What to expect from the López Obrador government?

CITY OF MEXICO (ADNPolítico) –

What will happen when Andrés Manuel López Obrador becomes president? This is the question that has surrounded your mind, that of the candidate, that of all Mexicans and even that of the elites of other countries.

Thinking of the script becomes unavoidable before the overwhelming triumph of the politician born 64 years ago. years in Tabasco, which got more than 30 million votes on July 1

ADNPolítico spoke with academics from the Center for Economic Research and Education (CIDE) who badyzed the likely scenarios for Mexico These are the conclusions of Sandra Ley, Carlos Bravo and Froylán Enciso on what would happen to Congress, political parties and civil society in this government.

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"Mexico of the First Year of the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador will not look anything like Mexico from the last or the year of Enrique Peña Nieto 's government, "warned Carlos Bravo, historian, political badyst and director of CIDE journalism.

Bravo explained that the promised change will not be seen immediately because the destiny of the country does not depend solely on the president. Institutions, laws and social reality limit their power and some of them will change after the elections. In addition, there is the size of the promises that he made in the campaign

The most controversial proposal, perhaps, is the amnesty as an approach to the strategy of security.

See also: The AMLO team considers amnesty and pardon for pacification

"Of all the words that López Obrador could have chosen to name this proposal or this alternative vision, the amnesty was the worst, "criticized Regidor Bravo, who considers that the choice of term has prevented the proposal from being communicated and objectively debated.

Migrating from a punitive security policy to a policy that seeks justice and reconciliation, he warned, is not something that can happen overnight. short-term results

"You will still have shots here and there, you're going to have attacks on journalists, badaults on politicians, clashes between groups and to deal with this, with day-to-day daily violence, amnesty does not help you.You will not remove the army from the places where you are, you will not recycle the police, "he said. said in an interview with ADNPolítico .

You may be interested in: "Amnesty would help obtain information about missing persons," say families

In his speech as a candidate for Together we will make history, López Obrador also promised major changes in public spending and the elimination of corruption.Is kindly say – to some problems when it comes to recognizing and being able to the acts of waste or corruption of people who are followers. You've already seen what happened to Layda Sansores, "says the historian.

These limits and the contrast of reality with the expectations generated in the campaign will cause a double disenchantment with the virtual government of Japan. AMLO: He will not be as good and his followers promise, not as bad as his detractors say. "(He will have to do) symbolic acts or certain strategic decisions that allow him to gain time to design and implement policies of which the fruits we will start to know, perhaps, in the third or fourth year of the government, "said Bravo.

" Sell the presidential plane, take the pensions of former presidents, concede the construction of the new airport in Mexico and no longer have to weigh public money. Maybe lowering the salaries of the high bureaucracy, no? These are things you can do in the short term, which will send the signal that you are doing things according to the campaign promises made and that this will allow, say, to extend the honeymoon with the electorate.

At the end of the Preliminary Program of Electoral Results (PREP), Morena was confirmed as the first political force in the Congress of the Union. If the Morena, PT and PES coalition is maintained, his caucus will have 312 of 500 federal MPs and 79 of 128 senators.

In addition, Morena won five of the nine gubernatas at stake: Mexico City, Morelos, Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz

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"One of the concerns that awaits us (…) is to reflect on how we deal with a possible process of political polarization.I think it's important to think about what's going on. pbaded in the legislative elections, how it will be possible to govern with the possible polarization, with what will be an opposition that has never known any real opposition.Because the polarization has left us very bad results for the Calderonist administration, "said Sandra Ley, of the Division of Political Studies.

Froylán Enciso emphasized the importance of continuity that the Morena-PES alliance can have as a basis for negotiating the conservative agenda in exchange for paying for governability in a possible lopezobradorista mandate.

"If, in a given scenario, the PES could negotiate substantive issues – such as the budget itself or another hypothetical subject – in exchange for concessions to the Conservatives on rights-related issues, especially for women and Sexual Diversity (…) A fundamental change for the party system will be the creation of this new majority group that is Morena and her allies, which ensures stability, governability, but uncertainty about the content. "[19659007] For Enciso, the triumph of AMLO will unleash the revival of the elite and a reconfiguration of political forces that during the campaigns was reflected in the battle for third place.

"The role of the Calderonists as pokers of this conflict is fundamental and speaks to you of the desire of Calderón and Margarita Zavala to maintain a sufficient political capital to recover (…) what remains of the PAN after Anaya or to train her. and in this scenario of reconfiguration of the right, given the possibility that the PRI remains in the bones, I would not see very far an electoral scenario where the technocratic group moved by the lopezobradorismo allies with a sector PAN, "he said.

"We do not know if Meade, after this election, will take refuge with what remains of the PAN," he summarized.

You may also read: The PAN, the PRI and the PRD are undergoing an electoral debacle

The other relay would be that of the cabinet that López Obrador proposed, which would replace the so-called "PRIItam" directed by Luis Videgaray by more socialist and liberal civil servants.

"This change mainly represents the economic cabinet formed by Carlos Urzúa, Graciela Márquez as secretaries of finance and the economy, and Gerardo Esquivel as one of López Obrador's chief advisers in economic matters ( …) And the second, I think that's what to do with the value of the presence, the work of women in position of power? We must emphasize and it is very important to applaud the parity in the firm; this is something we've never seen in Mexico.A key appointment in this direction is that of Olga Sánchez Cordero, "he said in an interview

. Ley Gutiérrez highlights the role of civil society in a government led by AMLO. From his point of view, the challenge for this sector is to remain critical and to promote aspects such as transparency and accountability.

This scenario will be particularly important after a campaign in which López Obrador was confronted by civil society organizations. what he calls "fifí" and the business leaders he describes as a "rapacious minority".

To find out more: López Obrador wants a non-civil prosecutor's election

"They already had a way of working with the government and that will change because the legitimacy from which they got this position that they would not have … In the eyes of the new government, they no longer have it, "says Carlos Bravo.

" They will have to find a way to work with him or not to work with him, but there is still learning.And like them, the parties that remain in the opposition, the Supreme Court, everyone.We will all be in a learning process – parallel to the learning process that will take place within government – about how we work, including how we fight with this government, "he anticipated [19659040]. [ad_2]
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