Why do China and Russia continue to support Maduro? – 28/01/2019

Venezuela is plunged into an institutional, political, social and economic crisis that has already caused millions of displaced people and thousands of deaths. Nicolás Maduro has decided to stay in power despite the many marches of the opposition, an economy in recession, unemployment, shortages and galloping inflation.

Until now, the Chavez regime has managed to resist, largely thanks to the support of the armed forces and some international actors, notably China and Russia. China has found in Venezuela the main point of entry for its military exports to Latin America. It is the main and almost unique country that has provided arms to Caracas in 2016 and 2017 for several million dollars. By contrast, Russia has sold 65% of the weapons acquired in Venezuela over the past decade.

Clarin Bulletins

What you need to know today | The most important news of the day to read in ten minutes

Monday to Friday morning.

The Maduro regime has been one of the major buyers of military technology of the two powers in recent years. Although he has reduced his acquisitions lately due to the crisis, he remains the main importer of arms of Latin America in the last decade.

The possible consequences of a democratic return to Venezuela on international production levels and oil prices must also be taken into account. Although it has the largest reserves of crude in the world, Venezuelan production has fallen to less than half of its potential. The consolidation of a new government that restores production, leading to a drop in the international price of crude oil, would have a direct impact on the Russian economy.

Finally, it is worth mentioning the huge debt that Caracas has accumulated with the two powers, mainly because of multi-million dollar investment agreements over the last decade, characterized by accusations of corruption and embezzlement. funds. During his last tour in Moscow, for example, Maduro announced new agreements involving $ 6,000 million in joint projects in the oil and gold sectors.

It is likely that a new government will thoroughly review several of these agreements. It is clear that for the great powers, ideological affinities only become strong when they accompany strategic considerations. As indicated by a famous mantra repeated over the course of history, states have neither friends nor permanent enemies, but only permanent interests.

Lautaro Rubbi is professor-researcher at UADE – CONICET.