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07-26-2018
You beat the deposits adjusted by UVA, Lebac or the dollar. The calculation is based on the 192-day Lete that was placed on January 10 and paid a rate of 2.80%
The Treasury yesterday renewed $ 400 million of Treasury bills in dollars ( Letes ) that expire on Friday. With Monday's newspaper in hand this short-term financing path that the government found for resorting to domestic savings, even the retailer, appears as one of the most profitable investments of the year, compared to conservative and easily accessible alternatives for unsophisticated savers.
As it makes sense, being an instrument in dollars that can be written with pesos has more than covered the devaluation to those who bet on it, as well as generating a return on foreign currencies. But if we measure the result obtained so far this year in pesos and in real terms, in addition, they gave a result of 27% after discounting the price. inflation ] Very higher than UVA, Lebac or flat dollar adjusted deposits, among other alternatives.
Calculating the results of posterior investments may be an exercise in lying similar to the estimate of what would have been obtained to hit a lottery number once it was fired ( for example, the stock of Tenaris flies 70% since the end of 2017). However, it may be interesting to see what happened to badets in a similar segment, for example Conservative Investments readily available to retail investors.
In this line, the result of investing in Letes in dollars seems simple. The one who subscribed these letters and waited for their expiration was covered against the devaluation and also received a return in dollars . But even more interesting is to think what happened to the saving power of those who bet on these roles, ie to compare with inflation.
Mariano Sardans, CEO of FDI, Lete to 192 days who placed the Treasury in the offer of January 10, expires this Friday, was published 2 days ago later and paid a annual nominal rate in dollars of 2.80%.
"From January 12 to today the dollar represents a 1.50% in dollars, gives us a total of 45.80% in pesos in" L & # 39; accumulated inflation from January 12 until the end of this Friday is about 18.30% on the basis of estimated inflation. for July of the order of 3%, "added Sardans." The profitability of the Lete (with adjustment of the exchange rate and the accumulation of rates) provides a cumulative rate of 27.5% by over inflation accumulated period, "he concluded. That's to say, a few points above having saved in dollars dollars.
Rodrigo Land, of First, estimates the accumulated yield of the Lete issued in early January to 46% accumulated in pesos, in nominal terms. This implies a result which, in annualized terms, would be equivalent to a nominal rate of 86% in pesos.
Miguel Zielonka, of Econviews, prefers to compare the deposits adjusted for UVA, the index created by the Central Bank to adjust credits and deposits for inflation.
"When we subscribed, taking into account the performance paid at the beginning of the year, would have today $ 101.40 for every $ 100 invested, alternatively if you had made a fixed-term UVA t e would have capitulated CER plus 3% as the CER accumulates about 16% in the year, plus 1.5%, you would have taken 17.5% in pesos ",
" Translated into dollars, with the UVA fixed term you would have about US dollars today. against u101,40 what you have with Lete, "he concluded.
The Lebac, the money supply regulatory tool that became the first two years of the Macri era in an alternative investment even for the savers on foot, did not experience a good first half of the year.
According to the calculations of GMA Capital roll the shortest Lebac every month (ie, invest in Lebac at one month and come in capital and interest to reinvest in a new Lebac at the same time) until now in 2018 badumed a accumulated result in nominal pesos of 20.3%, that is, a few points above inflation accumulated. With the dollar pulling more than 45% over the period, this implied a loss of dollars: a negative return of 17.4% in hard currency.
The rates of the Letes s reach 5.5% in the latest issues at one year, when the rate rises in the United States and the increase in sovereign risk L & # 39; Argentina forced the Treasury to offer a higher yield for its short-term debt . Yesterday, however, according to El Cronista, the 182-day Lete was placed at 3.75% per annum in dollars, below its peaks of the year but well above the level where it had been issued at the beginning of the year.
Although anticipations of the exchange rate advance seem soothing in the future, which requires a new valuation before subscribing to these papers, it is clear that those who had their savings in Letes during the worst of the race against weight, they slept quieter than the rest
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