Why the specter of terrorism and political violence has returned to Northern Ireland

"What we see is a new generation of terrorists"said Jason Murphy, the police detective from Northern Ireland responsible for the Lyra McKee case a week ago.

A video captured the moment in which one of the rioters pulled out a gun and fired. Several people were arrested for the murder but later released for lack of evidence against them. However, the New IRA, one of the many divisions of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) who rejected the signing of the 1998 peace accords, acknowledged the killing on Tuesday.

"During an attack, Lyra McKee was tragically murdered while she stood beside the enemy forcessaid the organization in a statement apologizing to the family, which is the "new breed of terrorists" to which detective Murphy has referred.

Talking about a civilian killed by political violence in Northern Ireland brings the worst ghosts to the center of the stage. For 30 years, this small territory of 1.8 million inhabitants has experienced an armed dispute known as Troubles ("Conflicts"), who faced Republicans – Catholics – who sought to unify Ireland by force, with Unionists – Protestants – who wanted to stay in the UK.

Some 3,500 people died as a result of the clashes. The majority of them are victims of IRA attacks, but many of them are also victims of abuse committed by British forces. The peace and dismantling of the main armed organization has brought about a substantial change in the lives of the Northern Irish, but the differences persist.

In this context, Brexit was the worst thing that could happen. If the United Kingdom has left the European Union without an emergency plan, the Republic of Ireland remaining in the interior, a hard border would be restored between the north and south of the island, which could generate new clashes between the two parties.

In addition, the polarization that wakes up the debate on the future of relations between London and Brussels has revived latent tensions. Almost no one is pessimistic enough to predict a return to the worst conflict, but Lyra's death eventually eclipsed the panorama.

The video showing the moment Lyra McKee is rescued amidst the riots after receiving the shot that killed her

From the Brexit Island Division

Ireland was divided in 1921. This was the corollary of the War of Independence that began in 1919, but was part of a much older process related to the fight against discrimination against Catholics, who were the majority on the island.

The division took place because in the northern districts there was a very strong presence of Protestants, who had much closer ties with the English than with the rest of the Irish. In 1922, the Free State of Ireland was created in the south of the country, which, a few years later, would be the current Republic of Ireland, totally independent of the United Kingdom.

The big problem in the north is that there remains a very significant proportion of Catholics – currently 40% – who remains in a very disadvantageous situation, noting a few kilometers away the desire of a country in its own right. The violence erupted in the late 1960s as a result of a series of demonstrations that resulted in the deployment of British Army troops and the construction of walls of isolation and control of the British. Catholic and Republican communities.

"When the conflicts started in 1969, The Catholic community had many legitimate demands, such as the lack of housing and jobs and the injustices it suffered. The British government has not responded to the needs of a large portion of Catholics living in Northern Ireland. When the march for civil rights was deemed ineffective, political violence emerged, "said Dominic Beggan, government professor at Lone Star College in Montgomery, Texas, accessed by Infobae.

Many paramilitary groups have appeared on both sides. The most important of the Republican side was the IRA Provisional, supposed to be the heir of the IRA of origin., who was the force that had fought in the war of independence. Over the years, it has become a powerful urban guerrilla capable of high-impact attacks, most of them with an undeniable terrorist overtone.

On the Unionist side, the Ulster Volunteer Force, considered responsible for some 500 deaths, was highlighted. More than two-thirds were Catholic civilians without involvement in criminal activities.

To these irregular groups were added the police and the army of Northern Ireland, also responsible for many abuses. The best known is the Bloody Sunday ("Bloody Sunday") from 1972, which also took place in Derry. Royal soldiers dispersed protest, shooting 28 unarmed citizens, 14 of whom died.

After three decades of an argument that kept the country paralyzed, On April 10, 1998, "Good Friday" was signed, ending the conflict. A cessation of hostilities was agreed and the IRA initiated a process of disarmament that ended with its dissolution in 2005, although many of its leaders continue to participate in politics through the intermediary of Sinn Fein, his party arm.

Negotiation has not only involved the pacification of the country. It was also established that the relations between the two Irlanda were much more fluid, and The Northern Ireland Assembly was created with the goal of increasing political autonomy and allowing a joint government Unionists and Republicans. But it has never been fully operational because of the deep differences between the parties. In fact, since 2017, the position of Chief Minister, who is the head of the local executive, is vacant.

