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By Fernando Vilella
The consumption of animal protein in the world is historically led by the fish, 190 million tonnes, with a growing share of aquaculture (now 51%), and then continues hog production about 112 million tons, the bird virus with 90 million and the vaccine with 60 million, stagnant for several years. China produces about 50% of pigs.
Total consumption of meat in developed countries is about 76 kg, with pork, poultry, beef and mutton being added in developing countries of 34 kg and over. the world average is 43 kg, to which must be added 19 fish. In Argentina, we are well above these values, since in beef, we are between 57 and 60 kilosabout 43 kg of chicken meat and about 15 kg and 1.5 kg of lamb in pork that becomes strong; It makes a sum of about 120 kilos per inhabitant and per year. This is almost three times the world average and 60% more than in developed countries. On the back on fruits and vegetables.
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75% of the world's production and consumption of pork is concentrated in three regions: China, the European Union and the United States., and has experienced significant growth, increasing by more than 80% over the past 30 years. The big player is China, leading producer, importer and global consumer. It produces 55 million tonnes and imported 1.5 million tonnes in 2018.
As mentioned, 50% of the pigs in the world are in China now suffering from a serious disease, African swine feverthat some estimate that it generated a loss of between 25% and 30% of the rodeo, that is to say a loss of about 12.5% to 15% of the world population of pigs. This loss is about 15 million tons and it will take 2 to 5 years to recover it.
All of these animals, except the pasture-fed part, they are fed a corn base as a source of energy and soy as a source of protein, being China's leading global buyer of soybeans and one of the fastest growing importers of corn. For this reason, having affected his rodeo significantly, we expect a sharp increase in meat imports, intended for the world's largest middle clbad, which has also incorporated meat significantly. Imports of soybeans or possibly corn also decrease, which will take between 3 and 5 years to recover.
The main exporters of pork are the European Union and the United States. among them are about 70% of the total with an interesting role of Brazil with 7,5%, 625,000 tons, which is about all that produces Argentina.
The strong case is Chile, which exports 185,000 tonnes of pork and a significant amount of chicken. In the spotlight, because Chile is a country that produces neither corn nor soya (about 70% of the cost of food) and pays in full without deduction, while Argentina will export more than 60% of corn as grainin this record season and more than 90% soybeans, in the form of grain or by-products, oil and soybean meal, both from Chile and from the beginning.
In Argentina, consumer preference for pork and its production has also increased. At the moment, domestic production is destined for the domestic market and marginally for export, these drinks are very good because it releases consumption of beef red meat and increases its export quota.
This week there is great news that is the opening of the Chinese marketBut we must not forget that in reality, it is only a very good sign to promote investment. Because? Why China imported 1.5 million tonnes and would have an additional deficit of 15 million and Argentina now produces 600,000 tonnes, that is to say the equivalent of 4 days per year of Chinese consumption.
Today or immediately, it could provide small amounts of symbolic value, but if it can be very important to generate interesting business designs based on investments allowing us to export, we can take as example what happened in the United States, where China bought the main refrigerator, it will surely be very aligned with the need to supply your market. It will be very important to export other meats such as beef and chicken from Argentina.
The pig is a big grain processor in high quality animal protein, expanding in Argentina, with huge growth potential, according to one of Argentina's leading experts Eduardo Terrado, $ 5,000 of facilities and 1,200 working capital are needed for each mother until the first sale. The need for financing appears and the decision to flow capital, which is done only under very favorable conditions of recovery, will occur.
To produce a Chilean-type module, 200,000 tonnes of exports requires an investment of about $ 360 million, for example $ 1 billion. If this is done, a lot of work and grain processing will be generated, development. In the first case, they will use only 400 000 tonnes of maize and 200 tonnes of soybeans, and three tonnes in the second.
In short, the pig is a central player in the global bioeconomy and in our country is gaining space, but we are only at the beginning of the birth of this company this should have been central for a long time in Argentina's development strategy.
Editorial note: The author is director of the bioeconomy program of the Faculty of Agronomy of UBA (Fauba)
Source: Miter and the field
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