Why Donald Trump accepted the diplomatic channel and postponed for the moment the humanitarian intervention in Venezuela

Donald Trump and the Lima Group they play chess. One day before the summit of Bogotá, Juan Guaidó authorized the broadcast of an official communiqué proposing "Use of force against the regime to block humanitarian aid"This war cry of the president in charge of Venezuela has been sterilized by the coordinated action of Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Colombia.

The Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence, who arrived in Bogota to reinforce this Guaidó movement, He had to hold his arms and propose new diplomatic measures strengthen the institutional and financial asphyxia of the populist regime. Grupo Lima reproduced Trump's cross-cutting strategy and published a final document of the Bogotá Summit where the "use of force" is excluded put an end to Maduro and propose a coordinated action to strengthen Guaidó and accelerate the democratic transition in Venezuela.

Trump thinks it's not possible to expel Maduro through the diplomatic pathand brought together a group of advisers who hide their true intentions after a discourse supposed to privilege cooperation between States and the role of multilateral organizations. Eliott Abrams He is an accomplished hawk who was the protagonist of Iran-Contras and illegal operations of the CIA during the dictatorship of El Salvador (1980s).

Abrams is Trump's advisor in the Venezuelan crisis and collaborates with John Bolton, a former George W. Bush official who participated in the charade to prove that there were weapons of mbad destruction in Iraq.

It has already been proven that everything was a lie organized by the White House, and Bolton was involved in the preparation of this media fraud. The President of the United States knows that the European Union and the Lima Group they will not accept a military escalation against Maduro until exhaustion of diplomatic efforts or until the occurrence of an extraordinary event involving an extraordinary military action against the populist regime.

Pence explained Trump's strategy during his speech at the summit in Bogotá. The US vice-president asked the Lima group of countries to take over all the Venezuelan badets installed in their country, then hand them over or liquidate the Guaidó-appointed officials. It is a question of deteriorating the finances or the badets of Maduro, which until now has a smooth financing from China and Russia.

In addition, at the Bogota summit, Pence announced additional badistance of $ 56 million humanitarian aid to the millions of Venezuelans who have had to go into exile and no longer have any weight to live. The $ 56 million will provide "the necessary basic housing, food and health services, as well as livelihoods that will help Venezuelans who have fled to integrate into the communities of the region that receive them. ", the statement said. press distributed by the State Department.

But Pence's most interesting proposal was related to the military leadership that still meets Maduro. Vice President proposed amnesty for all servicemen which are under investigation by the United States.

"President Guaidó does not want to take revenge on you, nor does the United States. Today, if all members of the armed forces take the flag of democracy, President Guaidó and his government, as well as the United States Government, will welcome your support and relieve you of the sanctions that have been adopted. "said Mr. Pence without euphemisms.

So, Trump and his crisis cabinet have a two-phase strategy. Encourage diplomacy in all its variables and, in the likely absence of results, deploy CIA marines and agents to the streets of Caracas. The White House will not insist that foreign relations enslave Maduro. It is only a strategy: Trump believes that Maduro does not believe in diplomacy, but tries to contain the Lima group, the OAS, the United Nations and the European Union. When in Washington they consider that diplomatic efforts have resulted in nothing, the Southern Command will be prepared under the political orders of Bolton and Abrams, who always considered the intervention as the best method to finish with Maduro.

The Lima group knows Trump's true intentions and sterilizes them diplomatic actions multiplied strengthen Guaidó and accelerate political times towards democratic transition and free elections. In this regard, it has decided "to request the International Criminal Court (ICC) to take into account the serious humanitarian situation in Venezuela, the criminal violence exercised by the Nicolás Maduro regime against the civilian population and the refusal to pay. access to international badistance, which constitutes a crime against humanity ".

Until now, Maduro is protected by China, Russia, Uruguay and Mexico. Each of these countries has its geopolitical reasons, but a serious case of human rights violations proven by the ICC puts Mexico and Uruguay in a complex situation.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights is Michelle Bacheletwhich for months has become distracted by the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. Last weekend, faced with Maduro's bloody crackdown, the former president of Chile had no choice but to question Hugo Chávez's successor. "Venezuelan government must force security forces to stop using excessive use of force against unarmed protesters and ordinary citizens"said the High Commissioner.

The Lima group does not believe much in Bachelet and, diplomatically, asked him to get involved in the Venezuelan crisis. Point six of the final resolution of the Bogota summit "decides to promote the appointment by the United Nations Human Rights Council of an independent expert or commission of inquiry on the situation in Venezuela"and reiterates"Your call to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to react as quickly as possible to the situation in this country"(Venezuela) In other words, without so much diplomatic euphemism: Bachelet, we already know that you have sympathy for the regime, but we need you to fully play your institutional role at the United Nations.

The Venezuelan crisis contains a paradox in the international system. Neither the UN nor the OAS have been able to support the support that Maduro brings together in these multilateral organizations. Russia and China block Security Council sessions, and Uruguay and Mexico paralyze Argentina, Colombia and Brazil's proposals to the OAS to apply the democratic clause to the leader populist.

In this sense, in point 7 of the final resolution, the countries of the Lima group "They therefore encourage debate on the current situation in this country (Venezuela) in the United Nations Security Council and will continue to deal with it within the Organization of American States."

At the United Nations, the key to sanctions against Maduro is in the hands of China and Russia. The founding states of the UN, victors of the Second World War, have a right of veto. If Beijing and Moscow do not decide to release Maduro – for whatever reason – it will be impossible for the UN to manage its relative power in order to mitigate the brutal effects of the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.

The members of the Lima group "appeal to nations that still maintain cooperation with Nicolás Maduro's illegitimate regime so that help facilitate the search for solutions that they pave the way for the process of democratic transition and the convening of free, fair, transparent and credible elections, "affirms point 13 of the final document of the Bogota summit. This paragraph is addressed particularly to China and Russia, but can also apply to Cuba, Iran, Uruguay, Mexico and Italy., Which present different shades in the protection and support of Maduro.

Guaidó, through his representative of the Lima group, Julio Borges, proposed do not exclude the use of force to overthrow the populist leader, who repressed guilt-free Venezuelan militants who attempted to transport humanitarian aid from Cucuta to Caracas. But the diplomatic action of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Canada and Peru froze the American outpost – caused by the statements of Guaidó and Borges – and drafted a key point (16) of the final communiqué of the Bogota summit.

The countries of the Lima group "reiterate their conviction that the democratic transition must be conducted by the Venezuelans themselves in a peaceful manner and in the framework of the Constitution and international law, supported by political and diplomatic means, without recourse to the force ", they raised without euphemisms in front of the indirect claim of the White House.

Until now, The game of failures between Trump and the Lima Group is played without big surprises. However, an external event of such magnitude that the detention of Guaido on his return to Caracas or the failure of the diplomatic measures proposed yesterday by the Lima group can give a decisive advantage to the President of the United States, who has time on the clock as your circumstantial adversary.