Why experts think children could be the new hotbed of the pandemic

In the fall in the northern hemisphere, the concern of European and American health authorities is centered on the spread of the virus in children under 12, with very contagious variants. This group, currently not reached by the vaccines developed to stop the coronavirus, is experiencing a significant increase in the rate of circulation of the infection, a situation that could make it the new reservoir of Sars-CoV-2.

Following the announcements of the labs Pfizer and BioNTech that its development against the coronavirus had been shown to be effective and safe at low doses in children aged 5 to 11 years, The pressure is now on the regulatory authorities to know when he can start injecting.

The caution is explained, on the one hand, by the return of boys to school, and on the other hand, by the increase in infections in a population that still does not have an approved injection to vaccinate them. In Spain, for example, children under 12 have become the group that circulates the coronavirus the most, as the spread continues to decline in all other age groups. The cumulative incidence among the lowest as of Monday was 123.3 cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days, while the average for the entire population stood at 83.4 cases.

Debate over vaccination of children under 12 unresolved with efficacy data from Pfizer and BioNTech. Indeed, for several months the two laboratories have had to multiply their tests to verify the harmlessness and tolerance of their serum in children in order to guarantee its good results and its tolerance. However, vaccination between 5 and 11 years of age arouses greater mistrust than in other groups.

So, despite the possible approval of the US regulatory agency (FDA) and its European counterpart (EMA) by the end of this year, How many parents will vaccinate their children? The question has not yet been answered.

However, what happened in the group of older boys can be referenced. At United StatesSo far, only about 40% of children ages 12 to 15 have been fully immunized, compared to 66% of adults, according to federal data. . The numbers indicate that parental acceptance of vaccination declines as the child’s age decreases.

About 20% of parents of children aged 12 to 17 said they did not intend to vaccinate their children, according to recent work from the Kaiser Family Foundation. The “definitely not” group fell to around 25% for parents of children aged 5-11 and to 30% for parents of children under 5.

With only a few weeks of activity, after the summer vacation in the northern hemisphere, cases of infections are increasing without being alarming. However, Experts aren’t sure how the virus will affect childhood in the coming weeks, so they only asked that rapid antigen testing and traces of contagion be increased to contain possible fall outbreaks.

For Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist and member of the Scientific Council of France, “The vaccine is one of the ways to ensure that children return to normal life and from that point of view that is important.” At the same time, the French expert believes that the vaccine will arrive “not before 2022”.

Half of adolescents aged 12 to 17 in France have already received a first dose of the vaccine. Fontanet maintains that “school is the most complex situation that awaits us this fall. According to our models, half of new infections will occur in children because they are not vaccinated. And no one has a miracle recipe “

Looking at the graph of the evolution of the pandemic, the situation in Spain seems to be important for specialists. Even given that the country has a full vaccination rate of over 75 percentage points, one of the best in the world.

Despite the higher incidence in boys under 12, the Iberian contagion curve continues to decline at all ages. However, in this group he does it more slowly. In the country, with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the incidence decreases as age advances: among 20-year-olds it is 87.7; in the 1930s, it was 87.1; in those from 40 to 82.6; it drops to 66.1 in people between 50 and 59 years old; the sixties mark 63.6 and the seventies, 63.7. Among those over 80, the figure is slightly higher, at 89.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The results of the Pfizer trial are encouraging, but a step. They were also expected by many authorities who want to guarantee educational activity, but fundamentally the health of schoolchildren and teachers. However, the green light will ultimately depend on the examination of the data that the laboratory will have to transmit to the regulators.

After that, there will also be a debate between the health authorities of each country, which could cause a first dose for children not to take place this year. The doubt is about the risks and benefits: if it is a group where the possibility of becoming seriously ill or dying is extremely low, the application is worth it with benefits that can be defended mainly in the adults.

The biggest opposition is that vaccines are not a barrier to the spread of the virus. In other words, vaccinated children do not guarantee that they will not continue to be vectors of contamination. Here, serious protection against cases of complex infections, a rare thing in children under 12 years old.

Experts add different criteria when resolving its use. Considering the differences in your metabolism and immune system, scientists disagree on which dose to give, which the trials should clarify.

For the moment, China cleared Sinopharm vaccine for use in children ages 3-12 in August, after completing phases 1 and 2 of the trials in this population group. Authorities reported that 96.1% of people vaccinated with two doses had produced antibodies and no serious side effects were reported. The United Arab Emirates also made the same decision with the same vaccine developed in China.. In Cuba, on September 3, a vaccination campaign for babies from 2 years old was launched with Soberana 2, designed and produced on the island.

Since the beginning of September, Chilean health authorities have approved the use of Sinovac vaccine against Covid-19 for children 6 years and older. Thus, the country is the first in South America to take this step and, moreover, it is the first in the region in terms of fully vaccinated population, with almost 74% of its inhabitants having a full vaccination program.

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