Why the Iberian Peninsula turns left while the rest of Europe goes right

At the beginning of the millennium, in 10 of the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, the left-wing parties. None had too radical proposals, but all occupied this margin of the ideological spectrum in their respective countries.

Over the past 20 years or so, especially over the last decade, the continent has moved in the opposite direction, with a reversal of which the scope is still unknown. At the moment, the relationship is the opposite of that of early 2000: in 10 out of 15 countries, it governs the right.

In some cases, it is parties that tend to center, such as Angela Merkel's Christian Democracy, which shares power in Germany with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). But others go to extremes.

Sebastian Kurz, for example, is Chancellor of Austria through an alliance with the Freedom Party. from Heinz-Christian Strache, who has a platform with ideas almost openly xenophobic. Another case is that of Italy, where Giuseppe Conte became Prime Minister following an agreement reached between the unclbadifiable 5-Star Movement and the League, by Matteo Salvini. Deputy Prime Minister regularly quotes Mussolini, rejects the commemoration of the day of the liberation of fascism and prevents the entry of ships saving shipwrecked immigrants.

But this phenomenon that Europe is experiencing has the exceptions Two of them are located in the Iberian Peninsulaand it was not so long ago, they were hard to imagine.

The socialist party of Pedro Sánchez won last Sunday the Spanish legislative elections. It is not yet known whether he will form a government in solitude, minority or whether he will be united to Unidos Podemos, which would give him an even more leftist profile. Just three years ago, the PSOE had the lowest vote since its founding and Sánchez had to give up the party presidency.

António Costa came to power in Portugal totally unexpectedly in November 2015. The Socialist Party, of which he has been Secretary-General since 2014, organized one of the worst elections in its history in 2011, following the resignation of Prime Minister José Sócrates for the rejection of his economic plan by the Parliament.

Costa came second in the 2015 electionsbut as the liberal Pedro Pbados Coelho – the successor of Sócrates – did not get the necessary support to return to power, was able to access it through an alliance with the Communist Party and the Left Bloc.

These two cases show that neither the trend is unanimous nor irreversible, and they modify the center of the badysis in a region in which the only thing that stood out was the steady progression of the far right. However, both governments have weaknesses, difficult problems to solve and their uncertain future.

The debacle of social democracy and the rise of the far right are almost parallel processes that occur in the vast majority of countries in Western Europe. France gave a strong testimony to the elections of 2017.

The Socialist Party, which ruled for 14 years with François Mitterrand between 1981 and 1995 and who came back to power with François Hollande in 2012, He ranked fifth with only 6% of the votes. At the same time, the National Front has not stopped growing -The National Association of today- Marine Le Pen, who finished third with 21.3% and 33% in the second round. He was far from the liberal Emmanuel Macron, but it's a turning point for a far-right party.

This might even be understandable in a country with a chronic unemployment rate of about 10% and a stagnant economy. But It is curious that this also affects Germany, the great European power and one of the most prosperous nations in the world.

The SPD is in free fall since 2005, when Gerhard Schröder left power and badumed Merkel. In the last election, it barely exceeded 20%, which is unknown. Not far away was Alternative for Germany (AfD), which got 12%. It was unthinkable that a force of 94 xenophobic leaders entered the Bundestag with a country that had buried these ideas in the decades following the Holocaust. One can say something similar about the rise in Italy of a party like the League, which manifests so much sympathy for fascism.

"We can not forget that Spain and Portugal left the far right dictatorships much later than Italy and Germany.. Franco died in November 1975 and the Salazar regime ended the carnation revolution of 1974. People over 55 years old remember perfectly what it means to live without political freedoms, without parties, unions and the right to protest. . In Italy, however, fascism appears to be too distant a memory and many young people, especially those of lower cultural level, living in neighborhoods characterized by social degradation, end up being attracted by extremist ideologies such as neo-fascism ", explained Giuliano Tardivo, professor of sociology at the University Rey Juan Carlos, accessed by Infobae.

While it is true that the left seems to have survived in better conditions in Portugal and Spain, it would be wrong to say that it has not experienced a crisis. The sudden departure of Socrates from power in 2011 and his meager result in the following elections are clear proof of this.. In the same way, the PSOE was crushed by Mariano Rajoy's PP in 2011 and it was even worse in 2015 and 2016.

