what the experts say to do to minimize the “Delta hit”

“There is no doubt that we are ahead a new wave”. Whenever a health minister has predicted the arrival of a peak in coronavirus cases in Argentina – except when it has been said that there is no possibility that the virus exists in the country – it is is realised. This time, Fernán Quirós, who holds this position in the city, anticipated it.

He focused on the new variants. And no one questions it. It is about knowing what to do – or not to do – so that the “Delta hit” is as light as possible. At the moment, there is no shield.

Bugle He spoke with two renowned infectologists and with Rodrigo Quiroga, a prominent researcher and biochemist from Conicet who, from Twitter, has become a “keeper of the curve”. The question in this diary was the same for everyone and the answers were the same, the one who worries.

While the number of new Covid-19 infections in the City has shown a marked decrease in recent weeks, it is clear that Quirós said what he said on the very day of a new key opening in Buenos Aires: to From this Friday it can already be eaten indoors in restaurants and bars. Respect for capacity. But inside.

He also said what he said when, despite the drop in cases, the country had a chain of more than 700 deaths every 24 hours.

The official added that “we know that this wave could be a big wave in terms of cases, but the degree of damage it will generate, that is, serious and fatal illnesses, will vary. critically depend on how we manage the campaign“vaccination.

Is the third wave inevitable? If it is massively tested today, can it be avoided tomorrow? If there was no reopening, could the impact be slowed down?

If the epicenter of the response is placed in the city – from which came the silently continuing warning of the province – Arnaldo Casiró, who is the head of infectious diseases at Álvarez hospital, gives a loud response.

“The next wave is probably inevitable, what we don’t know is its impact, as it will depend on how many vaccinated and for how long have they been vaccinated we have with one or two doses, ”he said to Bugle.

Component 2 of Sputnik V will begin packaging shortly in Argentina and there are two flights about to land in Ezeiza with more doses from this second injection. But, as always, until it takes off from Moscow, it is not clear how many doses in total they will bring and, not even, how many of each component.

With AstraZeneca, which requires two equal doses, it was determined that the diet would be completed in three months.

The strategy of vaccinating more people with a single dose than a smaller group, but with both, has lost momentum around the world since the onset of the Delta variant. Less in Argentina, where the announcements of the Ministry of Health which mark the number of injections vaccinations keep coming. But the calculation, according to the experts consulted, is that injection n ° 1 does not stop wave n ° 3.

“The big problem is the new variants. For now, the Manaus Andina are circulating and the one that originated in Great Britain, Alpha, but Delta (emerging in India) it has already entered and community circulation is a matter of time “. says Casiro.

And he quotes what happened in Great Britain, where “it was very fast. This is where the different vaccines start to play, but especially the single dose vaccination, which low in a very important way, 33% effective, according to British studies for AstraZeneca and Pfizer. “

With this level of vaccination at two doses, (only 8.36% of the population), according to the head of infectology of Alvarez “if the community circulation of Delta begins soon, the third wave will hit fast too“.

Is the delta 60% more contagious than Alpha, which in turn is more contagious than the original Wuhan variant. In addition, he avoids vaccines: “a little” with the two doses and “a lot” with only one. With the two of AstraZeneca, immunity drops by 10 to 15%.

There are no data on the efficacy against Delta from Sinopharm, which arrived late but with a delivery of 4 million in recent days, nor that of the Cansino vaccine, which the government has already acquired, for more than 5 million of these. unit doses.

But we know that in the northern hemisphere the massive screening of cases – to detect and isolate close contacts and cut the chain of infections – is another pillar in the fight against Covid. In Argentina, an average of 110,000 daily tests are barely carried out. In England, where the Delta reigns, 1 million are tested every 24 hours.

Then, Could mass testing prevent the third wave? Is. But they could gain strength. “They can contain the advance, slow it down, they are essential to prevent the circulation of asymptomatic patients, but in any case what they would do is reduce the number of cases, which is not little, not avoid a new wave, “continues Casiro.

Looking at the most federal photo of the pandemic, especially inside the country, Javier Farina, infectologist with the Argentinian Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI), emits the potential for a third sudden growth in infections and marks it as A declaration . Emphasizes reopening. That they are increasingly so in most jurisdictions.

“With the number of active cases that we have now, if the reopening continues, we will have a third wave. The way to avoid it are restrictive measuresprecisely, to reduce this mattress of daily cases that we have “, he replies.

This “cushion” is the people who spread the virus. People who are deceased or recovered do not count. “To close more I see it difficult, but it is the path that I would take to stop a third wave”, he specifies.

The insistence on “shutting down” Ezeiza

Israel did. The UK did, but belatedly, and allowed Delta to represent today 90% of new coronavirus cases in this country. The two countries, especially the first, are leaders in vaccination and have controlled the quarantine of those who returned from abroad, in addition to limiting flights from places where this variant predominated.

But still, in a moment they lowered the air guard and Delta entered their territories.

Argentina does not control the mandatory quarantine of those returning from abroad. It is based on a negative PCR which gives them the freedom to isolate themselves at home. And that of all areas of expert related to the pandemic insists on the same thing: shutting down Ezeiza. This includes the limitation of flights and the transfer to hotels, in addition to the genomic monitoring some samples.

“A wave of Delta infections is inevitable. If today we have a drop in cases with the other variants, with this level of behavior and care, everything would point to Delta, so contagious, would have an exponential level of growth“, says Rodrigo Quiroga.

He also considers that the tests “at this stage, they don’t help too much anymore. They allow you to prevent the growth of cases when there are few, when you are at high levels there is no way the tracking and isolation is slowing down. What we can do is change Delta’s contagion. This is achieved by controlling the people entering the country. ”

He sees the “matrix” of the Delta curve. This is why he insists on “closing” the strainer variant. “You can change the size of the Delta product hit. It is achieved by putting in place tighter controls on people returning to the country. The extent of the wave of infections will depend on how many people enter the country with this variant and spread it, which is why we have been pushing for the past month for the government to put in place stricter quarantine controls for them. travelers to hotels. “

But is this the third wave or is it a fact because the Delta variant is already among us? It should be specified that they were detected three cases of travelers in Ezeiza, who were isolated in the City, but the experts included in this note and others who spoke with Bugle they assure, unanimously, that the same variant has already entered the country. And if you’ve already signed up, do more restrictions on travelers make sense? The answer is yes.

“It is likely that there will be few cases in Argentina and we are in time to implement this isolation measure in the hotels, so that no Delta cases come from outside. So we can do it. Delta’s third wave is 10,000 daily cases, not 40,000 or 50,000“Quiroga shuts down.

“If three people with Delta were found at the entrance to Ezeiza, it means that there are many more than they were not detected because they were in the incubation period, and the antigen (not CRP, which is more specific) has a much lower detection capacity than CRP, ”adds Casiró.

the Canadian or Israeli model “Closing” its airports is easier than not letting its citizens out or tourists in. Nobody prevents you from leaving, but on your return, 7 to 10 days of isolation in a hotel and exit with negative PCR. The key is that upon entry, the virus can be incubating and testing negative at the airport. And it may be that what incubates is Delta.

AS