why the illusion reigns that Manaus is a “wall” and that Argentina can get by

Is it possible that the variants of Covid Gamma (“ex” Manaos) and Lambda (“ex” Andina) have mounted a wall that prevents the proliferation of Delta in Argentina? Would we be the global exception, or is this another illusion, like the one we invented in 2020?

While some, like the Minister of Health of Buenos Aires, Fernán Quirós, assure that Everything that goes up must come down, that is to say that the advance of the Covid in the northern hemisphere will be replicated in the south, there are those who – like his counterpart in Buenos Aires, Nicolás Kreplak – consider that a certain quality of the Latin variants -american generates a “blocking” effect against Delta, the version of the coronavirus with better “physical shape” and greater contagiousness.

Bugle contacted five experts from Switzerland, Brazil, the United States and Argentina, who agreed that there are many reasons to believe that Delta is going to happen and cause a third wave.

Far from alarmism, the following lines seek to point to an opportunity: with infections on the decline, the impact of the wave will depend on the vaccination rate and the oil (or rust) of the already known care mechanisms. .

Illusion and reality

Emma Hodcroft is a molecular epidemiologist, researcher at the University of Bern, Switzerland, and responsible for CoVariants.org, a site dedicated to the global genomic surveillance of Covid.

When this medium consulted him for the strange delay of Delta’s advance in Argentina, Hodcroft highlighted a problem also mentioned by Jorge quarleri, biochemist, Senior researcher at INBIRS-UBA-Conicet: the limitations in obtaining diagnoses when data is scarce.

In other words, we know there is no Delta community traffic, but are we sure?

According to Quarleri, “compared to the United States, the United Kingdom or Israel, where the genomic characterization is done with a large number of samples, exploring the new infections, in Latin America, we tend to be quite slow ”.

Hodcroft confirmed, “Questions like these are difficult to answer. The information in CoVariants it comes from sequences made available to the public. Sadly, we don’t have that many in much of South America, and they’re not that recent. “

Although more evidence is needed, “it appears that Delta has eliminated most of its competitors; only a handful of cases caused by other variants are observed ”, assured the researcher, adding:“ In fact, in Brazil and Ecuador, where there are recent data, Delta is also expanding ”.

Skill

That Delta is a “born winner” has also been confirmed by the geneticist dedicated to infectious diseases. Alexandre bolze, from the American helix genomic monitoring group. He said that “in the United States, Delta has clearly moved Gamma” and “also beats Lambda”, A variant with few cases out there, which“ decrease from low to very low levels ”.

Fernando Spilki is a renowned Brazilian researcher at Feevale University, who coordinates the University Network for Genomic Surveillance Corona-ômica / BR-MCTI. Bugle contacted him because the “photo” of Delta there might be here premonitory.

Spilki said that the progress of this variant is taking place at a pace, for the moment, “slow and unbalanced” between the Brazilian states. It influences (among other variables) the vaccination rate, depending on the area of ​​the country, as in Argentina.

“The vaccines, even partially administered, as well as the wide distribution that Gamma has had in recent months, can make Delta’s trip a little more slow. Corn this reality could change quickly“, he warned.

Especially in Rio de Janeiro, in the Federal District, in the south and in São Paulo, “the delta is advancing”, he stressed with concern, and pointed out that in some cases, the acceleration hands down Gamma.

“As there are almost no strong control measures other than the use of the jugular and vaccination, we cannot rule out a new wave of infections,” he summed up.

Renato stein, another Brazilian expert but dedicated to pediatric infectology (professor at the School of Medicine of the Catholic University of Porto Alegre), considered that “no one has the perfect answer, but it is inevitable that Delta will enter. In Brazil, there are places where between 60% and 80% of cases are already due to this variant ”.

In some areas of Brazil, the prevalence of Gamma is still around 95%, but in others, as Stein pointed out, it is decreasing and giving way to Delta. In Argentina, the genomic sequencing of Country project indicates that Gamma prevails in the 65% of Covid cases.

If it is possible to affirm that the advance of Delta on Gamma, here, it would be important as in Brazil it is because, in terms of vaccination, these countries are still: a little less than 60% of the population has at least one dose (Argentina beats Brazil) and just over 20% (Brazil beats Argentina) have a full regimen.

Now if there was a third wave, Wouldn’t it be logical, with these percentages, to think that it would be weak or not very virulent?

Spilki preferred caution: “It’s a new scenario. The vaccination had effects that we are already seeing, but we cannot be sure of anything. I hope we don’t get through the terrible death toll that Gamma has caused. It is the wait, seeing the effects of Delta in other countries ”.

Latin wall?

Neither Spilki, nor Quarleri, nor Hodcroft, nor Stein have favored the possibility that the Latin American variants possess a certain quality which “in substance” allows them to block the advance of Delta. At least, Quarleri said, “there is no proof.”

It would be more logical to attribute a slow progression of Delta to a significant immunity of the population, than in the case of some countries. would expose the very low diagnostic capacity during the pandemic.

“Before underestimating the advance of Delta, you have to have some elements of judgment to think that there is a wall,” said Quarleri, adding two worrying points.

The first is that “we don’t know if there is a delta or a lot of deltas. We’re looking at “blue eyes”, but that eye color can be on one type of Delta or on an entire tree. The more the virus replicates, the more it can be refined. “

The second is a peculiar x-ray of Argentina which makes it even more difficult to predict the potential effects of Delta: “There are 22% of the population with two doses, but we are one. multi-storey mosaic”.

“Complete and incomplete vaccinated, vaccinated in February and vaccinated now, convalescents known and unknown; unvaccinated and non-convalescent, or “virgins”, the expert listed, and concluded: “The panorama of virus hosts is very heterogeneous. You don’t have to stand still in front of Delta, a variant, I think, still crouching. Vaccination must be considerably accelerated ”.

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