work is underway on passenger controls. They are strictly controlled both at CABA and in the province of Buenos Aires. So far, no viral circulation of this variant has been detected locally, ”added the expert.

The concern of the infectologist is that, in the last 15 days, 4 in 10 people who returned to the country from abroad did not comply with the mandatory quarantine at home. “Argentines who return to Argentina must pass a test of three. A PCR before getting on the plane, an antigen on arrival in the country and another PCR on the seventh day, when the isolation ends, ”states the latest presidential decree. In government, they understand that many people negative on the first two tests assume they are free from the virus and are breaking the rules. And the symptoms of a possible contagion can be recorded in the quarantine time. Hence the importance of isolation.

“The two elements to be emphasized in order to protect against new variants, apart from the control of travelers, is that We must continue to take care of ourselves, with an emphasis on preventive measures. The other big pillar is vaccination. The more we are vaccinated, the less the coronavirus will circulate among us, ”added De Vedia.

For Dr Cristina Freuler, doctor specializing in infectious diseases, head of the internal medicine department of the German hospital, the entry of the Delta variant into the country is a matter of time. Viruses are mutating all the time. And this variant is the result of a more contagious mutation, which replicates faster and easier. It will soon be the dominant variant. As viruses mutate when they replicate, as we have more circulation, variations will continue to appear. We have to reduce the viral circulation in the population and this mainly involves vaccination, ”Freuler agreed with De Vedia.

The physicist and researcher of Conicet Jorge aliaga, a data analyst told Infobae that pOn the one hand, we are seeing an increase in daily cases of COVID-19 in Argentina which could be a third wave of COVID-19. On the other hand, there is a decrease in the number of people admitted to intensive care. “ANDIt is likely that a decrease in deaths will also be seen in the coming days, but it is part of the second wave that started in MarchSaid Aliaga, a physicist at Hurlingham National University, who analyzes the data on the epidemiological situation on a daily basis.

“The question now is whether the cases of COVID-19 will continue to increase in the coming weeks. There were factors such as greater mobility and more people staying in closed places that may contribute to the increase, But now there are also fewer people susceptible to the virus because vaccination has advanced a lot. What we don’t know is if the coronavirus variants can change the scenario, ”he commented.

In Argentina, the circulation of the Gamma variant predominates, originally identified in Manaus, detected in 41% of cases. Followed by the Lambda strain (Andina), in 14% of the analyzes carried out, and finally the Alpha variant (British) with 11%. According to the report, the analysis of the last epidemiological weeks shows that in all the country more than 90% of the cases correspond to variants considered as “worrying” because of their transmissibility and their virulence.

“There is no doubt that the country will face a third wave of coronavirus in the weeks or months to come., probably linked to the newer variants with a higher viral load. We know this wave could be big in terms of cases, but the degree of damage will depend on how we move forward in the (vaccination) campaign. Before that happens, we must vaccinate a significant number of porteños, ”the Minister of Health of the City of Buenos Aires said last Friday, Fernand Quiros.

With the vaccination plan intensified by the arrival of vaccines, the Government aspires to preserve as much as possible the achievement of having reached 35% of the population vaccinated against COVID-19 while vaccination is extended daily in the 24 districts of country.

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