Why the macro-economy has exploded | Eco Panorama …

The directory of central bank started debating the imposition of capital flight controls and dollar purchase limitin a range of 50,000 to 100,000 a month, the day a group of international banks requested the cancellation of a $ 2,600 million loan. This is what happened on Tuesday, August 20, 11 days ago, when the financial entities called for the repayment of credits, called REPO, for the devaluation of public securities used as collateral. This was a sign of a crisis of confidence by some of the closest government entities, such as HSBC, Citi, Credite Switzerland, Santander and BBVA, which preferred to guarantee currency repayment rather than renewing the currency. funding. The monetary authority therefore admitted that it would be very difficult to avoid the regulations so hated by Mauricio Macri, at the risk of exposing oneself to greater dangers, such as the disorderly restructuring of the public debt and unilateral postponement. short-term bill payments. However, the president resisted the evidence at that time and continued his delusions leading Argentina to another historic disaster. Now the country is in fault and the Central Bank is dragged to establish basic provisions to contain the reserve hemorrhage. Late and bad.

The incongruities of the government brought on the spot the ghosts of the worst moments of Argentina. Escape from investors in pesos and dollars is now unleashed. Macri can not stop it because, as acknowledged IMF delegate Alejandro Werner, a power vacuum is being created. The Central Bank will soon apply new limits on currency exit and purchase of dollars because of the dynamics of the crisis. It is hoped that his task will be more effective than the executive power with other actions he had previously despised and which he also had to adopt because of the imposition of reality, such as the creation of essential prices, the reduction of VAT on the products of the basic basket or the payment of the salary plus by decree. Another virtual recognition that Let's change the model From the first day, the situation was inconsistent in the Liaison Office sectors, which recognized the need to withhold exports at the source in the midst of the social debacle. There is only the Mouth of the river tomorrow will be the last coded.

The government manages the crisis and supports Fernando de la Rúa and Domingo Cavallo in 2001. The results go in the same direction. he International Monetary Fund He is as responsible now as it is. The same as the hegemonic press that made them swell. The day after the announcement of the "reperfilation" of the debt, Clarin He concluded that the measure was intended to "calm the markets". They went as well as up 8% at the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange on the Friday before the OSP, because they thought Macri was competitive. The crisis has reached such a speed that operations generating expectations are falling faster and faster.

The absurd explanations of the president and most of the leaders and legislators of the ruling party, who intend to badociate the ongoing fire to what happened after the OSP, do not make that increase mistrust towards the casting. Affirms how it goes Macri that all this is happening because Alberto Fernandez He made an impractical statement last weekend, explaining why the country risk exceeded 2500 points, the interest rate is 85% and the dollar 65 pesos.

The exchange did not start after STEP. It started in April of last year, when the price of money went from 20 to 26 pesos. At that time, there was no In front of all and Fernández was not on the radar as a presidential candidate. Elisa Carrió He asked for peace of mind and guaranteed that the dollar would remain at 23 pesos, which is "the inflation-prone value of balance". It was not even close. Macri ran for help from the IMF without asking anyone. It has plunged the country into a fiscal and monetary adjustment program that, obviously, would only flatten the recession. But he did not hesitate to ask the Argentineans to fall in love with Christine Lagarde. The race continued in September, when the dollar reached 40 pesos. At that time, they had already been ejected Federico Sturzenegger and Luis Caputo from the Central Bank, taking with it the famous inflation targets. Income from Guido Sandleris As president of the BCRA, he was at that time. There, the zero emission plan and zero budget deficit was put in place, as was an extension of IMF credit to the unpublished figure of $ 57 billion, the highest in the history of the IMF. 39; body. The interest rate has reached 60%, "temporarily," said Sandleris. But the race did not stop. In May this year, the dollar rose to 46 pesos. And Monday, August 12, after PASO, the government let it advance to 60 pesos. That day, Macri reproached the electorate for turning their backs and spoke at 4 pm, when luck was already set. A week after, Nicolás Dujovne He was no longer Minister of Finance.

The race that evaporates the reserves now terrifyingly is the same one that began last April. The government has never controlled it. It was only beginning with more debt and more adjustment. Strictly speaking, it was the entire Macri government. He spoke about the exchange rules inherited from Kirchnerism and started to go into debt. There was never more plan than that. It was clear that this policy would lead to an epidemic.

minister Hernán Lacunza He is expected to attend a congressional meeting on Wednesday to explain the debt restructuring plan. How much will the dollar be that day? And country risk? The government raised the trust of even those who supported it the most. Entrepreneurs and financiers who have applauded rabies are now more angry at the policies they have advocated. The opposition must prevent Cambie from producing another Megafield like that of De la Rúa and Cavallo. The crisis of 2001 showed that letting a government do more disasters capable of driving the country into the abyss was too expensive. For something the experience should serve.