Why Nicolás Maduro does not fall and how does Venezuela continue?

In the future of the Venezuelan panorama, the final resolution of the multidimensional crisis that crosses the country remains an enigma. In this direction, Military forces are the piece of a puzzle that indiscriminately deepens this scenario, are the only ones that seem to be able to twist the country's political future.

The reorientation of the military support is, for the moment, the only alternative of Juan Guaidó to aspire to reach the palace of Miraflores.

The international and partly popular support (no less than Chavism continues to retain about 6 million votes) can hardly bring about a real change in the political orientation of this figure, unknown to the vast majority until beginning of this year.

The truth is that, although on January 23, some of the troops gave up repression in several parts of the country, the Venezuelan leadership and high command promptly claimed the government of Nicolás Maduro, which is partly his government.

Today, the regime controls weapons, so that a potential civil war would only be possible if the armed forces were divided.

A dictatorship?

Those who logically answer this question will do so with their own subjectivity. What everyone understands through democracy in the theory, as well as through the day-to-day pbadage and information that is accessed, will eventually shape an answer.

Political science often talks about the elasticity of concepts. The idea that a term is used so frequently and in the same number of circumstances that it ends up losing a single meaning. Democracy or populism are examples.

Apart from the theory, there is the practice and it is certain that in the exercise of the policy, the guarantees for the oppositions in Venezuela are not. Political prisoners, disqualified opponents and a judiciary as a local arbiter give shape to a fully authoritarian political system.

This does not erode political support for Chavismo and does not explain the crisis the country is going through. Venezuela is experiencing a multidimensional crisis, not because of the authoritarian reduction of the party in power, but because of extremely poor management.

Democracy as justification, interference as practice

This is not the first time in Venezuelan history that the United States recognizes a self-proclaimed president in Venezuela. On April 11, 2002, Pedro Carmona took power. It lasted 47 hours and ended up in jail.

The neoliberal recomposition that the region has experienced in recent years has a common denominator in foreign policy in Venezuela. With the United States in mind, the big homeland now seems closer to Iran or Russia than to Ecuador or Colombia.

In the name of democracy, these governments have decided to turn their backs on Lugo in Paraguay or Dilma in Brazil. Today, in the name of freedom, they reject respect for self-determination and the sovereignty of peoples, a fundamental principle of international coexistence.

Is this a coup d'etat of Guaidó?

The arrival of Juan Guaidó as "president in charge" opened a new chapter of the Venezuelan crisis. Faced with the steady increase in national difficulties, a figure has arrived which, to the detriment of its attributes, presents an international consensus of similar proportions.

Is it a coup d'etat, as Maduro said? No, but it is unconstitutional. Unlike traditional coups d'etat, presidential interruptions are currently handled by constitutional institutions. In the case of Venezuela, neither the military want the power, they already have it, nor the Parliament is able to dismiss the president, it does not have the way.

What to expect from uncertainty?

Any forecast in Venezuela would seem imprudent. Day-to-day transita with chapters separately and escalations in popular manifestations can be incalculated.

For the moment, the government has faced with relative calm the initial dilemma of what to do with Guaidó, but it is also clear that rhetoric and the military image increasingly accompany Nicolás. Maduro.

For next Wednesday, The president of the National Assembly called for new mobilizations throughout the country, addressing his speech to the armed forces. With a guarantee law and an amnesty for members of the armed forces who want to break the Maduro-led government, Guaidó is seeking support from Chavismo's main supporter.

The truth is that the situation is deteriorating rapidly and that the costs of the crisis are borne by the population. In this sense, the vote of an amnesty law for the military that recognizes the new presidency (in case an appeal to the elections would support it) aims to eliminate the last bastion that is based on the son of Chávez.

Uncertain times in an unprecedented crisis. We will have to be attentive and closely follow the evolution of events.