"The fundamental problem in Northern Ireland is that the 1998 peace agreement has not been followed by reconciliation. There is a lot of animosity between the Catholic-nationalist and Protestant-Unionist communities. The main political parties, namely Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), hate each other. Both sides worked hard to prevent reconciliation. As a result, it is possible that more extreme groups are developing, such as the New IRA, "he said. Infobae Roger Mac Ginty, Professor at the School of Governmental and International Affairs of the University of Durham.

The differences have deepened since 2016 thanks to Brexit. Republicans are against and trade unionists are not only in favor, they want it to be radical. In fact, they strongly oppose the call backstop, a series of guarantees to prevent the establishment of a hard border in Ireland. An approach seems farther than ever.

"Brexit has caused immense uncertainty," said Ginty. The British government has the supreme power in Northern Ireland, but it's a zombie government because of this process.. This has allowed a situation of drift to persist. The Assembly created under the Good Friday Agreement has been collapsing for over two years and London has done nothing about it. "

The new IRA and the perspectives of violence

The True IRA, called the new IRA since 2012 after its union with other groups, first appeared in 1997 in the form of a split of the IRA provisional., in rejection of peace dialogues. His main targets are members of the police and the army, which he attacks from time to time with guns and explosives.

"They have been trying to murder officers, soldiers and prison officials since 1998, when the True IRA killed 33 people in a car bomb attack. in Omaha, County Tyrone. They want to force the British state to leave Northern Ireland. They ignore the reality that the IRA of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness have come to recognize: the main obstacle to the creation of a united Ireland is not found in London, but in the desire of the Unionist community of stay in the UK, "said Henry Patterson, professor Emeritus of Ulster University's policy, in dialogue with Infobae.

The last time they managed to reach public opinion before Lyra McKee's murder was March 7, 2009, when they riddled two soldiers from the 38th Engineer Regiment near the Mbadereene barracks, in the city of Antrim. These are the first British military casualties in Northern Ireland since 1997.

The new IRA appeared in 2012 as an amalgam of several dissident republican activists. Oppose the commitments made in the peace process, believes that violence is justified in the search for a united Ireland and has little support, although enough to support a low-level campaign. It is much weaker than the temporary IRA, but it will not evaporate in the short term, "he said. Infobae historian Richard English, professor at Queen's University in Belfast and author of various books on violence in Northern Ireland.

However, beyond the turmoil generated by the case of Lyra and the anxiety aroused by the political uncertainty that prevails today in the United Kingdom, The consensus of the badysts is that there has been no increase in incidents so far.. We must not lose sight of the fact that, without the talent of the shooter who had wanted to shoot the soldiers, there might not have been a death.

"Low levels of sometimes fatal violence have been the norm in Northern Ireland in recent years," continued English. In most cases, they do not appear in international headlines because there are no deaths. But attacks against the police are frequent, especially from dissident Republican groups. So violence does not really grow. "

On the other hand, even if conflicts multiply in the months to come, there is no reason to imagine that it would be possible to return to the worst moments. The social situation has changed dramatically in recent decades and the people have already seen the benefits of peace.

"The new IRA is made up of a few dozen activists with little popular support and it does not represent anything like the IRA of Adams and McGuinness in the 1970s and 1980swhich is the result of a long history of political domination and discrimination in housing and employment. All this happened a long time ago and there is now a large Catholic middle clbad that depends to a large extent on the public sector and receives financial support from the UK Treasury. In other words, there is no material base or clbad for the new IRAsaid Patterson.

In addition, the resources available to the British government today are much higher than they were in the 1970s, when urban insurgency was a relatively new phenomenon. London invests heavily in security and counterterrorism systems. This would require a structure that, for the moment, the new IRA is far from having.

"I believe the tragic death of Lyra may be a turning point that will help reduce political violence in the futuresince he met in condemnation to broad layers of the community and two radically different opponents like the DUP and the Sinn Féin. In the end, I am convinced that the vast majority of Catholics and Protestants living in Northern Ireland do not want to return to the dark days of conflict, "concluded Beggan.