Where is the brexit going? These are the possible scenarios

Where is the brexit going? What can Boris Johnson do? Only a fool would offer a prediction, but these are some possible paths.

Johnson gets an agreement

Perhaps the Prime Minister accepts a border in the Irish Sea. Perhaps the European Union is yielding and proposing amendments to the parties to the agreement reached by its predecessor, Theresa May, which addresses the controversial issue of the Irish border.

But can it be approved by Parliament? Perhaps. To do this, it should significantly reduce the number of "Spartans", the 28 Conservatives in favor of Brexit who have never voted for the May agreement. Two of them, Priti Patel and Theresa Villiers, are now in the officeso they would probably be on board.

To convince others, Johnson could argue that he got the best deal available and that refusing it would mean breaking his promise to take the UK out of the EU by October 31st. Johnson argues that failure would mean extinction for conservatives and potentially jeopardize Brexit.

Johnson opts for an exit without agreement

Government legal experts are finding a legal vacuum in the law pbaded last week to force Johnson to seek an extension. Either Johnson simply ignores it, or persuades the EU to reject its request for extension. Britain leaves the EU without any agreement on October 31, and Johnson, who needs a majority in Parliament, is seeking election.

The result of this choice will depend very much on how a brexit will develop without agreement. If, as Johnson wishes, the disruption is minimal, he could end the Nigel Farage Brexit party and present himself as the man he finally achieved. The goal would be to get seats in regions that support Brexit to compensate the missing in countries angry at what the government has done.

The danger for Johnson would be that of an election in a context of roads being blocked by lorries lining up outside ports, shortages of food and medicine, closures of factories and aircraft. A humiliating British return to the EU negotiating table, asking for an agreement. after all.

Johnson returns

He said he preferred to be dead in a ditch than to delay Brexit beyond October 31st. But unless he reaches an agreement, the law now says that he must do it. Facing the threat of mbadive resignations from his government when he refuses to obey the law, Johnson agrees to seek an extension and, with him, calls for an election to Parliament. This time, the Labor opposition party is in agreement. Britain held its first elections in December for almost 100 years and Johnson says the people should sit in Parliament.

By not keeping his promise to "make or die" to get Britain out of the EU, Johnson fights for the elections as a weakened character, and the Brexit Party tells voters that only Farage can do the job. The vote in favor of Brexit is divided and the Labor Party is the largest party in Parliament. Jeremy Corbyn is about to become prime minister, with the commitment of a new referendum on the brexit.

Johnson resigns or is deported

He can not break the law, he can not avoid it, but he will not bend it, so the Prime Minister announces his resignation. Or he tries to leave without an agreement, but loses a motion of censure and is forced to resign. Who will succeed?

The Conservatives would blame someone else for "betraying the Brexit" and then try to defeat him in the inevitable elections. Johnson could suggest to Queen Elizabeth II to invite Corbyn to form a governmentbut he may have less support among members of Parliament than Johnson. It might be better, from the point of view of the workers, to install another person with a temporary mandate to request an extension of Brexit. Labor would block all other members of their ranks, so a more neutral figure would be needed.

Former Conservative finance minister, Ken Clarke, is widely respected and too old to represent a significant risk of trying to extend his prime ministerial stay. Brexit is late and elections are under way. Johnson looks for a term for an exit without agreement and Corbyn encourages a second referendum. Even in this, the work is divided. Deputy Party Director Tom Watson will deliver a speech on Wednesday in which he will explain that the second referendum on Brexit should take place before the elections.