Why the sanctions imposed on the national oil company PDVSA are a bold step for the United States

The United States took a bold step to demand the fall of the Venezuelan President,

Nicolás Maduro

: announced
sanctions against the state oil company of this country, PDVSA.

The company is providing essential revenues to Venezuela, which according to Washington would be used by Maduro and his government for purposes of corruption and to maintain control of the country.

"Today's action guarantees that they will no longer be able to plunder the badets of the Venezuelan people," said White House National Security Advisor John Bolton.

This occurs less than a week after the head of the Venezuelan National Assembly,

Juan Guaidó

, self-proclaimed "president in charge" of his country, on the basis of articles 233, 333 and 350 of the Constitution, which Maduro considers a "coup d 'etat".

The company provides a vital income to Venezuela, which, according to Washington, is used by Maduro and his government for the purposes of corruption and to maintain control of the country.

Guaidó was immediately recognized by a dozen countries in Latin America, by Canada and, which provoked more international troubles, by the United States.

If the recognition of Guaidó was a surprise action of the government of

Donald Trump

, the sanctions against PDVSA represent a fearless financial movement.

This is a measure that Washington has been weighing for a long time, but that until now, it had avoided because of the impact it could have on a country already in economic and humanitarian crisis.

"It was feared that the targeting of the oil sector would lead to an even bigger collapse of the Venezuelan economy and increased suffering for the Venezuelan people," said Mark Feierstein, former director of continental affairs at the Council of Europe. national security. government of

Barack Obama

.

"Now, we probably have the feeling that the Maduro regime could be on the ropes and that this is the kind of effort that could advance and achieve a regime change," he said. added.

The military factor

Venezuela sent an average of about 500,000 barrels of crude oil a day to the United States last year, nearly half of its exports to the rest of the world.

Although these oil shipments in the United States have decreased by less than half in recent years and still generate much of the cash flow of the Venezuelan national oil company.

Last year, Venezuela sent the United States an average of about 500,000 barrels of crude oil a day, nearly half of what the country exports worldwide.

Bolton said the United States expects these measures will block $ 7 billion in PDVSA badets and reduce exports by $ 11 billion next year.

Analysts agree that this raises another test for the support of Venezuelan Armed Forces leaders in Maduro, as the army controls oil production in the country.

"The most important player right now (in Venezuela) is the army and, to the extent that you can drown their resources, it might incite them to change sides," said Feierstein, currently senior adviser to the Albright Stonebridge Group.

Maduro, who accuses Guaidó of attempting a coup with Washington's support, reacted quickly to the sanctions announced against PDVSA, calling them "illegal, unilateral, immoral and criminal".

The president said that he would go to court to overturn the measure, but avoided giving details about it.

The US Treasury Department said that revenues derived from the purchase of Venezuelan oil by US companies could be withheld from the Maduro government and released if Pdvsa came under Guaidó's control.

Citgo, the US subsidiary of the Venezuelan oil group, could continue its operations if its revenues were deposited in a trust, said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

For its part, Guaidó announced through

Twitter

the "transfer" of the Venezuelan financial audit to his government and the appointment of new boards of directors of Pdvsa and Citgo.

"An extra shot"

Various experts had predicted that if PDVSA did not receive more money for its sales in the United States, Maduro would seek to reduce these exports while the army that controls the company continued to respond.

One possibility for Maduro would be to look for alternative markets. In fact, Venezuela already places another part of its oil exports in China and India, but it receives less money because it is used to repay the debts badumed by Caracas, said Francisco Monaldi, a university professor. Baker Institute of Rice University. in Houston.

"It's not that they can not export the 500,000 barrels elsewhere, but it will be harder, more expensive and with lower margins (profit).

"Therefore, this will be an important additional blow for the (Maduro) government and will most likely lead to further production declines," Monaldi said last week.

But a closure of the US market It may also return to the Maduro government more dependent on the support of Russia and China, badysts agree.

"This is a major concern," said Christopher Sabatini, professor of international relations at Columbia University in New York, before Monday's announcement.

"This would imply more power from China and Russia in the Venezuelan economy," he added.

Something like this would have an adverse effect on the Trump government, which wants to diminish the influence of Chinese and Russians in Latin America.

On the other hand, experts have warned that US refineries located in the Gulf of Mexico area needed Venezuelan heavy oil to maintain their production rates.

The influential sector of Trump's Republican Party recently called on the White House and Congress to avoid any restrictions on imports from Venezuela.

Some studies indicate that a reduction in these crude purchases would have a relatively minor impact on the price of gasoline in the United States. and the government could downplay it if it released oil from its strategic reserve, Monaldi said.

But he added that for refineries designed to process heavy oil from Venezuela, it would be difficult to find alternative suppliers.

"The price of heavy oil will increase relative to light oil," said Monaldi.

"And that will lead to a decline in the profitability of the refineries, which could have a political effect, because it is Republican areas that have asked Trump not to do it."