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He climbed more than 4% on Monday
Since last week, it has accelerated the dollarization of badets that previously relied on the peso. Central Bank will seek to absorb more cash
Never he he can underestimate at dorlar in the Argentina. The move bullish of the ticket come back a be new aftereds of a extended byíodo of the peace J & # 39; swap What había convinced even a the own the officials of the Bank Central. There is barely two weeks, the discuss in the cícircle írespondent of Guido Sandleris was cuano I went a pause the gang lower of not interventionornot: the Paris indicated What was imminent.
All it exchangeor at less by now, and the ticket green I decidedor advanced in directionornot in front. So of What the the week past ascend almost 4,5% in way of vacation and small liquidity in square, this one On Monday byor other surprise (and sudden) hiking.
This one move escortNOT the devaluations What he they saw in the coins of the regionornot. In Brazil, the dorlar sustainedor 2,73% and in MedMexico the the weight ascendedor mas of 1%. In the Argentina, he AMPLIFIERSor with a hiking of the 4,13%.
¿he acabor the truce? Nobody in the The city he play a saying Yes what it's gone to mark a turn of 180 degrees. C & # 39; saying, Yes the dorlar –What appearedía Carry on flawless towards the zoned lower of the gang of not interventionornot– to reinforcea his path bullish.
Why what soon, the the House of this one the week showedor nail climbing of almost $1,5 in the channel wholesaler (or operate the great the players) up $39,05; while What in the retailer he comeor a to sell a $40 in some the banks, what What has begunor a generate doubts about of what What he can arrive a happen.
The jump provokeor even a oversight bigger by Party of the Central. "he I observedor volatility by nail series of factors. In the market monetary not he perceived aúnot these the effects, already What he renovateor the the totality of the due dates of Leliq without modifications in the rate of court" they indicated the sources of the entity.
The BCRA go a road a overfilled by second month consecutive his target of the growth no of the based monetary, and to followa oversight cordially the market for absorb all excess of liquidity What I could to exist.
Precisely, the plan official for to calm down the badge American pbad by make all what necessary for to follow absorbent liquidity surplus and así reduce the pressureornot bullish of the ticket.
¿Whated isa by the way in the The city? segúnot they badured a iProfessionnel in the tables of of money of some the banks private, there is many reasons What they explain this one recent increase:
1.- Bigger request of the businesses for cover the the gains What había got with your Paris in weight
2.- The closing of the operations of carry trade towards end of month
3.- The bigger go out of funds of investors foreign What they were positioned in bonuses shorts of the Government in change local
4.- The rare offer of change by Party of grain warehouses o mining, already What not isanot liquidation
The indicators a to follow
"There is flux imbalance in the market of change What dan Place a this one jump of the dorlar" lookNOT the boss of nail of the tables of of money What mas operate in square.
segúnot advirtior the executive a iProfessionnel, in the prorximos días habra What to follow of close the stock of terms fixed of the system financial. "In a moment, with the great fees prevailing, he I gave nail profit of mas of 10 points vía carry trade. Now it yield lowor and to start a impact" henotator
To confirm in some the banks What the disarm of positions in weight happens of made nail the week. "Now he made mas obvious because disappearanceor the flow of offer and, in switch, he at product a advancement of the dollarizationornot of December" has explainedor nail of the the sources.
Why what soon, in what What go of the month, the What había to bet by rest in weight not can celebrate. C & # 39; What the rate of the 50% annual –What pay nail placementornot a deadline adjusted by Badlar is saying, for amounts upper a a millornot of weight-, "loses" Yes the Type of switch he raise $1,5 o mas.
Already What the rate he monthly (he to divide it 50% by 12 months) the "profit" is of small mas of the 4% by each month. As the ticket green already notor of $35,50 a $39 in November, pulverizor almost 60 días of "bike financial" made with the terms fixed wholesalers.
For Federico Furiase, director of Eco Go, the jump of the ticket green at meaning. "J & # 39; was close of the gang lower, the Central comeía go down the Type of intereds, the expiry of the Baccalaureat letor a lot weight in the circuit and the market already know What in December the Central he can to expand the based a 6% by the adjustment seasonal" henotator
In his visionornot, the uncouple enter the Download of the risk país and the stability J & # 39; swap not bea durable in the the weather. addingas, consideror What the risk país and the expectations of devaluationornot him they put a apartment a the rate Badlar Required for What the great the players Armen a deadline fixed in time of dollarise.
Why other side, what occurred is nail call of Warningornot for Guido Sandleris and team, already What comeía validate a decline of the Type of intereds with the dorlar in low. Now, it the scene he overthrowor and not bea so faeasy to follow reductionedNdola.
Yes the ticket ladder, even, couldía destabilize a the deporsitos a deadline What they anchor the Leliq (the rate notor of the peak of 73,5% a the current 61,24%.
Starting in December, the facility will eliminate the minimum return on these securities by 60%. In this way, there will be no more limit to the reduction (fees), which will result from the stand-off between the banks and the BCRA.
"Now, we settle at 100%, the problem is that there is a rate of surplus on the side of the monetary program but with regard to the stability of term deposits," added Furiase.
Because?:
1.- Banks have excess liquidity (due to credit rationing), which means that the BCRA has the opportunity to continue lowering Leliq's performance and achieving its monetary base objectives.
2.- Especially, considering that in December will come the seasonal adjustment of 6% of the monetary base, which, from a level of overrun of the program up to the November 15, could raise it to 10% ($ 122,686 million)) and validate the par value against the reopening of parity
3- Entities have no choice but to maximize the credit spread by placing the increase in term deposits with Badlar in Leliq, in order to offset the increase in arrears of credit portfolios. .
4.- On the stability side of fixed terms, Badlar is conditioned by the risk-free rate of US Treasury bonds, country risk and devaluation expectations (inflation expectations).
"There is nothing left here, if the rate cut is offside, there is a risk of a break in the dollar / interest rate balance and the stability of Leliq-funded deposits, which is why BCRA is very good, go step by step with lower investment returns, "he said.
In the city, at least, this rise in the greenback could reduce the low interest rate. "It's a wake-up call from the powerhouse," they badured from another leading foreign exchange market. In his vision, the scale "is tied with threads."
"It is true that the level of the rates is high, but the variables are not ordered December is a month of strong demand for pesos but also dollarization at the end of the year and holidays. To this we must add that in 2019 the folklore begins. policy If they do not keep the interest rate high, the public will go to the dollar"he said.
The badge American couldía open the Tuesday other time towards top, dryúnot believe in the the banks private, for "test" the reactionornot of the Bank Central. Yes Carry onúa go down the fees, bea nail henotat of What the entity isat "corthe fashion" with a Type of switch high, reason.
But it couldía be dangerous and shoot nail bigger dollarizationornot when, exactly, he había achieved a balanced aftereds of a anoto while the who the What to bet by the ticket green, clearly they won.
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