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The advance of the delta variant concerns related to the coronavirus in Argentina. But experts still can’t agree on when he’ll feel strong, or even if he ever will.
One element that can help predict what will happen is the analysis of the curves of the places where this variant is already the main one. The first conclusion that can be drawn is that the country is between peaks of contagion, so it would not be unusual for a fourth wave to occur due to the delta variant.
At the same time, government officials have already warned that we are about to delta variant is community circulation, which is not the same as the predominant variant. If contagion curves in other countries are revised, we can expect that by the end of this month the delta variant is most common in Argentina.
It takes longer for the peak. In India, the country where this strain was first detected, the delta variant it took four months to proliferate, and it took another month to become the most common and generate a peak.
The same situation happened in Europe. Spain and the United Kingdom waited 5 months between the peak of the coronavirus in January and the one that generated the delta end of July. In England, they are still fighting the disease, with measures that seek to lower the circulation of people and thus stop infections.
In case of Argentina
Local experts are between hope and pessimism when they formulate predictions on the delta variant. Consulted by the journal Clarin, the Spanish epidemiologist Enrique Bassat assured that this strain “will develop in ArgentinaHe also added that the process for it to prevail over the other variants can take between three and four months, which means that if there is a spike, it will happen towards the end of the year.
Those who show the most hope speak of the number of vaccinated people who will be in the region by the time the delta variant be the main one. Computer specialist Soledad Retamar, who studies the progress of the pandemic in the world, assured that it is still not certain that there will be a new peak due to the delta variant, and stressed that “at the regional level, in South America, we are not having an impact as one might expect”.
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