Why is the resurgence of tensions between Russia and Ukraine dangerous?

MOSCOW.- Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have rebounded with a large Russian military deployment of more than 80,000 troops at the border – according to the Ukrainian government complaint – and new clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Kiev forces, who called on the Western powers for help.

This is what we know.

Fight with the separatists

In eastern Ukraine there are regions inhabited by pro-Russian separatists. Kiev forces have waged a war since 2014 against these separatists who took control of these territories. After intense fighting that caused more than 13,000 dead, the conflict has diminished in intensity since 2015 and the last ceasefire, decided on last year, has been generally respected. But, in early 2021, there was an upsurge in violence, mainly mortar and artillery battles, in which at least 29 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, up from 50 in 2020.

Russian deployment

In parallel, Kiev accused Moscow of deploying troops on its borders, estimating on Monday around 83,000 soldiershalf of which is in Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. Russia did not deny the deployment, but insisted it “did not threaten anyone.” Instead, he denounced the Ukrainian “provocations”. On Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the dispatch of troops to the west and south of the country, saying it was a response to NATO’s “threatening” acts. Shoigú says troops deployed over the past three weeks are carrying out “military exercises”, which will last for another two weeks. Two Russian military analysts, Vassili Kashin and Alexander Goltz, estimated that these units numbered around 100,000 soldiers. Washington noted this week that there have never been so many Russian troops deployed on the borders with Ukraine since 2014.

Western support in Kiev

Western allies of Ukraine have shown their support for this former Soviet republic, What aspires since 2014 to join NATO and the European Union (EU). The US and Europeans have warned Moscow against any attack, while US forces in Europe have raised their alert levels. This Tuesday there were two signs of support. US President Joe Biden called Vladimir Putin and asked him to stop the military escalation. And also NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg asked Moscow to withdraw its military reinforcement “unjustified” at the borders with Ukraine. Kiev, however, urges the West to provide “practical” support beyond words. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski called for speeding up his country’s NATO membership.

For now?

Experts present several possible reasons for this escalation. Many observers believe that Moscow and Kiev they test biden to see how ready he is to help Ukraine and challenge the Kremlin. Other analysts believe that Russia wants to send a message to Ukraine, who recently imposed sanctions on one of his pro-Russian MPs, Viktor Medvedshuk, close to Putin, and banned three TV channels linked to him. Others believe that the Kremlin wants to generate a patriotic impulse among the Russians before the parliamentary elections in September. The main Russian opponent, Alexei Navalny, is imprisoned, but the official party, United Russia, is very unpopular.

Will there be war?

Experts agree that, for now, a Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikelydespite particularly strong tensions. “There is a new low in relations between Russia and NATO […], the worst time since the end of the cold war, ”said Kashin.“Moscow’s rhetoric is extraordinary, we haven’t heard it so intense since 2014 and the annexation of Crimea”says Timothy Ash, a London-based analyst. While peace negotiations may provide a solution, mediation efforts by France and Germany have produced little progress in recent years. New discussions do not seem to be planned either: Zelensky claimed to have sent a request to meet with Putin at the end of March, without receiving a response.

Agencia AFP

THE NATION