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On Saturday, the Scottish National Party (SNP) won 64 seats in the Scottish Parliament and declared victory in the national elections, held last Thursday.
Although she did not obtain an absolute majority, her leader, Nicola Sturgeon, maintains her position as chief minister and has also increased the number of parliamentary representatives of her party.
At the same time, other parties promoting Scottish independence from the UK also received many votes.
And for Sturgeon, this result leaves a clear mandate: the convening of a second referendum on independence (the first had already taken place in 2014, when the proposal to continue to be part of the conglomerate of nations that is the United Kingdom). Uni triumphed).
“Given the outcome of this election, there is simply no democratic justification for Boris Johnson (The British Prime Minister) or anyone else seeks to block the right of the Scottish people to choose our future, ”Sturgeon said.
But clarify that the priority now was managing the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed more than 120,000 lives in the UK.
Now, is this really a mandate or a biased reading of the results of these elections? Speaking of which, BBC Political Affairs Editor Laura Kuenssberg.
“There is one thing Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson agree on: Now is not the time, given the context of the covid-19 pandemic, to hold another referendum on the independence of the ‘Scotland.
But it’s also the one thing two of the most dominant figures in British politics agree on.
Beyond that, the chief minister is determined that a vote be taken within a short period of time.
Johnson, for his part, is clear he will say no to the proposal.
Now, there is one thing these leaders have in common: the two helped their respective parties to triumph, thanks to a good number of personal supporters, with a proposal that defies political tradition, which helped to renew the mandates of their parties. to reign after a decade in power.
But if the dispute between the two over the future it needs to be solved someday, only one of the two will be the winner.
From today, Sturgeon polishes his rhetoric, suggesting that Boris Johnson is a democracy denier, determined to reject the wishes of what she still calls “the Scottish people” who have expressed their desire for another. referendum.
Some of his political supporters, as well as some of Johnson’s allies, believe Johnson’s outright rejection of the option of another referendum could increase support for Scotland to move forward on its own.
And although the SNP did not obtain an absolute majority, with the support of the Green Party (Green Party), it has a majority in Parliament which supports independence.
The SNP has complete dominance in terms of seats. And the parties that promised another referendum also won.
Those who promised to block a referendum, meanwhile, lost.
Path to justice?
On the other hand, Boris Johnson is reluctant to authorize such a vote at any cost and seems determined, for now, to remain calm in the fight over the referendum.
In his arsenal of arguments, Johnson refers to the fact that the law, particularly Schedule 5, Part 1 of the Scottish Law (which we’ll be hearing a lot about in the coming months, I expect) says in black and white that the constitution , it is a “reserved question”.
In other words, any change in the way the country is governed or who is in charge of that government is a decision that must be made by the British politicians who occupy seats in the British Parliament.
Now jurists are unsure how this can be interpreted in court. in the possible scenario that the discussion reaches this instance.
Panic the treat
While Sturgeon has the Scottish Parliament on his side and Boris Johnson has the power and support to say ‘no’ to a new referendum, both also have their struggles.
The Scottish leader can say that her country’s parliament is pro-independence, but she knows full well that her people are divided on this point.
This is explained by John Curtice, expert in poll analysis: “It seems that the SNP plus the Greens are targeting 49% of the constituency’s votes, and that the SNP plus the Greens and Alba (nationalist, independence party) can win. 51% of the votes in these elections. ”
“Indeed, the only sure conclusion that can be drawn from these results is that Scotland is divided in two on this institutional question. “, Explain.
Sturgeon has a reliable majority in favor of a referendum in Parliament, but not in popular votes.
And while the prospect of another referendum delights many voters, it also creates panic among others.
In addition, various fronts that support staying in the UK will remind her, whenever they can, that she and other politicians said the 2014 referendum was “unique to every generation”.
On the other hand, Johnson may soon realize that a ‘no’ to the demand of the new Scottish Parliament will prove that the London government is simply not listening. which is one of the sentiments that has led many Scots to embrace the cause of independence.
And while the Johnson government is 100% sure it does not want another referendum, it is unclear how to increase support for union rhetoric.
The issue is debated more frequently today than in recent years, with promises of a new attitude, more funding and an approach that contributes to the UK effort.
But while there appears to be a genuine belief in conservative circles that “something must be done”, debates about what might be convincing and how it might be convincing remain rather vague.
Neither Johnson nor Sturgeon want to open an all-out battle in this regard just yet. It’s a fight that has been delayed, but has not gone away.
The two successful leaders are in an awkward status quo and for that to change one of them would have to lose.
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