Why the victory of the indigenous movement does not have …

From Quito

There are celebrations in Ecuador. They started Sunday night when eThe national government and the indigenous movement, grouped centrally in the Coordinator of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), announced that they have reached an agreement with respect to the 883 decree, the one that removed the subsidies to gasoline.

The reaction was twofold. From one side, The streets were full of euphoria after what was considered a victory after eleven days of demonstrations in the face of heavy repression. The battle scenario of downtown Quito was then applause, honking horns, trucks loaded with people carrying flags of Ecuador, taxi drivers, working-class neighborhoods.

On the other hand, The question was asked exactly what had been achieved. It was an immediate and effective repeal, as announced and celebrated by CONAIE, or a no-date substitution, as announced by President Lenín Moreno on his Twitter account.

Part of the response was clarified by the statement of the United Nations in Ecuador, mediator in dialogue, which stated that "Decree 883 is canceled" and "will immediately work to develop a new Decree allowing a subsidy policy, with a global approach, to ensure that these are not intended for people with greater resources and smugglers, with criteria of rationalization, targeting and sectorization.

The same Sunday evening, the commission was set up for, informed CONAIE, the "drafting of the decree which replaces it – at 88 h 3 – it only ends when the agreement is fully realized".

In this way a partial victory was obtained in the set of measures agreed between the government and the International Monetary Fund, decree 883 having the greatest impact on the economy and the symbolic battle. The end result of this bias will depend on the new adopted decree.

Apart from the dialogue space, there was also, until now, an agreement on a procedure for investigating the actions and abuses committed by the security forces of the United States. State that have claimed the lives of at least 7 dead, 1,152 detainees and 1,340 wounded.

Was there a chance to win a bigger victory? This question groups the main questions. According to those who played in the conference, that is, CONAIE, there was none. And the mobilizations, although not only of the indigenous movement, have mainly focused on their capacity for action, in Quito and in the roadblocks in the country.

Another scenario has been developed in parallel with the debate on the decree: the persecution of the leaders of the citizen revolution, the political space of the former president Rafael Correa. This action had been announced by Moreno when he had cleared of responsibility for the acts of violence perpetrated on the back of Correa. The government's tactic was to recognize indigenous peoples as legitimate interlocutors and to criminalize correismo.

The deployment of the persecution began during the days of mobilization: the woman of the Assembly, Gabriela Rivadeneira, had to take refuge at the Mexican embassy and the former mayor Alexandra Arce was arrested. In the early hours of Monday, the prefect of Pichincha, Paola Pabón, was arrested at his home and in the morning, the house of the former deputy Virgilio Hernández was raided.

These arrests and persecutions through the judiciary, expressed in media belief, add to past cases, such as that of former Vice President Jorge Glas, that of the Former Foreign Minister Ricardo Patiño, a refugee in Mexico, and that of Correa himself.

Thus, Ecuador advances several times simultaneously: that of the celebration of the partial victory of CONAIE and the popular mobilization which lasted eleven days, that of the persecution of the correismo as part of Moreno's political attack on his opponent , and the same government that had to surrender the decree 883, but who seeks how not to modify it substantially.

In this table, an element of greater complexity emerges: the differences between a part of the management of CONAIE and correismo., which took several years, were highlighted via Twitter during protest days and were at the forefront of the dialogue when indigenous movement president Jaime Vargas attacked the citizen revolution.

Ecuador, which begins today its first day with a decompression of mobilizations, lives a complex scenario. The Moreno government will not stop trying to neoliberalize the economy, which the IMF deepens, as well as its alignment with the United States, as the epicenter of its foreign policy. What will be the next steps for CONAIE? What will the correismo do to the political persecution? The pieces are moving.