When do scientists recommend lifting pandemic restrictions?

With the coronavirus spreading around the world and without vaccines or specific treatments in the first months of 2020, governments began to establish various restrictions on the mobility of the population to slow its expansion. Mass lockdowns have affected more than half of the world’s population while the use of chinstrap or masks, distancing, avoiding encounters in closed spaces with non-cohabitants, and permanent ventilation of spaces closed such as offices, hospitals and schools were also favored. Over the months, vaccines have been developed with high efficacy and safety to prevent complications and death, and the dilemma has arisen: when should it be appropriate to lift restrictions when vaccines are already available. ?

A team of German researchers sought to give a scientific answer. The new analysis suggests that, to strengthen freedoms and protect against new waves of COVID-19, the pace at which restrictions are lifted to reduce the spread should be directly related to the vaccination rate. The team consisted of Simon Bauer, Viola Priesemann and their colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Germany, who published their results in the open access journal Computational Biology PLOS.

More than a year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination programs promise to alleviate many of the burdens caused by the disease, including necessary restrictions that have had social and economic consequences. So far, more than 5.41 billion doses of vaccine have been administered worldwide, equivalent to 71 doses per 100 people. Although there is a big difference between the immunization programs of different countries: only 1.8% of the population in low-income countries has had access to a dose of the vaccine. The United Arab Emirates, Portugal and Qatar are the countries that have vaccinated their populations the most with the full pattern: they have already exceeded 80%.

Much of the research in Germany has focused on the allocation and prioritization of vaccines, and the optimal ways to control the spread. However, how to make a smooth transition from an unprotected population to possible population immunity remains an open question.

To answer this question, Bauer and his colleagues applied mathematical models to epidemiological and vaccine data from Germany, France, the UK, and other European countries. They quantified the rate at which restrictions could be lifted during vaccine distribution to mitigate the risk of waves of peak COVID-19 cases crushing intensive care units.

By considering different possible scenarios, the researchers came to the conclusion that further serious waves can only be avoided if restrictions are not lifted faster than the pace dictated by vaccine progress, and that fundamentally nothing is gained if restrictions are relaxed too fast.

The results suggest that even After 80% of the adult population has been vaccinated, new, more infectious variants could trigger a new wave of COVID-19 and saturate intensive care units if all restrictions are lifted. “In such a case, the restrictions should be quickly reinstated, thus doing away with the mirage of freedom,” Priesemann said in a statement.

“In addition, a premature facelift would have high morbidity and mortality costs. Meanwhile, the easing of restrictions on the vaccination rate shows almost the same progress in ‘freedom’, keeping the incidence low, ”he commented. The study was funded by the Max Planck Society and the National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research.

The researchers say their findings suggest that, Despite public pressure, policymakers should not rush to relax restrictions and a high vaccination rate should be maintained, especially among high-risk populations. Likewise, scientists have recognized that further research will be necessary to design optimal scenarios from a global perspective.

A few days ago, The results of another study on the effect of changes in mobility at the suburban level were known months after the COVID-19 epidemic in Latin America. In this case, the goal was examine “longitudinal associations between population mobility and the incidence of COVID-19 at the sub-city level in a large number of Latin American citiesExplained scientists Josiah Kephart, Xavier Declos Alió and Daniel Rodríguez, authors of the research published in The Lancet.

In this longitudinal ecological study, experts compiled aggregate data on the location of cell phones, daily confirmed cases of COVID-19, and characteristics of urban and social settings to analyze population mobility and the incidence of COVID. -19 at the sub-city level. 100,000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico, from March 2 to August 29, 2020.

“The United Nations Development Program in Latin America and the Caribbean and Grandata have provided spatially aggregated mobile phone data; confirmed cases of COVID-19 come from reports from national governments and demographic and socio-economic factors come from each country’s last national census, ”they said. They included 1,031 suburban areas, representing 314 cities in Latin America, Argentina (107 suburban areas), Brazil (416), Colombia (82), Guatemala (20) and Mexico (406).

“In the main model equipped, we observed 10% less weekly mobility which was associated with an 8.6% lower incidence of COVID-19 the following week. This association gradually weakened as the gap between mobility and the incidence of COVID-19 increased, ” showed the results of the study, indicating that the reduction in population movements in a suburban area is associated with a subsequent decrease in the incidence of COVID-19 among residents. “Policies that reduce the mobility of suburban populations may be an effective COVID-19 mitigation strategyalthough they must be combined with strategies that mitigate the negative social and economic consequences of reduced mobility for the most vulnerable groups, ”the scientists concluded.

About 80% of Latin America’s population lives in urban areas, and many of the most serious outbreaks of COVID-19 have occurred in cities in Latin America. “In an attempt to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, los gobiernos se han basado en intervenciones regionales o en toda la ciudad para reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, mediante el establecimiento de políticas universales, como las restricciones para quedarse en House. While these widespread measures have helped mitigate the impact of COVID-19, they have resulted in substantial social and economic costs, especially in many Latin American cities where widespread transmission and restrictions associated with home support have persisted, ”the experts analyzed.

In the five countries studied, peri-urban areas experienced a substantial drop in mobility towards the end of March. Suburban areas across countries saw sharp reductions in mobility in March 2020, even before federal restrictions began. In Argentina, Colombia and Mexico, reductions in mobility persisted over the following months, with relatively narrow variability within the country. In contrast, in Brazil and Guatemala, daily mobility gradually returned to rates similar to benchmark mobility, with great variability within the country.

In terms of the average daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases, A large variation within the country was found between the suburban areas of the same country. As of August 2020, the incidence of COVID-19 in suburban areas of Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico was declining or stable, while In Argentina, the incidence of COVID-19 continued to increase.

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