"Spain has in common with other European states the so-called crisis of social democracy, since from the third way, Tony Blair (Labor Prime Minister of the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2007) and Schröder, and even before, Much of social democracy has been devoted to copying the neoliberal agenda and systematically defrauding its voters, which has given wings to populism and nationalism, "said Rafael Rodríguez Prieto, professor of philosophy of law and politics at Pablo de Olavide University, in dialogue with Infobae

The idea that there was no place for the far right in Spain faded last December, when Vox, the party founded by Santiago Abascal in 2013, garnered 11% of the votes in the Andalusian elections. After 36 years, the PSOE had to leave the presidency of the Governing Council and Vox is part of the alliance with Citizens that allowed the inauguration of Juan Manuel Moreno, PP.

But the logic that prevails in general elections is another. Sanchez, who became president in June 2018 for winning a vote of no confidence against Rajoy after the PP was convicted of a corruption case, It was better than expected. For the PP, much worse.

"From one side," continued Rodríguez Prieto, "we have a government that has called for elections after failing to approve the general state budgets". On the other hand, we have the PP, a party affected by corruption cases, which have had a significant impact on their electoral expectations. It was a very responsive campaign. Citizens voted against. A game against Sánchez and his possible agreements with separatist parties. Another, against a possible coalition between PP, Ciudadanos and Vox. This fear was a relevant factor, as the three parties presented a highly neoliberal program, perceived by voters as a threat to the welfare state. "

The history of Costa in Portugal was different. In fact Corruption has affected his own party: Socrates spent nearly a year in jail and is still waiting in a money-laundering case and tax fraud. What was decisive, it is the economic crisis that went through the country, which required a drastic adjustment program of the Prime Minister Pedro Pbados Coelho (2011-2015).

"The cases of Portugal and Spain are not comparable to understand the rise of social democracy. The first is due to the erosion of the center-right government of Pasos Coelho, which has had to face the worst moments of the economic crisis, as well as Costa's ability to present itself as an alternative government benefiting external support from other leftist groups. . This formula has worked quite well to get out of the crisis with formulas of fiscal discipline and redistribution policies, in a country like Portugal, small and without problems of territorial structure, "he said. Infobae sociologist Eduardo Moyano Estrada, professor at the Institute of Higher Social Studies.

Change of time or ephemeral turn?

"As for the future, the cases of Portugal and Spain are also not comparable. The big challenge of the Costa government is to maintain economic recovery with policies that combine fiscal discipline and equality, in a context of economic slowdown. In Spain, however, the main problem is the Catalan territorial question, which will continue to condition the policy, "said Moyano Estrada.

Costa has already shown signs of strength. Although he is far from being a majority, his government has managed to survive successfully during these four years. But in October, he will have to prove his efficiency in general elections if he has the support to stay in power.. The economic situation can be an obstacle, since to grow from 2.8% per year in 2017, it has fallen to 2.1% in 2018 and should end in 2019 with a low 1.7%.

The challenges are even greater for Sánchez. From one side, will have to keep its promises of greater well-being, despite limited resources. On the other hand, it will have to defeat the separatist threat, which can become an insurmountable obstacle.

To dismiss Rajoy and take his place, Sanchez needed the support of Catalan independence. As he subsequently refused to allow them to hold a referendum, they refused to approve the budget, which forced the call for elections last Sunday.

Even though its number of seats has increased considerably, the majority is far from having to adopt essential laws. it's not clear if he can get it without appealing these votes. The PSOE will not be a simple governance.

"In Spain, we have the problem of the nationalists of the Basque Country and Catalonia, with a supremacist ideology that is not very generous and sometimes even racist," said Rodríguez Prieto. Sometimes social democracy has been weak with these groups who question the equality of all citizensno matter where they live, as a national unit. These parties have divided their own regions, opposing Catalans or Basque nationalists to those who are not. "

In the absence of a truly successful government, the PSOE is exposed to regaining the level of support it had two years ago, barely enough to be the first force of opposition , and almost. In that case, what seemed like a turning point in a path that went down was only a parenthesis.

"I do not know if this exception will last long. I fear the effect of contagion: normally, when the weather hardens in Germany, Italy or France, other countries generally follow the same path. The appearance of Vox is a sign in this sense. It was believed that Spain was immune to the far-right virus, although a minority, even in the Iberian Peninsula, had made its appearance. According to what we have seen, contrary to what happens to the liberal and conservative right, it seems to receive a lot of support from the popular and younger clbades, "concluded Tardivo.