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In the market, they believe that the tension with the dollar and bonds will continue. Qualifiers about to set the default country. Strangers on the economic future
"It has not stopped, things have calmed down a bit, but here nothing has changed – one government out and weakened and another one that has four months to start." This will result in high volatility. and, in the middle, sparks in price, "warned an investment fund to ensure that the truce of the last two days of the week is, finally, that: just a truce.
"We will continue to put pressure on all fronts, every day will be a battle, the market has been hit very hard, and any news can trigger more discomfort," predicts the experienced trader.
Consultatio, the company of guru Eduardo Costantini, agrees with this badessment. "With a government that has no power and power that it does not have, the transition to December 10 looks like an eternity." The price of badets will depend on how this transition will develop, "he said.
The uncertainty about the present and the future is not for less: the local and international financial community has gone from paradise to hell, without scale. The operators left their offices on Friday 9 amidst a climate of euphoria without imagining the nightmare that awaited them 48 hours later.
The retail dollar climbed 25% during the fateful week, to $ 58.12; while bank paper collapsed by 50% in dollars and bonds suffered a 30% loss. The feeling that floated in the environment is that Argentina is about to stumble over a new default on its debt.
"Dollar bond prices have fallen to restructuring values, with parities below 50%", Consultatio Asset Management details.
"In terms of profitability, we find that bad debts continue with the upward trend, which affects the profitability of banks.On the other hand, due to the prevailing economic uncertainty and, in particular, , future economic and financial policies, growth The potential of the sector is a big unknown, so we think there is still room for new challenges, "notes Delphos.
Rating agencies have appeared
Friday did not help with the appearance of Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor's (S & P). Both reduced the debt rating and left it default. The latter was fuming with the forecasts on Argentina:
– "The pronounced turbulence of the financial market, with a significant depreciation of the Argentine peso and a rise in interest rates, after the primary elections last Sunday in Argentina, have considerably weakened the already vulnerable financial profile of the sovereign."
–"This more complex economic scenario (with a deeper and prolonged recession, even stronger inflation and tighter dynamics for debt and financing) is increasing challenges for both current and future authorities as a result October elections and with a new government taking office in December.
– "The negative outlook reflects the risks Argentina faces, while the government is working to stabilize the economic and financial markets, and there is still uncertainty about the private sector's willingness renewing its public debt and keeping its holdings in pesos while depreciating highlights the government's high funding requirements. "
Dollar: projections
The BofA forecast does not stop there: he notes that the exchange rate will accompany inflation next year (around 50%) and that the dollar will reach the end of 2020 (the first hypothetical year Alberto and Cristina) at 106.6 pesos for one dollar.
Another relevant question is the debt, or rather how this government stands still and the one that remains with respect to repayment (or not?) Bonds. UBS, another giant investment bank, says that Argentina 's default is not a foregone conclusion.
But for that it misses an eternity. The very short term is what prevails in the market. And the keys to watch ahead, according to Consultatio, are:
-The signals of Fernández and his team in economic matters. Since the victory is almost neglected, their claims on economic issues are very relevant and have the ability to be transferred to the market.
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