What will the war between the United States and China look like?

The United States and China have a similar problem, each needing the other to grow, but not too much. Its own development depends on the rival and that for now the unbreakable bond defines the relationship above the differences between the two giants. It is because of this dilemma that the People’s Republic should not be confused with the Soviet Union or that a fanciful parallel should be drawn between the Cold War era and the East-West conflict with the current scenario.

The tensions of this stage, which fueled alarming visions with clashes in public, but not so much in private, at the recent diplomatic summit in Alaska, which ended without a declaration, are part of the rnecessary formatting of this link after the failure of the strategy of the former government of Donald Trump.

America is screaming today with the intention to be heard, mindful of the certainty that his leadership capacity was clearly eroded during the tycoon’s tenure. A failure that paved the way for China for a new leap forward at different levels in the world, but strongly in its space of influence, ignoring the limits demanded by its North American rival, but also those related to the basic realism of coexistence.

Needs

Beijing needs the American and European markets to ensure your growth cycle, but act as if history is on your side and nothing can stand in the way of your plan. That sentiment was translated this week in the US Senate by US Admiral John Aquilino, saying that “we have seen aggressive action sooner than expected, whether on the Indian border, in Hong Kong or against the Uyghurs. We have seen things I’m wearing. I don’t think we expected, so I keep talking about a sense of urgency. We need to be ready today. “

Aquilino is a military hawk and he is responsible for occupying the Indo-Pacific command. His comment highlighted the situation in Taiwan, which he sees as a more imminent danger than one might think due to the momentum of the Asian giant’s expansion.

China, embracing the classical realism which maintains that interests are defined in terms of power, sees Taiwan as part of its territory and is one of the axes of its claim against the United States so that it does not interfere of his internal problems.

There is an underlying factor to this conflict. For Beijing, its rival is in decline and Trump’s experience would confirm this certainty. Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute for International Studies at the prestigious Fudan University in Shanghai, argued that the “Republican’s reckless policies” “accelerated and intensified America’s decline and greatly weakened the status and influence of the United States. United on the international scene ”.

In this, Xi Jinping, the president and virtual monarch of this capitalist China, firmly believes, who since 2011, a year before his rise to power, repeats the litany that “As the East grows, the West declines.” While serving as an example of the Soviet Union, like the Kremlin at that time, the Chinese Communist Party’s aversion to the United States runs deep.

“Because China and the United States have long-standing conflicts over their different ideologies, social systems and foreign policies it will be impossible to improve relations between the two ”, argued for a Chinese military document as early as 1993.

The cries against the People’s Republic of the diplomacy of President Joe Biden, seek to reverse this perception, also with the calculated and fortuitous offensive against Russia, a close ally of the Central Empire. It is a position which imposes the scene, but in the distance, except in the event of an accident exceeding the foreseeable timeframe, in its consequences of the tragic outcome of an alleged war in gestation that some analysts underline. There are less-cited authors who can help figure out the moment.

In his famous Wars of the 21st Century (Head your Head), MIT and Harvard economist Lester Thurow argued thirty years ago that new conflicts would be deathless and for commercial spaces. The story was not very kind to this prophecy, because the future world Thurow saw did not include China, but Japan and Europe. Other than that, the bullets didn’t stop. But history today shows that many of this intellectual’s ideas came from the right path.

The United States recognizes that imposing sanctions is a limited strategy. During Trump’s trade war on tariffs, China did not retreat but amplified its influence and even maintained its trade surplus with the United States. Either way, the Biden government will maintain the sanctions because withdrawing or moderating them would be a sign of weakness, and at this point the Democratic leader is ready to make as much noise as possible about the North American “comeback”.

At this point, he enjoys partial backing from the European Union, which has also triggered sanctions, although he does not reverse his intense ties at all levels with Beijing. As noted by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who was with Chancellor Antony Blinken at the Alaska meeting, “In today’s world, power is increasingly measured and exercised in economic terms”. It is also a realistic view.

Biden argues that to limit China, the United States. you have to multiply your skill level, with greater investments in technological areas in which the Central Empire leads or threatens to do so, including space. It’s a long road and the denouement reveals why the Central Empire is also necessary for the Western leader.

The data

A study published in March by the Union of Swiss Banks and broadcast by Swiss media Time, gives an idea of ​​the real significance of this breed. These are only examples, but illustrative. The United States has 293,000 industrial robots, 113 supercomputers and devotes 5% of their GDP to research and development (figures from 2013 to 2018). The Chinese figures for these same concepts are: 783 thousand robots, 214 supercomputers and 10.6% of GDP invested in research.

United States, in addition, must regain America’s appeal as a safe and robust investment site international. One piece of information is relevant to this concern. Foreign direct investment in the United States fell 49% to $ 134 billion last year, according to a report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

On the contrary, in China, it rose 4% to 163 billion dollars in 2020, the first time that this trend has been reversed in favor of the Asian giant. China is now the world’s largest recipient of foreign business investment in a large and complicated world panorama where, for example, investment, over the same period, fell by 100% in the United Kingdom, by 96% in Russia or by 61% in Germany.

Therefore, it is not clear, nor perhaps it is not possible, that the push by the People’s Republic could be altered or stopped to prevent it from becoming the world’s greatest economic power for a handful. years, as Trump intended to prevent it. Understand that it is crucial for the future strategy as well as the factual fact of the relevant contribution of the People’s Republic, in the order of 30%, to the expansion of the world economy after the coronavirus disaster.

For businesses, these problems are solved. A recent survey in line with United Nations data, conducted by the Standard chartered bank London based and financial magazine Europe Fund, found that “over 90% of respondents noted that the importance of the People’s Republic will continue to grow in their investment strategies and 61% indicated that they would increase their investments in Chinese assets over the next 12 months.

This is based on the fact that the Central Empire has a consumer middle class unrivaled in the rest of the world of nearly 500 million members, size which will double in a few years. The eloquence of this market considerably narrows other debates and makes the Asian giant essential for the West. As he recently critically pointed out The EconomistThis is the reason why large global corporations “ignore” the allegations of abuse, authoritarianism or violations that fill the Western political discourse against Beijing.

But its expanding economy and political influence have not only brought good news to the new China. One effect of this development has been waste your sweet power of seduction and show, on the contrary, an overly aggressive and self-sufficient diplomatic vision. These tensions and styles jeopardize, or at least delay, the ambitious investment agreement that Beijing has concluded with the European Union to reciprocally open its markets.

These are faults on which the United States is betting The Chinese imperialist vision, like that of its North American rival, is based on alignments which are no longer possible. As Xi Jinping himself said at the Davos Forum last January, “the differences in themselves are not alarming. What is alarming is arrogance, prejudice and hatred “. This is a message that must also be addressed in a Chinese key.
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